In today’s briefing:
- US Shutdown: A Means To An End
- Asian Equities: Southbound Monthly- Below September’s BABA Exuberance Biotech Continued to Flourish
- Thailand Defies Consensus with Policy Hold
- Q4 Outlook for Our Investment Themes Part 2 – Asian Equities
- CX Daily: China to Launch New Visa to Lure Young Tech Talent Amid U.S. Curbs
- RBNZ Cuts OCR to Stimulative 2.5%
- Oil futures: Crude holds on to gains after another US stock build
US Shutdown: A Means To An End
- The Democrats opted for a US government shutdown despite the Administration being well prepared for what it sees as an opportunity to promote its longer-term agenda.
- While they hold out, the president’s ‘grim reaper’, OMB Director Russell Vought, will have a free hand to cut the size of government and pursue his unitary executive vision.
- Some of his actions will undoubtedly be challenged in the courts, but the signs are that the Supreme Court will continue to side firmly with the Administration.
Asian Equities: Southbound Monthly- Below September’s BABA Exuberance Biotech Continued to Flourish
- Southbound net buying jumped sharply to US$24.2bn in September. This was the highest ever. So was the average daily trading volume of US$20.3bn. Alibaba constituted 40% of total net buying.
- Tencent, SMIC, Meituan were bought heavily, while Xiaomi and Pop Mart continue to be sold. Investors are likely avoiding the sectors with disorderly price wars and stocks with super-premium valuations.
- In H2’25, the biotech companies, Innovent Biologics, XTALPI and Akeso are Southbound investors’ favorites. The buying momentum could continue here as long as the tailwind of frequent licensing deals lasts.
Thailand Defies Consensus with Policy Hold
- BOT holds rate at 1.50% in a 5-2 vote, surprising 70% of economists who expected a 25bp cut, citing limited policy space and timing concerns amid economic uncertainty.
- Economy faces 2H25-2026 slowdown from US tariff impacts, with exports declining and GDP growth revised to 2.2% (2025) and 1.6% (2026) despite a front-loaded boost.
- Credit contraction continues affecting vulnerable SMEs while inflation at -0.72% remains below target, but the dovish new governor signals potential future easing.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
Q4 Outlook for Our Investment Themes Part 2 – Asian Equities
- How have our major investment themes performed so far in 2025?
- Review of the performance of the major markets and asset classes we focus on
- We revisit our outlook for each of those asset classes for Q4 25
CX Daily: China to Launch New Visa to Lure Young Tech Talent Amid U.S. Curbs
- Visa / China to Launch New Visa to Lure Young Tech Talent Amid U.S. Curbs
- Wahaha /Exclusive: Wahaha Heiress’s Confidant Investigated for Disciplinary Violations
China-India /: India and China to Resume Direct Flights After Five-Year Suspension
RBNZ Cuts OCR to Stimulative 2.5%
- The RBNZ cut its OCR by 50bps to 2.5%, beyond the 25bp consensus, with unanimous committee support signalling a more aggressive stance than August’s split vote.
- Inflation is forecast at 3% in Q3 but returns to 2% midpoint by H1 2026 due to spare capacity, providing scope for further easing.
- The Committee remains open to additional cuts with the November meeting live, as terminal rate expectations fall below the previous neutral 3% estimate.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
Oil futures: Crude holds on to gains after another US stock build
- Crude oil futures were trading at one-week highs Wednesday with Q4 balances under scrutiny, holding on to gains even after US crude stocks were seen higher for a second week.
- Front-month Dec25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $66.15/b (2038 BST) versus Tuesday’s settle of $65.45/b, while Nov25 NYMEX WTI was at $62.43/b against a previous close of $61.73/b.
- The more upbeat tone prevailed even after US crude stocks were seen 3.72 million barrels higher, buoyed by more imports.
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