In today’s briefing:
- Korea Small Cap Gem #43: Total Soft Bank
- AMAT Q325. Tanking On Tepid Leading Edge Outlook & China Woes
- Xiaomi (1810.HK) Q2 Earnings: Setup Features Low Volatility and Recent Underperformance
- Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Aug 11 – 15): Market Breadth Expands, Options Activity Grows
- TSMC’s Outlook After Trump’s 300% Semiconductor Tariff Bombshell
- PC Monitor: ASUS’s Gaming & Commercial Strength Signal AI PC Cycle; Positive Read for Dell, HP
- Elecom Co Ltd (6750 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update
- Europe Next to Break Out?; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Korea, Greece, and the U.S.
- Base Co Ltd (4481 JP): 1H FY12/25 flash update
- Ferrotec Corp (6890 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update
Korea Small Cap Gem #43: Total Soft Bank
- Total Soft Bank (045340 KS) is a Korean software company focused on digital solutions (enterprise industrial software, SaaS) for the maritime shipping and port logistics value chain.
- The company had best ever results in 2Q25. It had sales of 9.7 billion won (up 140.6% YoY) and operating profit of 5.1 billion won (up 947% YoY) in 2Q25.
- Using a P/E ratio of 15x on the estimated net profit of 15.5 billion won (2027E), it would suggest market cap of 233 billion won (207% higher than current levels).
AMAT Q325. Tanking On Tepid Leading Edge Outlook & China Woes
- AMAT reported FY Q325 revenues of $7.3 billion, up 3% QoQ, up 8% YoY and ~$100 million above the midpoint of the guided range
- Looking ahead, AMAT forecasted current quarter revenues of $6.7 billion at the midpoint, down 8.3% QoQ and down 4.9% YoY
- The China slump was not unexpected, but the leading edge logic drop was definitely a surprise
Xiaomi (1810.HK) Q2 Earnings: Setup Features Low Volatility and Recent Underperformance
- The setup for this earnings release is interesting as Xiaomi has underperformed HSI since the end of June.
- Xiaomi’s Q2 earnings setup features low vols a strong beat record and interesting Q2 dynamics.
- Implied vol sits near historic lows despite the approaching earnings.
Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Aug 11 – 15): Market Breadth Expands, Options Activity Grows
- Broad-Based strength across sectors pushed HSI higher despite late-week weakness.
- Option trading accelerated into week’s end, with Calls showing a modest uptick.
- The HKD pulled back from the top end of its trading range after prior interventions.
TSMC’s Outlook After Trump’s 300% Semiconductor Tariff Bombshell
- Our model recently signaled that Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT) is overbought. Strangely, it is overbought on the TIME model but not on the PRICE model, a bearish divergence.
- On Friday Trump announced that next week he will slap 300% import tariffs on semiconductors imports. TSMC has factories in the United States so in theory it’s exempt.
- South Korea, Malaysia and Philippines’ semiconductor industries are going to be affected the most, leaving TSMC in a very good position BUT TSMC IS OVERBOUGHT and will pulback soon.
PC Monitor: ASUS’s Gaming & Commercial Strength Signal AI PC Cycle; Positive Read for Dell, HP
- ASUS experienced record 2Q25 revenue driven by 30–40% YoY growth in gaming and commercial PCs, supported by a new GPU sales strength and enterprise market expansion.
- AI servers held mid-teens revenue share for ASUS; margin pressure from tariffs and FX expected to ease after 3Q.
- Strong gaming and commercial PC momentum could signal PC upgrade activity in response to AI PCs, offering positive read-through for Dell and HPQ’s upcoming results end-August.
Elecom Co Ltd (6750 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update
- Sales reached JPY28.6bn, a 3.7% YoY increase, with power supplies and I/O devices showing growth.
- Operating profit increased by 18.8% YoY to JPY3.0bn, driven by higher gross profit despite rising SG&A expenses.
- B2C sales were JPY19.4bn (+3.2% YoY), while B2B sales amounted to JPY9.2bn (+5.0% YoY).
Europe Next to Break Out?; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Korea, Greece, and the U.S.
- We remain near-term bullish SPX and ACWI since 4/22/25, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
- We discussed in our July 31, 2025 Int’l Compass how $128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50 were short-term supports to watch on ACWI-US, and ACWI-US found support at $128 the next day.
- Europe (EURO STOXX 50) is the last of the major countries (from a global market cap perspective) to break out; we expect it to be next
Base Co Ltd (4481 JP): 1H FY12/25 flash update
- Revenue reached JPY11.0bn, a 14.0% YoY increase, achieving 47.8% of the full-year forecast, with solid orders.
- Operating profit rose to JPY2.9bn, a 21.6% YoY increase, with an operating profit margin up 1.7pp to 26.5%.
- Net income attributable to owners was JPY2.0bn, a 23.3% YoY increase, achieving 47.3% of the full-year forecast.
Ferrotec Corp (6890 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update
- Q1 FY03/26 sales increased by 12.7% YoY to JPY68.9bn, while operating profit decreased by 4.9% YoY to JPY6.7bn.
- Semiconductor Equipment-related segment sales rose 3.6% YoY, but segment profit declined 31.5% YoY due to lower quartz crucible sales.
- Automotive-related segment sales grew 53.5% YoY to JPY9.0bn, with segment operating profit increasing 79.2% YoY to JPY1.3bn.
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