In today’s briefing:
- Everything to Know About the Year-End CGT-Driven Retail Sell-Off & KOSPI Basis Move
- Potential Adds & Deletes in a Major Global Index in August 2025 As Highlighted by Locals in Korea
- SK Hynix: Good 2Q, Positive Messages but No 2026 Guidance Means that Market’s Doubts Will Remain
- Samsung Biologics (207940 KS): Bumps up Full Year Guidance Amid Strong 2Q Show and Plant 4 Ramp-Up
Everything to Know About the Year-End CGT-Driven Retail Sell-Off & KOSPI Basis Move
- If the CGT threshold drops from ₩5B to ₩1B, year-end retail selling could surge—net sales were ₩14T in Nov–Dec 2023 versus just ₩2.5T in the same period of 2024.
- Retail may react strongly this year due to higher unrealized gains and the ₩1B CGT threshold return; about 65% of KOSPI stocks still use year-end dividend record dates.
- Odds are high for a classic year-end CGT-driven retail sell-off and a sharp KOSPI cash-futures basis move, fueled by dividend uncertainty we can capitalize on.
Potential Adds & Deletes in a Major Global Index in August 2025 As Highlighted by Locals in Korea
- In this insight, we discuss the potential adds and deletes of Korean stocks in a major global index in August 2025 as highlighted by the locals in Korea.
- There are about 10 potential additions to the major global index mentioned by various local media accounts. LIG Nex1, Hyosung Heavy Industries, and Doosan Corp are most likely inclusion candidates.
- There have been three companies that have been consistently mentioned in numerous local media as potential deletion candidates including LG Innotek, CJ Cheiljedang, and SKC Co.
SK Hynix: Good 2Q, Positive Messages but No 2026 Guidance Means that Market’s Doubts Will Remain
- 2Q25 beats consensus by 5% with a number of unexpected moves: NAND and Commodity DRAM shipments a lot higher than expected, hence weaker ASP (more commodity), margins decline QoQ.
- HBM positive messages: HBM sales double in 2025, we now have secured visibility on next year’s demand”, leading to higher capex in 2025, HBM will continue to enjoy strong growth.
- But a lack of concrete numbers (HBM, eSSD % of revenue), 2025-26 Capex, capacity increase, etc means that the market will not find grounds to have a more positive view.
Samsung Biologics (207940 KS): Bumps up Full Year Guidance Amid Strong 2Q Show and Plant 4 Ramp-Up
- Samsung Biologics (207940 KS) maintained positive momentum in 2Q25, with consolidated revenue and operating profit rising 11% and 9%, YoY, respectively.
- Leveraging on strong 2Q result and successful ramp-up of Plant 4 providing additional momentum, the company has revised annual revenue growth guidance upward to 25–30% YoY from 20–25%.
- Going ahead, the company is planning to shed its biosimilars subsidiary, Samsung Bioepis, to “focus on strengthening its core capabilities as a pure-play CDMO.”
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