In today’s briefing:
- Steno Signals #194 – A Mar-a-Lago Accord- or Meltdown?
- [US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/16] Henry Hub Sinks on Milder Weather and Record Output
- Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 21 April
- [US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/16] WTI Rebounds on Improved Trade Outlook and Strong U.S. Demand
- Farmers Lock Horns With Scientists Over Rubber Clone Yields In India
- The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Grab’s Initiatves, Wintermar Marine, and The Keepers.
- Greek Economy – April 4, 2025
Steno Signals #194 – A Mar-a-Lago Accord- or Meltdown?
- Happy Monday and welcome to my weekly editorial on everything macro.
- Everyone’s talking about the USD meltdown and whether it marks a seismic shift in the international system as we know it.
- Markets are clearly responding to Trump’s list of “non-tariff barriers,” which notably placed FX manipulation at the very top.
[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/16] Henry Hub Sinks on Milder Weather and Record Output
- For the week ending 17/Apr, U.S. natural gas prices fell by 8% on the back of warmer weather forecasts and rising production.
- For the week ending 11/Apr, the EIA reported that U.S. natural gas inventories rose by 16 Bcf, which was lower than analyst expectations of a 24 Bcf increase.
- Henry Hub OI PCR fell to 0.93 on 17/Apr compared to 0.95 on 11/Apr. Call OI increased by 2.4% WoW, while put OI grew by 0.3%.
Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 21 April
- Asia’s base oils demand could face more marked pressure as expectations of softer supply-demand fundamentals coincide with concern about economic slowdown and impact of US tariffs.
- Uncertainty about timing, size and impact of US tariffs adds to blenders’ incentive to maintain lower stocks.
- High base oils prices relative to feedstock and gasoil prices and relative to other regions add to incentive to hold back.
[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/16] WTI Rebounds on Improved Trade Outlook and Strong U.S. Demand
- WTI futures rose 4.1% for the week ending 17/Apr, driven primarily by U.S.-China trade talks and falling U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories.
- The U.S. rig count rose by two to 585. The oil rig count rose by one to 481, while gas rigs also grew by one to 96.
- WTI OI PCR inched up to 0.81 on 17/Apr from 0.80 on 11/Apr. Call OI decreased by 13% WoW, while put OI dropped by 11.9%.
Farmers Lock Horns With Scientists Over Rubber Clone Yields In India
- Farmers say RRII 400 clone series performs below par
- RRII Head rejects charges, tells farmers to follow guidance
- Kerala farmers demand introduction of GM crops
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Grab’s Initiatves, Wintermar Marine, and The Keepers.
- The past week saw insights on Grab Holdings (GRAB US), Wintermar Offshore Marine (WINS IJ), Japfa Ltd (JAP SP), Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM), and The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM).
- There was also a macro insight looking at Singapore’s, a piece on Indonesia’s efforts to make its rubber industry more sustainable, and two insights on DKSH Holdings Malaysia.
- The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable macro and equity bottom insights from across Southeast Asia.
Greek Economy – April 4, 2025
- In 2024 Greece’s GDP grew by 2.27%, above EU’s growth rate of 1.0%.
- Projections from the IMF, OECD and European commission suggest that this trend will continue in 2025 and 2026, with growth rates of 2.15% and 2.12% respectively.
- Inflation in February of 2025 stood at 2.54%, a bit closer to the EU’s goal of 2%.
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