In today’s briefing:
- Lee Jae-Myung’s Campaign Pledge – Cancellation of Treasury Shares
- Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK): Top Trades and Strategic Insights from HKEX Options Trading
- Fujifilm: Bio CDMO – A Success in the Making
- Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK): Volatility Insights and Analysis Identify Spread Opportunities
- Wistron GDR Early Look – Riding the AI Server Boom Amid Macroeconomic Headwinds
- UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 2Q25 Guidance Beat; Tariff Affection Unknown; No GF Merger Plan Right Now.
- VEON (VEON US): Frontier Markets Digital Leader, Ukraine Spin-Out to Unlock Value
- Circle Internet Group (CRCL): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of Stablecoin Powerhouse Company
Lee Jae-Myung’s Campaign Pledge – Cancellation of Treasury Shares
- Lee Jae-Myung (who is leading in most election polls) has mentioned cancellation of treasury shares as one of the key campaign pledges to improve the corporate governance in Korea.
- If the cancellation of these shares becomes mandatory, the SK Group and Lotte Group will be most affected.
- We provide a list of 21 stocks in KOSPI200 that have the highest ratios for treasury shares/total outstanding shares. These stocks could receive more attention in the next several months.
Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK): Top Trades and Strategic Insights from HKEX Options Trading
- Over the past five trading days, Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.
- Bearish and Bullish strategies balance each other, with only 12% of trades expressing a neutral view, such as Iron Condors. Some strategies were traded in unusually large size.
- Diagonal Spreads account for over 25% of all strategies and can make for near self-financing strategies. An inverted volatility term structure, aka backwardation, supports calendar and diagonal spreads.
Fujifilm: Bio CDMO – A Success in the Making
- Fujifilm announced today that the company has entered into a 10-year manufacturing supply agreement valued over US$3bn with Regeneron Pharma to provide US-based production to Regeneron’s biologic medicines.
- Fujifilm’s Bio CDMO business, operating through FUJIFILM Diosynth Biotechnologies, has achieved significant success and growth, driven by a combination of strategic investments/acquisitions, with a focus on expanding its capabilities.
- Bio CDMO business has achieved rapid expansion over the years, and aims to generate revenues of ¥200bn for FY03/2025 and reach ¥500bn by FY03/2028E which seems attainable to us.
Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK): Volatility Insights and Analysis Identify Spread Opportunities
- Xiaomi’s (1810 HK) one-month implied volatility has decreased from recent peaks but remains above the 90th percentile, while realized volatility is exceptionally high, exceeding 100% (100th percentile).
- The options market exhibits an inverted term structure (backwardation) favoring calendar or diagonal spreads, with a slightly negatively sloped skew supporting put and call spreads.
- Open interest extends to March 2026, with balanced call and put interest across most expiries, except for March 2026, which is heavily call-dominated.
Wistron GDR Early Look – Riding the AI Server Boom Amid Macroeconomic Headwinds
- Wistron Corp (3231 TT) is looking to raise up to US$760m in its upcoming global depository receipts (GDRs) offering.
- On 2nd Apr 2025, Wistron announced that it had received its board’s approval to sell up to 250m common shares via a GDR offering.
- Similar to previous GDR listings, the deal is a long drawn out process with the firm required to jump through a number of board/shareholder/regulatory approval loops.
UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 2Q25 Guidance Beat; Tariff Affection Unknown; No GF Merger Plan Right Now.
- 2Q25 guidance: Wafer shipments: increase 5~7%, ASP in USD: flat, GM: About 30%.
- The US tariffs affect customer outcome visibility in 2Q25 and 2H25 is limited.
- UMC is seeking a strategic plan to enhance shareholder value, and there is no ongoing merger plan at the moment, which implies no merger plan with GF.
VEON (VEON US): Frontier Markets Digital Leader, Ukraine Spin-Out to Unlock Value
- Telecom leader in key frontier markets. VEON serves nearly 160 million subscribers across frontier markets including Ukraine, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Bangladesh.
- Multiple potential unicorn tech businesses within the Group. VEON has multiple rapidly growing tech businesses with unicorn (US$1bn valuation) potential.
- Ukraine spin-out to unlock value. VEON is planning a Nasdaq IPO spin-out of its Ukraine business Kyivstar via de-SPAC for 2H25E. We rate VEON as a Structural Long, US$59 Target.
Circle Internet Group (CRCL): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of Stablecoin Powerhouse Company
- Circle Internet Group believes the global financial system can be rebuilt on the principles of the internet.
- Circle has minted more than $504.3 billion of USDC and redeemed more than $464.4 billion of USDC from January 1, 2021 to December 31, 2024.
- Their 2024 revenue, net income, and Adjusted EBITDA is $1.7 billion, $156 million, and $285 million, respectively.
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