In today’s briefing:
- Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Yageo Goes All in with a JPY6,635 Offer
- Fractal Analytics Pre-IPO Tearsheet
- TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 2nm Production Schedule in US Could Be One Year Ahead of Previous Schedule.
- iFAST Corporation Limited: Breaking Out
- KS / Kuaishou (1024 HK): 2Q25, Op Profit Up by 35% YoY, 91% Upside
- A Defining Bet: Intel’s New Capital and the Case for Buying a Stake in Taiwan’s UMC
- 2025 High Conviction – Freee: 4Q Setback Is Only Temporary
- Masa’s AI Double Down: Masterstroke or Misstep?
- CRM US – Salesforce Bets On Agentic Automation: What The Regrello Acquisition Could Unlock!
- Nazara Technologies in Turbulence: Temporary Setback or Lasting Damage?
Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Yageo Goes All in with a JPY6,635 Offer
- In response to Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) matching its Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) offer on 14 August, Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) increased its offer by 7.0% from JPY6,200 to JPY6,635.
- To remain in the game, Yageo had to bump. The latest bump underscores Yageo’s confidence in securing regulatory approvals.
- The Minebea CEO suggested that its JPY6,200 offer would be the final one. If Yageo secures regulatory approval (likely), Minebea will walk rather than match Yageo’s latest offer.
Fractal Analytics Pre-IPO Tearsheet
- Fractal Analytics Ltd (2453623D IN) is looking to raise about US$560m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by Axis, GS, MS and Kotak.
- Fractal Analytics Limited is an enterprise artificial intelligence (AI) company which supports large global enterprises with data-driven insights and assists them in their decision making through its end-to-end AI solutions.
- According to the Everest Report, FAL was India’s leading pure-play enterprise data, analytics and AI company, recognized globally, with capabilities across the data, analytics and AI (DAAI) value chain.
TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 2nm Production Schedule in US Could Be One Year Ahead of Previous Schedule.
- TSMC Chairman C.C. Wei previously emphasized that customer demand for 2nm technology surpasses that for 3nm, and the company is actively working to expand production capacity.
- For 2nm technology, we expect production to take place at the Tainan fab, ahead of the U.S. Arizona fab and earlier than the previously anticipated 2028 timeline.
- Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US)’s next generation 2nm development is actively progressing.
iFAST Corporation Limited: Breaking Out
- IFAST SP has risen 28% since our initiation and has seen net institutional outflows of S$50m in the first week of the month.
- We see further upside of 12%, as the value in terms of P/AUM is not reflected in the price.
- Recent private transactions such as the Chocolate Finance Series A+ deal round indicate that iFAST is cheap relative to its assets. There is a strong chance of a buy back in 2026.
KS / Kuaishou (1024 HK): 2Q25, Op Profit Up by 35% YoY, 91% Upside
- The growth rate of GMV (Gross Merchandise Value) rose to 18% YoY in 2Q25 from 15% YoY in 1Q25.
- The operating margin improved to 13% in 2Q25 from 11% in 2Q24 so that operating profit increased by 35% YoY in 2Q25.
- We conclude an stock upside of 91% for the next twelve months. Buy.
A Defining Bet: Intel’s New Capital and the Case for Buying a Stake in Taiwan’s UMC
- A major Intel balance sheet boost, backed by SoftBank, the U.S. government, and leading institutions, would enhance the company’s capacity to make bold bets on regaining global chip manufacturing leadership.
- UMC’s market valuation is less than the capex for just one advanced fab. Intel would likely make a gain on its investment since it would cause UMC shares to rally.
- For less than the cost of a single advanced fab, a large company could acquire UMC and gain chipmaking expertise approaching TSMC’s level; boosting returns across an entire fab network.
2025 High Conviction – Freee: 4Q Setback Is Only Temporary
- Freee KK (4478 JP) reported 4Q and full-year FY06/2025 results last week which disappointed the market leading to a sell-off.
- After reporting 3-consecutive quarters of Adj. OP, profitability dipped in 4Q due to higher advertising and D&A costs. However, freee expects to return to profits in the current fiscal year.
- Following 4Q results, premium over Money Forward has disappeared and Freee is currently trading at a huge discount to MF which seems unwarranted
Masa’s AI Double Down: Masterstroke or Misstep?
- SoftBank widens its AI bet with a $2B stake in Intel, suffers a 12% dip over two consecutive days.
- Nvidia’s dominance has hyperscalers wary of lock-in. With Amazon and Microsoft building their chips, SoftBank’s move lands right as the market searches for alternatives.
- Can Son replicate Intel’s historic design-fab alignment in AI, or would execution risk outweigh his ecosystem-diversification logic?
CRM US – Salesforce Bets On Agentic Automation: What The Regrello Acquisition Could Unlock!
- Salesforce is charging deeper into the AI frontier.
- On August 18, 2025, the CRM titan announced a definitive agreement to acquire Regrello, an AI-native startup that specializes in transforming fragmented business processes into orchestrated, automated workflows.
- The deal, expected to close in Salesforce’s fiscal Q3 2026, underscores the company’s commitment to building out its “agentic enterprise” vision—where human workers and AI agents collaborate in real time.
Nazara Technologies in Turbulence: Temporary Setback or Lasting Damage?
- The Lok Sabha passed the Online Gaming Bill, 2025, banning all RMG platforms and putting Nazara’s PokerBaazi investment at significant risk.
- While Nazara has no direct RMG exposure, its INR 805 crore PokerBaazi bet could turn worthless, raising concerns over capital allocation and valuation pressure.
- Core businesses remain strong, but regulatory uncertainty warrants caution. Near-term downside risks persist; long-term clarity hinges on execution and policy direction.
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