In today’s briefing:
- UK: GDP Seasonal Surge Before Slowing
- Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 11 April 2025
- HEW: Sipping ECB Dove-Juice
- Real Asset Chartbook Week #2: That Was Interesting
- The Art of the Trade War: FIRST ROUND GOES TO THE MARKETS!
- CX Daily: Chinese Firms Set to Seek Alternative Sources for Key U.S. Imports
UK: GDP Seasonal Surge Before Slowing
- Fundamental causes should not be assigned to UK GDP surging far beyond consensus expectations again in February, despite the notability of Q1 growth tracking 0.7% q-o-q.
- Residual seasonality has dominated the post-pandemic growth profile, and the recent resilience merely matches it. Stagnation for the rest of the year is the consequence.
- Disruptive and volatile US trade policy will also depress the underlying economic trend beneath the spurious seasonals. We now bake both more fully into our modal forecasts.
Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 11 April 2025
India and the Philippines cut interest rates, supporting domestic growth amid easing inflation.
US inflation remains sticky, limiting chances of Fed rate cuts despite political pressure.
US-China tensions escalate with new tariffs, stoking geopolitical risks and Taiwan conflict concerns.
HEW: Sipping ECB Dove-Juice
- Market disruptions occurred over the past week due to volatility in reciprocal and China tariffs, affecting the significance of data releases such as low US inflation and surging UK GDP.
- Next week, UK unemployment and inflation data may lean hawkishly due to resilient underlying trends and the delayed impact of Spring stock in clothing store price samples.
- The European Central Bank (ECB) is also being pushed towards making another cut on Thursday due to market movements.
Real Asset Chartbook Week #2: That Was Interesting
- The second week of the Real Asset Chartbook and it has been an eventful one.
- Our custom equity indices tracking different parts of the liquid real asset universe are showing dramatic moves, yet it does not look like we have found a bottom yet.
- Probably more short-term pain to come, but everything in the real asset space was cheap before and has just gotten cheaper.
The Art of the Trade War: FIRST ROUND GOES TO THE MARKETS!
- The US treasury and dollar markets have proven to be key participants in US trade negotiations.
- In a battle of wills, Trump and Xi delay direct negotiations between the world’s two largest economies. Time is on China’s side as consumer confidence plummets in US.
- Regardless of the results of the trade negotiations, the co-dependent support dynamic for the US equity, dollar, and treasury markets is broken.
CX Daily: Chinese Firms Set to Seek Alternative Sources for Key U.S. Imports
- Tariffs / Chinese firms set to seek alternative sources for key U.S. imports
- Ad /In Depth: China’s ad market cools as businesses lose patience
- Interview /Interview: Countries should unite to fight Trump’s tariffs
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