In today’s briefing:
- [Japan M&A] Son of Chairman/55%Owner Taking Imagica (6879) Private at 10x FCF, 4+x EBITDA. CHEAP.
- Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Local Short Interest Approaching Highs; ASE Close to Parity
- Mediatek Approaching Potential Share Catalyst at Computex Taiwan; Nvidia PC PC Announcement Expected
- Taiwan Tech Weekly: Intel Foundry Gains Big Tech Interest; AMD CEO Champions Taiwan in D.C
- Asian Equities: Southbound Trades Re-Affirm Our China Preferences
- EToro (ETOR US): Delayed Inclusion to Global Index; Ineligible for US Indices
- CELSYS (3663 JP): Q1 FY12/25 Flash update
[Japan M&A] Son of Chairman/55%Owner Taking Imagica (6879) Private at 10x FCF, 4+x EBITDA. CHEAP.
- This deal should not come as a surprise. Bloomberg has an article out saying tycoons are taking companies private to avoid shareholder activism. It’s not just that.
- The stated reasons (competitive environment requiring faster decision-making and significant restructuring) are all kinda hot garbage. This is being done at adjusted EV/EBITDA of 4x and 10x FCF.
- And there are no synergies counted, and half of the Adjusted EV is net receivables+inventory equal to about 2mos of revenues. This is being done too cheaply. But…. TIJ baby…
Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Local Short Interest Approaching Highs; ASE Close to Parity
- TSMC: +12.7% Premium; Consider Going Long the ADR Spread; Short Interest in Local Shares Approaching Highs
- ASE: +2.0% Premium; Continue to Wait for Near-Parity Before Going Long
- CHT: -0.8% Discount; Wait for More Extreme Level; Short Interest Continues to Spike in ADR
Mediatek Approaching Potential Share Catalyst at Computex Taiwan; Nvidia PC PC Announcement Expected
- MediaTek and Nvidia expected to unveil joint ARM-based AI PC SoCs at Computex May 19 – 23; a major milestone for Mediatek expanding into the massive Windows PC market.
- We will be looking to see how the new chips are positioned; To highlight full local LLM inference; enabling private, real-time AI at the edge for PCs?
- We maintain our Structural Long view for Mediatek shares; MediaTek is evolving from mobile SoC leader to full-stack AI compute player across smartphones, PCs, and data centers.
Taiwan Tech Weekly: Intel Foundry Gains Big Tech Interest; AMD CEO Champions Taiwan in D.C
- Intel Down But Not Out — Reportedly Wins Major Microsoft Foundry Contract; Significant Interest from Nvidia and Google
- AMD CEO Lisa Su Presents to U.S. Senate — Taiwan is America’s Key Ally in the AI Chip Race
- Mediatek Approaching Potential Share Catalyst at Computex Taiwan; Nvidia PC PC Announcement Expected
Asian Equities: Southbound Trades Re-Affirm Our China Preferences
- Onshore Chinese investors’ purchases of HK equity through the Southbound Connect accelerated rapidly after China’s September stimulus. Despite net selling in early May, the onshore bullishness seems sustainable for now.
- Onshore investors prefer internet platforms (Tencent, Alibaba), technology and consumer discretionaries (Xiaomi, SMIC, China Mobile), and lately EVs (Li Auto, XPeng). High dividend SOE banks were bought earlier, not recently.
- Our “China Twelve” stocks and focus themes closely align with onshore investors’ preferences. 6 out of 12 figure in the “top bought” Southbound list – reaffirming our bullishness on them.
EToro (ETOR US): Delayed Inclusion to Global Index; Ineligible for US Indices
- Etoro Group (ETOR US) is ineligible for US indices due to its US foreign listing and undisclosed geographical breakdown of assets and revenues.
- Etoro Group (ETOR US) is forecasted to be added to Global-F in March 2026 following the 6-month lock-up expiry which increases public voting rights and float cap above the thresholds.
- Etoro Group (ETOR US) is forecasted to be added to Global-M in August 2025 as there is no voting rights requirement and a lower float cap threshold.
CELSYS (3663 JP): Q1 FY12/25 Flash update
- Celsys Q1 FY12/25 sales were JPY2.4bn (+19.4% YoY), with operating profit at JPY759mn (+34.2% YoY).
- Creator Support segment sales reached JPY2.1bn (+23.0% YoY), driven by CLIP STUDIO PAINT’s global expansion.
- Creator Platform segment sales were JPY345mn (+1.5% YoY), with ongoing development of a new platform service for FY12/26.
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