In today’s briefing:
- Prisoner’s Dilemma For Ukraine
- Gold: YOU AIN’T SEEN NOTHIN’ YET!
- Trade War Winner & Losers – Where To Invest?
- Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 21 April
- Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 21 April
- [IO Fundamentals 16/2025] Robust China Data and Shrinking IO Inventories
- Actinver Research – CADU 1Q25: Weak Quarterly Results as Expected (Quick View)
- CX Daily: China Writes First Legal Rulebook to Strengthen Its Vital Private Sector
- Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 21 April
- Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 21 April
Prisoner’s Dilemma For Ukraine
- Ukraine cannot avoid painful settlements as the US and Russia pull its resources apart. Europe has no veto over US taxpayers and can’t block all attempts to loosen sanctions.
- Further progress to peace is likely over the next few months. If the US walks away from talks, it is most likely dropping support too, postponing peace while Russia gains more.
- Intensifying support would raise risks along a hard-fought market-negative path. Risks will also remain more elevated in Korea after Ukraine’s misguided incursion into Russia.
Gold: YOU AIN’T SEEN NOTHIN’ YET!
- Gold’s advance is accelerating in the face of increased global uncertainty and inflation expectations.
- The price is now asymmetric based on various economic outcomes, including a renewed safe-haven status during the global trade war.
- The ratio of gold to the S&P remains at depressed levels but is starting to reverse as the S&P continues its bear market.
Trade War Winner & Losers – Where To Invest?
- Our top buy calls are the Philippines, India, Japan, Malaysia, Taiwan and Europe.
- Least vulnerable: Russia, Brazil, Philippines, South Africa, Indonesia, India and Malaysia. Most vulnerable: Vietnam, Taiwan, Mexico, Thailand and EU.
- Countries facing the highest reciprocal tariff rates, with large surpluses vis-à-vis the US and high gross exports to GDP ratios will buckle first.
Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 21 April
- Global base oils prices stay firm vs feedstock/competing fuel prices.
- Firm base oils margins point to tight supply and strong demand.
- Firm base oils margins incentivize refiners to raise base oils output.
Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 21 April
- Asia’s Group II base oils prices hold firm relative to prices in regional markets like northeast Asia so far this year.
- Asia’s Group II base oils prices hold firm relative to prices in more distant markets like Americas so far this year.
- Asia’s firm prices complicate arbitrage, reflecting tighter-than-usual regional supply late last year and in early-2025.
[IO Fundamentals 16/2025] Robust China Data and Shrinking IO Inventories
- China’s economy grew 5.4% in Q1 2025, matching Q4 2024 and beating forecasts, as manufacturers boosted exports ahead of Trump’s tariffs.
- China’s March retail sales (+5.9% YoY) and factory output (+7.7% YoY) beat forecasts, accelerating from Jan-Feb growth as economic recovery gains momentum.
- Iron ore inventories fell further in April, with both SMM and CISA reporting weekly drops. Weather-disrupted port operations tightened supply, supporting prices, though US-China trade tensions add demand uncertainty.
Actinver Research – CADU 1Q25: Weak Quarterly Results as Expected (Quick View)
- Total revenues in the quarter decreased 10% YoY, practically in line with our estimate, mainly due to weak performance in the housing revenue row.
- In contrast, the other revenue segment (land sales) reached P$60 million, a 21% YoY contraction (25% below our estimate), representing 7% of total sales.
- The weak housing sales performance was due to a substantial 33% YoY contraction in total units, explained by a soft opening of new projects in the affordable entry-level in Cancun and Playa del Carmen and the gradual improvement in the construction of new projects in Jalisco and Quintana Roo (which are expected to be concluded during the 4Q25).
CX Daily: China Writes First Legal Rulebook to Strengthen Its Vital Private Sector
- Law / Cover Story: China writes first legal rulebook to strengthen its vital private sector
- Drugs /In Depth: Popular overseas expansion strategy holds pitfalls for Chinese drug developers
- Jobs /Analysis: How China can cushion jobs blow from Trump’s trade war
Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 21 April
- Asia’s base oils prices stay high relative to feedstock/competing fuel prices even as they edge lower.
- Firm margins point to tight supply-demand fundamentals.
- Margins hold firm even with demand fundamentals showing signs of easing and some plant maintenance work drawing to a close.
Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 21 April
- Seasonal rise in US base oils demand likely to be more muted as concern about economic slowdown incentivizes blenders to maintain lower stocks.
- Weak demand and rising surplus supply typically puts more pressure on export prices before domestic prices.
- US base oils domestic prices instead fall while export prices hold steady so far in April 2025.
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