In today’s briefing:
- UK: Mixed Messages On Labour Market
- Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 13 October
- Oil futures: Crude off lows as US-China trade tensions eyed
- Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 13 October
- Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 13 October
- Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 13 October
- Malaysia Rubber Market In July 2025: Growth Amid Structural Challenges
- MAS Holds Course on Tightening
- Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 13 October
- Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 13 October
UK: Mixed Messages On Labour Market
- Most narratives can find some support in the latest labour market report, preserving uncertainty that should keep the BoE on hold at least until some clarity emerges.
- Unemployment has increased (LFS) or stabilised (payrolls), while pay is shockingly resurgent (inc-bonuses), slowing as expected (ex-bonus) or stagnating (private pay).
- Weakness isn’t as clear as the consensus and press sometimes make out, but concerns aren’t invalidated. We still expect resilience to preserve excess inflation hawkishly.
Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 13 October
- US base oils demand could be steadier amid rangebound prices and signs of more muted pressure from any surplus supply.
- US base oils demand typically rises in month of October from September, before falling in month of November.
- Demand could be lower than usual as buyers and distributors work down stocks built up as buffer against weather-related supply disruptions during Atlantic hurricane season.
Oil futures: Crude off lows as US-China trade tensions eyed
- Crude oil futures opened the week slightly firmer as benchmarks recovered some of Friday’s steep losses, but markets are set to remain volatile amid renewed tariff threats between the US and China.
- Front-month Dec25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $63.32/b (1415 BST) versus Friday’s settle of $62.73/b, while Nov25 NYMEX WTI was at $59.67/b against a previous close of $58.90/b.
- Crude prices plunged on Friday as part of a broad-based financial selloff following renewed trade tensions between Washington and Beijing after US President Trump threatened a “massive increase” in tariffs on Chinese goods, citing “hostile” export controls on critical minerals.
Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 13 October
- Asia’s Group II base oils price-premium to Singapore gasoil holds in narrow range.
- Firm gasoil premium to crude oil puts more pressure on refiners to trim light-grade supply rather than heavy grades, despite persistent surplus availability of heavy grades.
- Asia’s base oils supply-surplus could face more upward pressure over coming months, even with firmer gasoil premium to crude, amid lighter round of plant-maintenance and start-up of new base oils units.
Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 13 October
- Asia Group I heavy-neutrals price falls vs ex-tank UAE price since early-August to widest discount in more than two years.
- Wider price-discount facilitates arbitrage to move surplus supplies from Asia to Middle East.
- Asia’s surplus Group I supplies rise amid pick-up in imports from other regions like Europe, as well as recovery in output in markets like Thailand after plant-maintenance work.
Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 13 October
- Global base oils prices mostly hold firm versus feedstock/competing fuel prices amid further drop in crude oil prices.
- Mostly-steady outright base oils prices and lower crude prices cushion impact of strong gasoil premium to crude oil.
- Strong gasoil crack-spread incentivizes any refinery moves to trim output levels to focus more on light grades than heavy grades.
Malaysia Rubber Market In July 2025: Growth Amid Structural Challenges
- Production jumps 36.7% month-on-month
- Exports surge, led by China demand
- Smallholders face ageing and skills gap
MAS Holds Course on Tightening
- MAS holds policy steady as Q3 GDP beats 2% consensus with 2.9% growth, core inflation at 0.5% for 2025.
- The central bank is less dovish on 2026 easing as the output gap stays positive through 2025, near zero in 2026.
- Tariff risks are contained as pharma exemptions are negotiated, and AI investments support manufacturing resilience.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 13 October
- Asia’s base oils demand could stay more cautious as signs of healthy stocks and rising supplies curb urgency to buy.
- Any need to move surplus supplies to markets beyond Asia could put pressure on adjustment in prices to make those shipments more feasible.
- Any such moves, and the subsequent prospect of additional price-pressure, could add to attraction of procuring smaller volumes more frequently.
Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 13 October
- US base oils prices remain in narrow range vs feedstock prices.
- Steady margins sustain incentive for refiners to maintain or raise output at time of year when demand typically starts to slow.
- Persistently-steady margins and increasingly squeezed stocks in first seven months of 2025 suggest fundamentals remain balanced even with incentive to maintain higher output.
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