In today’s briefing:
- Xero (XRO AU): Index Flows Following the Capital Raise
- Xero US1.2bn Placement – Trying to Jump Start US, Again. Might Not Be a Game Changer.
- Block Deal Sale of 82 Billion Won of SK Eternix by Hahn & Co
- Key Trading Angles from Nextrade’s First Quarterly Reshuffle: Full List with Tickers (Excel)
- IBIDEN Co., Ltd.: AI Substrate Leader with Strong Growth, Expanding Moat, and Valuation Upside
- TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Will Rapidus Threaten TSMC’s 2nm Market? We Think It’s Too Early to Say (II)
- PVRINOX IN: Tactical Bet – Strong Content Pipeline Can Translate to near Term Outperformance
- Taiwan Tech Weekly: 1.4nm Slips from Samsung’s Grip? Why Intel May Be TSMCs Sole Next Gen Competitor
- Bumble Inc. Is Improving Its AI Matchmaking Capabilities—Can It Help Consumers Get Past The Swiping Fatigue?
- US Tightening the Screws on Sales of Semi Production Equipment to Foreign-Owned Fabs in China
Xero (XRO AU): Index Flows Following the Capital Raise
- Xero Ltd (XRO AU) has entered into a binding agreement to acquire Melio Limited for an upfront cash consideration of US$2.5bn in cash and Xero Ltd (XRO AU) stock.
- The cash consideration is being funded mainly through a fully underwritten A$1.85bn (US$1.2bn) institutional placement. There is also a non-underwritten Share Purchase Plan to raise around A$200m.
- Given the large size of the institutional placement, there will be an increase in index shares and the passive buying that follows should mop up over 20% of the placement.
Xero US1.2bn Placement – Trying to Jump Start US, Again. Might Not Be a Game Changer.
- Xero Ltd (XRO AU) plans to raise around US$1.2bn via an institutional placement to partly fund the US$2.5bn acquisition for Melio.
- The US market has been a growth dampener for Xero for a while. The acquisition is large but might not be a game changer.
- In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.
Block Deal Sale of 82 Billion Won of SK Eternix by Hahn & Co
- On 25 June, Hahn & Co completed a block deal sale of about 9% stake in SK Eternix at 25,634 won (approximately 11% discount to the previous day’s closing price).
- Despite the expected sharp growth in the company’s sales and profits next year, its valuations have reached very high levels.
- Combined with the recent block deal sales at significant market discount, we believe this is likely to put a break on its share price in the next 3-6 months.
Key Trading Angles from Nextrade’s First Quarterly Reshuffle: Full List with Tickers (Excel)
- NextTrade’s Q3 reshuffle: 105 adds, 112 cuts, net -7. Total tradable names drop to 791. Turnover was more aggressive than expected.
- Key NXT additions could see liquidity surge and short-term vol spike, especially with NXT still grabbing ~30% of turnover and no hard cap enforcement yet in place.
- LG CNS, GS P&L, and SAMG Ent. are catching strong local trader interest, with setups building fast around these newly added NXT plays.
IBIDEN Co., Ltd.: AI Substrate Leader with Strong Growth, Expanding Moat, and Valuation Upside
- Over FY21–25, IBIDEN has delivered strong revenue and profit growth, with operating income rising ~44% and EPS growing ~34% despite cyclical pressures.
- The company commands a dominant ~70–85% market share in AI/server IC substrates, led by Nvidia demand, and is expanding capacity at Ono and Gama plants to sustain leadership.
- With a 17–21% EPS CAGR forecast and trading at ~26× P/E—well below high-growth peers—IBIDEN offers a compelling blend of quality growth and relative valuation comfort.
TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Will Rapidus Threaten TSMC’s 2nm Market? We Think It’s Too Early to Say (II)
- Japan’s Fujitsu Ltd (6702 JP) is currently developing a 2nm CPU named “MONAKA” (link). The CPU is planned to be manufactured by Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US).
- Rapidus has to deal with high technical barriers, tight timelines, heavy R&D costs, market and profitability challenges.
- Talent shortage in Japan: A lingering pain for the Semiconductor industry
PVRINOX IN: Tactical Bet – Strong Content Pipeline Can Translate to near Term Outperformance
- FY25 was Indian boxoffice’s worst performance ever (ex-covid). FY26 has started strong with multiple hits and June-Dec lineup boasts multiple action-oriented and sequel movies; genres that are witnessing high occupancy.
- Company has strengthened its balance sheet post ‘INOX’ acquisition despite the revenue slump. fixed cost/screen is flat vs FY20 at 2cr while average ticket prices have grown at 5% CAGR
- Comfortable entry level valuation (10.5x TTM EBITDA vs global peers CNK/AMC at 12/35x) supported by improved operational execution position the stock as a near term re-rating candidate.
Taiwan Tech Weekly: 1.4nm Slips from Samsung’s Grip? Why Intel May Be TSMCs Sole Next Gen Competitor
- Samsung’s 1.4nm Technology Delay Highlights Potential That Intel Could End Up the Only Viable Alternative to TSMC — Maintain Structural Long for TSMC
- Micron Results Today Will Provide Insight Into Resilience of AI/HPC Equipment Demand
- TechChain Insights: Himax Threatened by China Auto Chip Push? CPO Tech with TSMC Remains Bright Spot
Bumble Inc. Is Improving Its AI Matchmaking Capabilities—Can It Help Consumers Get Past The Swiping Fatigue?
- Bumble Inc.’s recent financial performance and strategic direction provide an intricate picture of potential future opportunities and challenges.
- The earnings call highlighted several key themes.
- Bumble is actively working to transition its focus from expansion via performance marketing to enhancing user experience and match quality.
US Tightening the Screws on Sales of Semi Production Equipment to Foreign-Owned Fabs in China
- US tightening the screws on Foreign-owned Semi production in China: Samsung, SK Hynix, TSMC were exempted from import license. The risk of US removing Equipment license is known since 2022.
- What’s the point? Negotiating tool in the ongoing US-China discussions? Increase uncertainty? Or maybe US unhappy about further Korean investments in China?
- Samsung has 35% of DRAM production in China, SK Hynix 40% of DRAM and NAND, TSMC a negligible 3% of total revenues. Samsung has kept upgrading capacity in China.
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