Daily Brief Macro: UK CPI Stickier For Longer and more

• UK inflation data confirmed the substantial upwards drift in the consensus, worth 0.6pp since May and 1.1pp over the past year, while matching final forecasts for August.
• The consensus has shifted further than usual over the past month. It now aligns with our hawkish forecast until April, when hope again dominates in dragging inflation down.
• Although the MPC won’t be shocked by this outcome, the persistent excess in underlying inflation still seems set to keep it holding rates. We do not expect cuts to resume.

• Supply-Led Rally: Zinc has rebounded ~15% to ~US$3,000/t, driven by mine curtailments, smelter shutdowns, collapsing TCs, and low inventories.
• China Stimulus Tailwind: Beijing’s CNY 1tn package lifts sentiment for galvanised steel, which makes up ~60% of zinc demand, reinforcing price momentum.
• Valuation Impact: Hindustan Zinc justifies a premium on pure-play exposure, while Vedanta offers cheaper diversified optionality; sustainability of prices above US$3,000/t remains the key investor question.

• Malaysia imports tires worth US$816 mn a year; China pitches US$318 mn  
• Goodyear, Continental plant closures highlight Chinese competition  
• Recycling innovations aim to capture value and boost sustainability  

• Ehsan Ehsani, executive director at Crescendo Partners and adjunct professor at Columbia Business School, joins the discussion with Harmonic Insights and will be organizing the Generative AI and Investment Management Conference at Columbia.
• Futures markets are predicting a 25 basis point cut with more cuts in the future, while volatility and factor returns continue to be influenced by macro factors.
• Quantitative investors typically do not make significant changes to their portfolios based on short-term data, instead focusing on longer-term trends and statistically significant moves.

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• Fed cuts rates 25bp as expected, with new Trump appointee Miran dissenting for a 50bp reduction.
• Labour market weakness drove the policy shift as job growth averages 29k monthly, below the levels likely needed to maintain stable unemployment.
• Projections show a 9-9 split between one or two more cuts in 2025, and only one more in 2026. The FOMC is not as dovish as the market’s pricing.

• The crude oil market in September 2025 in a state of short-term equilibrium, where forecasts of oversupply are being counterbalanced by immediate and significant geopolitical disruptions to Russian oil supplies.
• Escalating geopolitical tensions, including the ongoing risk of expanded sanctions and persistent conflicts in the Middle East, are collectively driving current price increases, offsetting the longer-term bearish outlook.
• This range-bound market scenario, characterized by conflicting factors influencing prices, suggests that strategies focused on profiting from stable prices are more favorable than those based on strong directional trends.

• India’s agri sector achieves growth of 3.7% in June 2025 quarter
• CCI sell s 1.5 mln bales under bulk discount scheme 
• Two & three wheelers sales up 11% in August 2025