In today’s briefing:
- Rebound To Resilience
- Actinver Research – GDP 3Q-25
- Actinver Research – Inflation Forecast (2h-Oct)
- Actinver Research – Trade Balance (September 2025)
- CX Daily: Arctic Shippers Navigate Choppy Commercial Waters Despite Geopolitical Push
- Oil futures: Crude trades in tight range, Brent eases below $64/b
- Actinver Research – Employment (September 2025)
- Swedish Rate Pause: Recovery Rising, Risks Remain
Rebound To Resilience
- The diverging services PMI and ISM resolved bullishly in October, with activity broadly back to 2024 averages. The ISM headline still looks lower because it is a composite.
- Price balances remain extremely elevated while employment’s weakness has become less acute, skewing the trade-off more hawkishly for any policymaker’s preferences.
- The broader global deterioration in PMIs and unemployment last month also recovered in the latest round of releases. These data are not screaming for any more easing.
Actinver Research – GDP 3Q-25
- In the third quarter of the year, GDP contracted -0.3% QoQ, ending two consecutive periods of growth.
- This result reflects the loss of momentum in the industrial sector, affected by weakness in construction and stagnation in manufacturing.
- In the third quarter, the economy contracted -0.3% quarter-over-quarter, in line with our estimate and the market consensus of -0.4%.
Actinver Research – Inflation Forecast (2h-Oct)
- We expect inflation for the second half of October to stand at 0.09% biweekly, amid lower pressures on agricultural product prices.
- On an annual basis, headline inflation for October would stand at 3.54%. Typically, inflation for this period averages 0.19% bw.
- Our lower estimate reflects reduced pressure from the non-core component (0.00% bw vs. 0.39% historical).
Actinver Research – Trade Balance (September 2025)
- In September, manufacturing exports maintained their strength, growing 15.2% y/y, accompanied by a 19.6% y/y rebound in intermediate goods imports, suggesting greater demand for inputs from the manufacturing sector amid the continued expansion of external demand.
- In the ninth month of the year, the trade balance recorded a deficit of USD 2,400 million, higher than our estimate of USD 1,270 million and the deficit anticipated by the consensus of USD 500 million.
- Typically, in this month the trade balance shows a deficit of around USD 1,440 million.
CX Daily: Arctic Shippers Navigate Choppy Commercial Waters Despite Geopolitical Push
- In Depth: Arctic Shippers Navigate Choppy Commercial Waters Despite Geopolitical Push
- China Creates Finance Ministry Debt Management Unit to Bolster Oversight
- China’s New Gold VAT Rules Prompt Banks to Halt Physical Gold Redemptions
Oil futures: Crude trades in tight range, Brent eases below $64/b
- Crude oil futures were lower Wednesday but benchmarks continued to trade in the narrow range in place since last week.
- Front-month Jan25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $63.54/b (2135 BST) versus Tuesday’s settle of $64.44/b, while Dec25 NYMEX WTI was at $59.62/b against a previous close of $60.66/b.
- The market has been looking for direction since Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting when the eight members taking part in voluntary cuts added another 137,0000 bpd to quotas in December, although countered this with a pause on any further increases in Q1.
Actinver Research – Employment (September 2025)
- In September, the labor market continued to show signs of weakness, with the unemployment rate reaching 2.98%, reflecting a lower capacity to absorb individuals entering the labor force.
- The figure exceeded both our estimate of 2.80% and the 2.86% anticipated by consensus, marking its highest level since August 2024 and accumulating three consecutive months of increases.
- Meanwhile, the Economically Active Population stood at 62.1 million people, up from 61.3 million in the previous month.
Swedish Rate Pause: Recovery Rising, Risks Remain
- The Riksbank left rates unchanged at 1.75%, matching consensus. Inflation is easing but is still above target, signalling little chance of cuts or hikes in the near term.
- A weak labour market offset stronger-than-expected Q3 growth. Policymakers are watching household demand closely to assess the durability of the recovery before shifting rates.
- Ongoing risks from geopolitics, trade, and fiscal policy keep the future rate path uncertain, with market pricing in steady rates through 2026 barring major shocks.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
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