In today’s briefing:
- The Month Ahead: Key Events in August 2025
- Fresh Highs = Bullish Tape
- Tariffs: Bark Worse Than Bite?
The Month Ahead: Key Events in August 2025
- Context: Central Bank rate decisions, index changes and political events can move markets and affect volatility. Exchange holidays and option expiration schedules might influence liquidity on these days.
- Highlights: Earnings season keeps several regional markets busy through early to mid-August. Meanwhile, three central banks in the region are scheduled to hold monetary policy meetings spaced across the month.
- Why Read: Plan ahead and take into account known market events when making investment and trading decision.
Fresh Highs = Bullish Tape
- The U.S. market is exhibiting a strong broad-based recovery that’s appears to be global in scope.
- A leadership rotation appears to be underway from growth to value and cyclical stocks, which would be a welcome sign of broader participation in the rally.
- The main risk to our bullish scenario is a failure in factor and sector rotation. This is consistent with our scenario of a market stall during the August–September time frame.
Tariffs: Bark Worse Than Bite?
- Q2 earnings season was supposed to be a key test of how the Trump tariffs would affect corporate earnings and margins. So far, the preliminary verdict has been relatively benign.
- We believe the consensus expectation of stagflation, below-average growth and higher-than-expected inflation is the correct scenario.
- The full effects of tariffs on inflation and growth will start to be seen in Q3 2025 and continue into 2026.
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