In today’s briefing:
- Tops Are Processes
- High Drama at the 200 Dma
Tops Are Processes
- A review of the market’s technical conditions and macro backdrop is supportive of a long-term stock market top.
- The good news is, in the absence of an active policy to engineer a slowdown, there is no recession in sight.
- Our base case calls for an adjustment of growth expectations and a garden-variety bear market, which typically sees a drawdown of 20–30%.
High Drama at the 200 Dma
- The S&P 500 fell last week to test support at the 200 dma.
- Many elements of a tactical bottom are there, but not all.
- Cutting through all the news-driven noise, we believe the stock market is poised for a relief rally, though it may be in need of a final sentiment flush.
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
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