In today’s briefing:
- Ohayo Japan | Trade War Whiplash
- Crude Oil Below $ 60: OPEC’s Pivot, China’s Tariffs, and the New Oil Equation
- Japan Morning Connection: Markets Tumble on China/US Standoff and Outlook for Capital Spending
Ohayo Japan | Trade War Whiplash
- The S&P 500 sank 3.5%, the Nasdaq dropped 4.3%; Yen Stronger, Nikkei Futs down
- Fast Retailing forecasts a 10% rise in consolidated net profit to 410 billion yen for the fiscal year ending August 2025, up 25 billion yen from prior estimates
- Effissimo Capital Management raised its Ricoh stake to 21.71%. Note that Effissimo also owns 5.81% of Konica Minolta, aiming to influence management and proposals
Crude Oil Below $ 60: OPEC’s Pivot, China’s Tariffs, and the New Oil Equation
- Crude oil prices dropped below $60 as OPEC+ boosted output and China retaliated with tariffs, sparking global trade and demand concerns.
- For India, every $10/bbl fall can cut CAD by 0.5% of GDP, ease inflation by 0.3%, but risks lower fiscal revenue due to fuel tax dependence.
- While beneficial short-term, India must prepare for volatility—by diversifying energy, insulating fiscal math, and enhancing trade resilience amidst rising geopolitical uncertainty.
Japan Morning Connection: Markets Tumble on China/US Standoff and Outlook for Capital Spending
- Yields continue to rise as investors flee US assets and Trump’s bill adds to fiscal imbalance.
- Weakness for yesterdays big tech/AI outperformers to be reflected in Japan, although new lows unlikely.
- Suzuki should see lower levels into its secondary pricing next week amid tepid longer-term investor backdrop.
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