Daily Brief Macro: The Problems of Narrow Leadership and more

• The S&P 500 advanced to an all-time high based on narrow leadership by large-cap technology stocks.
• RSI readings are overbought, and while it’s possible the market continues to advance on a series of “good overbought” readings, a series of negative divergences call for short-term caution.
• Our base case calls for a short-term pullback or consolidation but no major intermediate-term top.

• Fenix Resources (FEX AU) commenced operations of its third mine, the Beebyn-W11, with the shipment of 60k tons from the port of Geraldton.
• Beebyn-W11, Fenix’s third operating mine in the Midwest, is now operating at the planned FY26 production rate of 1.5 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa).
• As a result, Fenix is now mining, hauling, loading and shipping at a combined run rate of more than 4Mtpa from the Company’s three mines. 

• Rapid decline in Asian inflation is opening up space for central banks to cut rates further. India’s real policy rate is almost at record high and so’s China’s.
• Fiscal space exists in economies with low public debt and low fiscal deficit – Korea, Indonesia, Thailand. China and India have implemented and articulated fiscal expansion intentions.
• Monetary policy easing supports consumption/investments through lower cost of capital and drives funds into risk assets. In last twenty years, rate cut episodes in Asia unfailingly led to equity booms.

• Trump’s pressure for a rate cut from the Federal Reserve is growing.
• The market consensus view settled at a total of two cuts in 2025, which may be regarded as overly dovish.
• Regardless of whether the Fed cuts rates in September, the big picture for investors is a trend toward financial repression. Investors should prepare accordingly.

• After a strong showing in the first quarter of 2025, the Indian economy is likely to see growth normalise. Key drivers of demand are showing mixed performance.
• Across consumption and investment, performance remains uneven across key sectors, leading to signs of softening momentum based on non-GDP demand indicators. 
• Trump’s latest tariff threat against India poses tough questions on the long-term outlook. With its “China+1” strategy in doubt, the economy needs a new playbook to fortify growth.

• Lauren is a bilingual expert in traditional investments and Bitcoin
• Institutions are moving into Bitcoin and exploring UTXO management
• Markets are experiencing unprecedented moves, with Bitcoin and gold leading the way

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.