In today’s briefing:
- WTI Bear Triangle a Growth Negative
- MSCI ACWI Uptrend Break; Defensives to Shine; Ideas in Staples, Health Care, Telecomm, Utilities
- Tencent Short Cover Target
WTI Bear Triangle a Growth Negative
- WTI’s bearish flat/triangle is setting up to break lower and a harbinger of weaker growth in coming months amid a stronger USD.
- Bearish oil also gels with our stronger dollar and weaker demand view. It will also bring energy shares back to earth.
- New low targets at 69 and 65 then review for a tactical recovery attempt.
MSCI ACWI Uptrend Break; Defensives to Shine; Ideas in Staples, Health Care, Telecomm, Utilities
- In our latest int’l reports we have preached caution, and since January we have discussed our expectations for $93 to cap upside on the ACWI-US
- Thus far, $93 has proven to be rock-solid resistance, and ACWI-US now displays a 4.5-month uptrend violation signaling the pullback has officially begun.
- We would expect this pullback to continue down to $86-87 at minimum, and potentially $84 (December 2022 low). Even $75-77 (the 2022 lows) is not out of the question.
Tencent Short Cover Target
- Tencent faced formidable resistance at 385 where old lows and old highs coincided and was our short level outlined on January 17.
- 300 is our base line downside target. March will be a bearish month. Buy zone at sub-300.
- Macro is constructive if 270 holds. Current decline is labeled a deep correction of the October to late January rally.
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