In today’s briefing:
- FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Just One Change Likely
- Intel Vision: Lip Bu Tan’s First Keynote As Intel CEO
- Vodafone Idea: Another Lifeline, But Structural Challenges Persist
- Cloud Control: EQT Logs In to Fortnox
- Weekly Update (ANGI, IAC, HOLN)
- Notes from Conversation with ANGI IR
- Sigenergy Technology Pre-IPO – Achieved Market Leadership Within Two Years in a Nascent Industry
- UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): Merges with GFS? It Should Be a Terrific, but It Won’t Be Easy to Happen.
- TSMC 2nm Capacity, Wafer Price. UMC Singapore Fab Starting. Both Stocks Trading Just Below Avg PEx
- Duplicate of Hybridan Small Cap Feast: 24/03/2025
FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Just One Change Likely
- With the averaging period for the April rebalance now complete, we forecast just 1 change for the FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index at the upcoming rebalance.
- Based on the passive assets tracking the index, there will be between 0.8-2.2x ADV to trade in the forecast changes.
- The resumption of short selling makes it easier to position for these events. That could also result in the shorts moving a lot ahead of implementation.
Intel Vision: Lip Bu Tan’s First Keynote As Intel CEO
- Rather than love, than money, than fame, give me the truth
- I intend to under promise and over deliver. I will not be satisfied until we delight you
- How long will I stay at Intel? I’m here for as long as it takes
Vodafone Idea: Another Lifeline, But Structural Challenges Persist
- GoI converts ₹36,950 crore of spectrum dues into equity, increasing its stake to ~49%. Promoters’ stake diluted to ~25.5%, with public shareholders now owning just ~23.8%.
- While the move eases cash outflows till H1FY28, Vodafone Idea’s AGR dues, weak subscriber base, and funding needs remain material headwinds.
- Structural concerns remain unresolved, and further dilution risks persist along with loosing market share.
Cloud Control: EQT Logs In to Fortnox
- EQT and First Kraft’s SEK 90 per share bid values Fortnox at SEK 54.9 billion, offering a 38% premium and reflecting confidence in Fortnox’s high-growth, high-margin SaaS model.
- Fortnox’s Board, supported by a fairness opinion, unanimously recommends the offer. Olof Hallrup’s 18.9% stake is committed, making competing bids highly unlikely.
- The current gross spread is 4.36%, offering an estimated annualized return of 20.1% to arbitrage investors, assuming a purchase at SEK 86.24 and settlement by late June.
Weekly Update (ANGI, IAC, HOLN)
This week, two charts caught my eye. First, investor sentiment continues to be very bad.
Second, non-US stocks are actually performing well.
- Quietly, one of my recommendations, Airtel Africa (AAF) is at an all-time high. Airtel Africa is a good example of what you can find in international markets.
Notes from Conversation with ANGI IR
- On March 31st 2025 I spoke to Mark Schneider of investor relations from IAC.
- Mark currently covers investor relations for Angi, Inc as well. but Angi will be hiring its new head of investor relations soon.
- Our conversation was productive and increased my confidence in the outlook for Angi.
Sigenergy Technology Pre-IPO – Achieved Market Leadership Within Two Years in a Nascent Industry
- Sigenergy Technology (Sigenergy) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
- Sigenergy is a market leader in the stackable all-in-one DESS solutions market. Since inception, its sales grew exponentially as it expands its distribution network, causing net loss to narrow significantly.
- There are various areas of risks regarding its high customer and supplier concentration, high raw material sensitivity, high related party transactions, and having a short operating history.
UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): Merges with GFS? It Should Be a Terrific, but It Won’t Be Easy to Happen.
- Both United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US) and GLOBALFOUNDRIES (GFS US) saw positive reactions in their stocks following a possible merger news, despite the current instability in the stock markets.
- Although GLOBALFOUNDRIES (GFS US)‘s technology is held above 7nm, it is ahead of United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US), which is still certain generations above China’s current technology in general.
- If these two companies wish to merge, there are still some subjective factors that need to be considered, and it will not be easy to get approval.
TSMC 2nm Capacity, Wafer Price. UMC Singapore Fab Starting. Both Stocks Trading Just Below Avg PEx
- Media report 2nm “Customers Lined Up To Pay An Estimated $30,000 Per Unit”. Capacity is full but small. Wafer price at 28k. US$30bn revenue in 4Q25 is very likely.
- UMC Singapore Fab expansion is nearing completion and will increase capacity in Singapore to 22% of total. UMC needs GlobalFoundries to diversify?
- TSMC is trading just slightly below average PE at 15.0x forward EPS. Similarly for UMC trading at 12.3x forward EPS. As such, we’re far from valuations support levels.
Duplicate of Hybridan Small Cap Feast: 24/03/2025
- The developer, manufacturer, and distributor of high quality and effective rapid tests reports interim results to December 2024.
- Financial highlights include a £5.2m placing, a 28% increase in Revenue to £3.1m, but with an Operating loss of £2.6m up from a loss of £1.2m in H123 as a result of investments in growth initiatives.
- The adjusted EBITDA loss was £1.9m and an improved EBITDA performance is expected in H2 due to forecast revenue growth as key strategic milestones are passed, such as the acquisition of CS Lifesciences, the opening of Abingdon Analytical in Doncaster, and the commencement of work in April from the new US site.
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