Daily Brief Macro: US Tariffs: No Fooling! and more

• The announcement of individual reciprocal tariff rates for US trading patterns on 2 April is a significant event for investors.
• This announcement is part of a drive to re-industrialise America.
• Despite its significance, this could merely represent the initial stages of a prolonged trade war.

• Copper pricing reporter Han Lu, sulfuric acid reporter Ong Jialun, and China content reporter Lucy Tang share insights on copper market trends and trade flows
• China copper concentrates assessments have hit negative levels in 2025 due to tight supply and growing demand from China and India
• Smelters are running at production losses due to low TCRC but continue to buy in the market to meet output targets and maintain production levels

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Australia: RBA rate decision on 1 April. Expect no change.
• Japan: Nikkei 225 rebalancing effective 31 March at the close.
• US reciprocal tariffs will keep everyone on their toes on 2 April.

• Podcast delayed, markets rebounded last week, led by news of reduced impact of Trump’s tariffs
• Fed slowed pace of quantitative tightening, reducing pressure on treasury market liquidity
• Bitcoin and gold prices fluctuate, Chinese stocks rebound, DAX up 20% year to date, US equities impacted by tariffs and job losses

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• This is a quick note with the results of Real Estate Foresight’s annual ‘Draw the Line’ survey, which focused on China’s new home sales for 2025
• Responses concentrate in the -5% to -10% range but vary from -20% to +20%, vs -14% actual for 2024
• Jan-Feb 2025 actual figure published mid-March by NBS shows an improvement from -14% to -12% (12 months rolling vs prior 12 months)

• Confidence among consumers in China’s large and midsize cities is returning and willingness to spend is increasing, with more people feeling financially better off and expecting higher incomes this year, a new survey shows, suggesting government stimulus measures that started in September are having an impact.
• However, while attitudes on income and spending have improved, more survey respondents said prices have been rising over the past few months and sentiment toward the property market remains weak, according to the latest quarterly survey of consumers by German investment bank Deutsche Bank AG.
• The survey was conducted during the first quarter among individuals aged 18 to 65 in first- and second-tier cities.

• The Norges Bank held the policy rate at 4.5%, consistent with expectations, as inflation accelerated to 3.6% in February, well above prior forecasts, prompting delays in the signalled rate cuts.
• Strong wage growth, broad-based price pressures, and resilient domestic activity led the Committee to judge that a restrictive policy stance remains warranted for longer.
• The policy rate is now projected to fall to 4.0% by year-end, but heightened uncertainty around inflation and global trade developments will shape the timing and extent of future easing.

• Shipping /In Depth: U.S. targets Chinese shipping to ‘resurrect’ domestic industry
• Social workers /In Depth: The social workers helping patients navigate China’s health care system
• Tesla /: Tesla’s Full Self-Driving trial in China delayed by regulatory checks

• Rubber worth US$341 million exported in January 2025
• Companies initiate moves to cash in on higher rubber prices
• Tariff war may come to Vietnam’s advantage

• US recession risks persist despite no immediate red flags, with soft economic data and potential weakness in services if government spending cuts materialize.

• Japan’s economy remains stagnant, with weak consumption, declining business investment, and diminishing benefits from a weaker Yen.

• China shows early signs of recovery, with industrial profits stabilizing after last year’s declines, while India’s rate cuts could provide further market support.