In today’s briefing:
- Regional Economics: Is the U.S. Trade War Coming for Services?
- [IO Technicals 2025/40] Bearish Iron Ore Signals Collide with Simandou Halt and BHP Scrutiny
- The Art of the Trade War: IT’S FARMAGEDDON IN THE U.S. !!
- Exencial Economy Tidings 03/10/2025
- HEW: Watching What Didn’t Happen
- Sri Lanka’s Rubber Exports Recover In July Amid Deeper Woes
Regional Economics: Is the U.S. Trade War Coming for Services?
- While political and economic factors have left the sector relatively unscathed by Trump’s protectionism, new policy measures threaten trade in a sector where the U.S is a net exporter.
- The proposed HIRE Act would add a 25% surcharge on outsourcing payments. While it faces legislative delays and dilutions, it nonetheless represents a latent threat to the sector.
- India and the Philippines stand out as being most exposed due to their reliance on American IT and BPO demand. The H-1B visa changes will also hit remittances into India.
[IO Technicals 2025/40] Bearish Iron Ore Signals Collide with Simandou Halt and BHP Scrutiny
- Negative steel mill margins will likely result in production cuts that could adversely impact the near-term demand for iron ore.
- Beijing’s stricter stance on BHP and Simandou’s safety-related suspension are altering the iron ore power dynamics and tightening supply.
- Bearish MA crossover and weakening MACD signal fading momentum, with prices below key MAs, pointing to increasing downside pressure.
The Art of the Trade War: IT’S FARMAGEDDON IN THE U.S. !!
- China has skillfully used its position as a supplier of rare earths and a customer of soybeans to create leverage in trade negotiations with the U.S.
- China has not purchased any soybeans from the U.S. for the first time since the 1990’s, creating a financial squeeze on mid-western farmers.
- President Trump announced he would use some of the money collected from tariffs to bail out the farmers hurt in the U.S. trade war.
Exencial Economy Tidings 03/10/2025
- India on course to become 3rd largest economy, says N K Singh
- Forex reserves fall by USD 2.3 billion during week ended 26 September 2025
- UPI transactions volume dips 1.9% m-o-m in Sept 20 25
HEW: Watching What Didn’t Happen
- The US government shutdown removes the potential for official statistics to damp dovish concern, raising the likelihood of October’s cut, especially with other weak data.
- EA unemployment’s rise reflected rounding rather than substance. UK national accounts revealed healthy balance sheets, aside from the government, and bullish lending stats.
- Next week’s calendar stays thin with US releases suspended and Europe’s cycle focusing on the following week. The RBNZ, BoT, BSP and Peru announce rates next week.
Sri Lanka’s Rubber Exports Recover In July Amid Deeper Woes
- July exports rebound, second-best month of 2025
- Seven-month exports slip on weaker tire and tube demand
- Five-year car import ban lifted, boosting rubber outlook
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