In today’s briefing:
- Japan Morning Connection: Indian-Pakistan Tensions Adding to Geopolitical Concern
- Ohayo Japan | U.S. Stocks Slip as Fed Meeting Begins
- Monday Delight: 05/05/25
- Unmasking ‘Fake Sales’: A Hidden Challenge In Indonesia’s E-Commerce Market
- Charted Insights on India-UK Free Trade Agreement
- #142 India Insight: Tariff Dodging, Avaada’s IPO Push, and CNG Hikes Reshape Asia’s Trade, Energy
- Furniture/Furnishings Weekly: Housing Doldrums; Consumer Trepidation
- Biopharma Week in Review – Macro and M&A Boost Biotech; NVO Moves to Slow LLY Obesity Lead
- OPEC+ Pushes for Market Share, How India Can Benefit?
Japan Morning Connection: Indian-Pakistan Tensions Adding to Geopolitical Concern
- Mixed bag for tech earnings over the Japan long w/e with Lattice, Palantir and On Semi down, Lumentum and Coreweave up.
- SMCI cutting guidance a mere 1-week after releasing prem numbers threatens to erode confidence in management.
- Pharma will be under pressure after the FDA’s picks a perceived vaccine hawk for its Center for Biologics and Research and Trump hints at price pressures.
Ohayo Japan | U.S. Stocks Slip as Fed Meeting Begins
- The S&P 500 fell 0.8% as the Federal Reserve began its two-day policy meeting
- Ford Motor beat expectations but suspended 2025 guidance, anticipating a $2.5 billion tariff hit
- Mitsubishi Corp forecasts a 26% drop in net profit to 700 billion yen for the year ending March, due to the lack of significant capital gains
Monday Delight: 05/05/25
- Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention. These ideas are meant to spark your research and help you kickstart the week ahead with fresh insights.
- Because these ideas are the result of my first-level idea generation process, they require more in depth research. Therefore, the ideas will often be concise, with occasional references to valuable work from other practitioners that I encourage you to explore.
- If you have something fascinating to share that could benefit me and the wider community, don’t hesitate to send it my way—I’d love to hear from you!
Unmasking ‘Fake Sales’: A Hidden Challenge In Indonesia’s E-Commerce Market
- Indonesia’s online market category is highly dynamic and constantly evolving, with new brands, manufacturers, and sales platforms competing for dominance.
- For brands, online growth heavily depends on online market data.
- However, this reliance comes with risks, as brands often lack visibility into the true drivers of category sales numbers.
Charted Insights on India-UK Free Trade Agreement
- India is rapidly expanding its network of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), with 16 FTAs in effect and 23 under negotiation, which is the highest in ASEAN countries
- India’s trade flows are projected to grow at twice the pace of global trade, positioning the country as a major economic hub by 2033.
- The India-UK FTA and the broader expansion of FTAs across key global markets are strategically driving India’s growth in manufacturing, reducing trade deficits, and fostering innovation.
#142 India Insight: Tariff Dodging, Avaada’s IPO Push, and CNG Hikes Reshape Asia’s Trade, Energy
- Chinese exporters use fake labels and rerouting to dodge Trump tariffs, straining Asian trade hubs and triggering global customs crackdowns.
- Brookfield-Backed Avaada plans INR 4,000–5,000 crore IPO for its solar module arm, expanding India’s green energy manufacturing ambitions.
- Indraprastha Gas (IGL IN) hikes CNG prices for the second time in a month, targeting 33% higher realisations and stronger margins by FY26.
Furniture/Furnishings Weekly: Housing Doldrums; Consumer Trepidation
- Markets rebound on optimism regarding tariff negotiations as furniture and furnishings stocks outperform.
- The WTR Commercial/Contract Furniture index was up +3.1%, the Residential Manufacturers & Suppliers index increased +4.1%, and the Home Goods Retailers index improved +5.4% for the week, beating both large caps +2.9% and the R2K +2.8%
Long suffering housing markets aren’t getting better anytime soon as increasing economic uncertainty bites (1).
Biopharma Week in Review – Macro and M&A Boost Biotech; NVO Moves to Slow LLY Obesity Lead
- Biotech fared better than pharma, as macro trends mostly favored growth stocks and LLY weakness pressured the large cap group.
- M&A activity also helped biotech, with NVS acquiring RLGS at a 108% premium and MKKGY buying SWTX after months of speculation.
- Sentiment remained cautious among industry leaders, with another potential sign of regulatory disruption as the FDA missed Stealth’s (private) PDUFA date.
OPEC+ Pushes for Market Share, How India Can Benefit?
- Crude oil prices have dropped sharply, with WTI and Brent falling 3-4% due to OPEC+’s decision to increase oil output to 960,000 bpd, representing a 44% unwinding .
- This decline in oil prices could benefit India’s Oil Marketing Companies, paint, tyre, and aviation sectors, while negatively impacting upstream oil explorers and refineries.
- Despite OPEC+’s move to ramp up production, global demand remains uncertain due to trade tensions, and oil prices are forecasted to stay low, affecting various sectors.
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