Daily Brief Macro: UK Jobs Data And The Muddled MPC and more

• UK payroll revisions removed most of May’s weakness, while wage and price inflation is too fast, yet the BoE probably won’t back down from an August cut as the UR rises.
• Fewer payroll inflows explain its downtrend, with <24yo suffering sustained pain, but the 25-64yo endure the taxation hit, structurally raising unemployment by ~0.5pp.
• Wage growth isn’t showing signs of new disinflationary demand pressures, so we expect excessive underlying wage and price trends to persist, not helped by an August BoE cut.

• Discussing research on gold and related metals with Dr. Dirk Bauer
• Examining the valuation of gold compared to other asset classes
• Differentiating between gold’s role as a hedge and a safe haven in times of financial turmoil

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• India / In Depth: India’s sputtering efforts to boost manufacturing investment
• Jobs /: More young Chinese are giving up on the job hunt, study says
• Batteries /: China tightens export rules to protect its lead in lithium battery tech

• 80 Mile 0.24p £9.45m (80M.L) The exploration and development Company updates on its interest in Greenswitch Srl and Hydrogen Valley.
• Greenswitch has signed a Memorandum of Understanding to sell up to 40,000 tonnes per year of biofuel to Tecnoparco to use in cogeneration units.
• This shortens the supply chain and helps to increase sustainability by moving away from palm oil. 

• Another quarter with soft conditions; a slowdown across most industries is expected, along with FX-related effects in some companies and weather headwinds for some others.
• Similar to previous quarters, we forecast on average margin contraction for our covered companies, as companies struggle with a weaker operating leverage (among other factors).
• In Consumer, we are mostly lowering our PTs, while upgrading Gruma to Market Perform (from Underperform). Overall, FX remains a key factor, albeit at a lower scale vs previously expected.