In today’s briefing:
- Hana Micron Split Cancellation: Trades Targeting Position Unwinding and Korea Discount Compression
- Taiwan Tech Weekly: Mediatek Reportedly Bests Broadcom for Meta Custom Chip Win; Semi Key Indicators
- Renesas 2Q25: Revenue Inflexion Is Visible but Management Cautious
- Vanguard (5347.TT): FX Impact; Mild Recovery, Slightly Better Than 3Q25 Preview.
- Yageo’s AI-Driven Momentum and Strategic Expansion Through Shibaura Acquisition
- Market Extended Entering Seasonally Weak August; Meaningful Pullback Imminent? Not Likely
- MSFT Q4 Earnings: Exceedingly Calm Trading Drags Implied Vol Lower
- AAPL Q3 Earnings: Misses Are Rare, But Performance a Red Flag
- WhiteFiber, Inc. (WYFI): AI Infrastructure Company Sets Terms for IPO, Data Centers in Focus
- LG CNS IPO Lockup Expiry – US$1.1bn Release, with PE Well in the Money
Hana Micron Split Cancellation: Trades Targeting Position Unwinding and Korea Discount Compression
- The split’s cancellation caught event-driven traders off guard, squeezing shorts and sparking short-covering flows, likely boosting the stock near term and removing governance overhang for a potential rerate.
- Passive flow shifts as spinco’s planned KOSDAQ 150 inclusion is canceled, reversing early index rebalancing and pre-positioning by passive investors.
- Hana Micron stays in the index, so no major passive outflows—just some trimming. Trade the short-cover pop, watch for passive cleanup dips as potential re-entry points.
Taiwan Tech Weekly: Mediatek Reportedly Bests Broadcom for Meta Custom Chip Win; Semi Key Indicators
- MediaTek Reportedly Wins Meta’s 2nm AI Chip Order Over Broadcom
- Memory Monitor: SK Hynix Vs. Micron — Different Speeds & Focus, Same Structural Shift
- Semi Key Indicators Q2 2025: PC, Smartphone Unit Shipments, Global Semi & WFE Sales All Looking Good
Renesas 2Q25: Revenue Inflexion Is Visible but Management Cautious
- 2Q is inline, revenue and margins look like a beat but that’s weaker JPY and higher utilization as the firm is increasing inventory, expecting a better 2H25.
- 3Q guide is flat QoQ, the YoY recovery continues (2Q -9%, 3Q -4%). For 4Q, management expects a “modest” flattish or slight increase QoQ, which implies at least +13% YoY
- The stock is cheap, but “overall demand for automotive, we still have no clue as to how that will unfold” and short-term, Auto growth depends on China
Vanguard (5347.TT): FX Impact; Mild Recovery, Slightly Better Than 3Q25 Preview.
- 3Q25 Outlook (based on USD/TWD = 28.7): Wafer Shipments: +7–9% QoQ; ASP: +1–3% QoQ; Gross Margin: 25–27%.
- Revenue Mix (Industrial, Auto, 3C): Industrial + Automotive: 40%+ (majority industrial; automotive in teens) ; Communication & Computing: 20%+ each ; Consumer: 10%+.
- 2025 Dividend Policy : Will maintains NT$4.5 per share dividend.
Yageo’s AI-Driven Momentum and Strategic Expansion Through Shibaura Acquisition
- 2Q25 Results Summary: Reports Broad-Based Growth with Specialty Margin Strength
- Yageo Inventory Recovery Marks a Demand-Led Inflection for Hardware Components
- Update on Shibaura Acquisition: Still on Track, Strategic Synergy in Focus
Market Extended Entering Seasonally Weak August; Meaningful Pullback Imminent? Not Likely
- We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
- We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and SPX is above 6028-6059 (up from 5700-5785 as it is highly unlikely to be tested).
- Some will point to August seasonality as a reason to be cautious; we simply are not seeing any signs that suggest a meaningful pullback is imminent.
MSFT Q4 Earnings: Exceedingly Calm Trading Drags Implied Vol Lower
- MSFT is set to report Q4 earnings after the market close on Wednesday, July 30.
- We examine the implied volatility and projected earnings-day move following a near 30% rally since the last report.
- Volatility metrics and historical earnings reactions are analyzed to help frame expectations.
AAPL Q3 Earnings: Misses Are Rare, But Performance a Red Flag
- AAPL has been an underperformer since its last earnings report which stands out against the backdrop of a stock that rarely misses earnings expectations.
- We take a closer look at implied volatility and the earnings-day move priced by the options market.
- Volatility metrics and historical earnings reactions are analyzed to help frame expectations.
WhiteFiber, Inc. (WYFI): AI Infrastructure Company Sets Terms for IPO, Data Centers in Focus
- WhiteFiber is offering 7.8 million shares at $15-$17 equating to a potential market cap of $523m-$593m.
- They are currently a wholly-owned subsidiary of Bit Digital. They intend to sell approximately 22.4% of their issued and outstanding Ordinary Shares to the public as part of this offering.
- They expect preliminary unaudited revenue from cloud services for the three months ended June 30, 2025 will be $16.1 million to $17.8 million, an increase of 28.7% to 42.3%, respectively.
LG CNS IPO Lockup Expiry – US$1.1bn Release, with PE Well in the Money
- LG CNS (064400 KS) raised around US$825m in its Korea IPO in February 2025. LG CNS is a South Korean information technology company.
- The shares didn’t do much at listing and have only recently moved higher to trade above its IPO price.
- In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.
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