In today’s briefing:
- UK: Christmas CPI Present For Doves
- EA: Eating A Disinflationary Revision
- 2026 HIGH CONVICTION IDEA: Long Gold / Short Bitcoin (UPDATE)
- U.S. Wheat Yields Surprise to the Upside in 2024–25
- Your AI Super Forecast: Will It Boom Or Bust?
- CX Daily: China’s Developers Try to Modernize After Surge in Subpar Homes
- Oil futures: Crude off 5-yr lows as US flags Venezuela oil blockade
- Independent Environmental Signals Highlight the Drivers of Strong 2025 Corn Yield
- Breaking the Range: EM Reclaims Attention in Global Portfolios
UK: Christmas CPI Present For Doves
- UK inflation’s 31bps slowing to 3.15% went far further than expected, with significance raised by the substantial extent and the breadth of downside across divisions.
- However, the news was more concentrated at a component level, leaving the median impulse annualising to 2.3%. We still see underlying pressures driving persistent excess.
- The Governor sought confirmation of disinflation before cutting rates again, so this surprise should secure that move in December, without any commitment to do more.
EA: Eating A Disinflationary Revision
- Another downward food price revision cut HICP inflation back to 2.1% in November, but the effect was only 1.6bp, and services inflation was marginally stronger than before.
- Service prices are not converging on levels consistent with the ECB’s target, and many underlying metrics are too high. The median is a notable exception, broadly below 2%.
- The ECB’s “good place” assessment should be unaffected by any of this, nor the base effects driving things slightly below the target in January. It should sound neutral.
2026 HIGH CONVICTION IDEA: Long Gold / Short Bitcoin (UPDATE)
- Whatever economic scenario unfolds in 2026, a long Gold/short Bitcoin investment should outperform. The position is up more than 50% since October.
- As one of the most leveraged and speculative parts of global asset markets, Bitcoin will struggle as the Fed ends its interest rate cuts by the end of 2026.
- Gold continues to benefit from the Fed’s pro-inflation policies, particularly with the restart of its $40 billion monthly QE program. Continued currency debasement also supports a contnuation of gold’s rise.
U.S. Wheat Yields Surprise to the Upside in 2024–25
- The Treefera Yield Forecast System (TFFS) combines satellite-observed canopy conditions, weather histories and estimated yield sensitivities, and all these signals pointed in the direction of a record-level wheat crop from early in the season.
- High canopy vigour across major winter-wheat belts, low to moderate weather-driven stress scores, and favourable yield-response modelling collectively indicated that 2025 would deliver another above-trend national outcome.
- This integrated signal stack enabled Treefera to provide granular, county level yield and stress assessments well ahead of USDA updates, forming the analytical backbone of the report that follows.
Your AI Super Forecast: Will It Boom Or Bust?
- The outside view matters most: every major tech revolution in history ended up with overinvestment and a painful reset, making crashes the rule, not the exception.
- The inside view always feels unique all the time – but eye-watering spending, speculative capital, financial engineering, and the belief that “this time is different” were present in past frenzies, too.
- You don’t need to time the top: build a more resilient portfolio by trimming your profit, limiting position sizes, avoiding crowding, while using diversification, trend rules, or selective hedges.
CX Daily: China’s Developers Try to Modernize After Surge in Subpar Homes
- In Depth: China’s Developers Try to Modernize After Surge in Subpar Homes China’s housing market is undergoing a reckoning in quality.
- Two-thirds of new homes delivered in 2025 were rated “poor” quality, a sixfold surge in just three years.
- In response, Beijing is pushing a nationwide campaign for “good houses” — raising standards, enforcing mandatory specifications, and pressuring developers to rebuild trust after years of shortcuts.
Oil futures: Crude off 5-yr lows as US flags Venezuela oil blockade
- Crude oil futures rebounded from near five-year lows Wednesday after Venezuelan oil supplies were threatened by additional enforcement against sanctioned crude.
- Front-month Feb26 ICE Brent futures were trading at $60.24/b (2048 GMT) versus Tuesday’s settle of $58.92/b, while Jan26 NYMEX WTI was at $56.42/b against a previous close of $55.27/b.
- Crude bounced from the lowest settlements since 2021 after US President Donald Trump said he was ordering a “total and complete” blockade of all sanctioned oil tankers going into and out of Venezuela.
Independent Environmental Signals Highlight the Drivers of Strong 2025 Corn Yield
- Throughout the corn growing season multiple signals pointed towards the bumper crop yields.
- The satellite, weather and fundamental signals pointed in the direction of a huge season for corn from April onwards.
- The Treefera Yield Forecast System (TFFS) combines satellite-observed canopy conditions, weather histories and estimated yield sensitivities.
Breaking the Range: EM Reclaims Attention in Global Portfolios
- EM allocations in Global funds have broken out of a multi-year range, reaching the highest level since 2019 as underweights narrow.
- The move is led by Taiwan, China & HK, and South Korea, with strong inflows and rising fund participation.
- Despite the shift, EM exposure remains shallow and concentrated, making higher allocations a clear point of differentiation.
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