Daily Brief United States: BP , Apple , Microsoft Corp, NVIDIA Corp, Whitefiber, Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Base Oil, International Public Partnerships, Proassurance Corp and more

• BP’s Q2 2025 revenue is expected to drop 10% QoQ and 10.7% YoY. However, its EPS is projected to rise by 30.8% QoQ but fall by 32% YoY.
• Lower oil and gas realizations are expected to drag earnings by up to USD 1.1 billion, but strong refining margins and oil trading performance could offset the blow.
• Options positioning reflects mild bullish sentiment, with traders favouring calls near current levels, suggesting expectations of a modest post-earnings upside.

• AAPL has been an underperformer since its last earnings report which stands out against the backdrop of a stock that rarely misses earnings expectations.
• We take a closer look at implied volatility and the earnings-day move priced by the options market.   
• Volatility metrics and historical earnings reactions are analyzed to help frame expectations.  

• MSFT is set to report Q4 earnings after the market close on Wednesday, July 30.
• We examine the implied volatility and projected earnings-day move following a near 30% rally since the last report.
• Volatility metrics and historical earnings reactions are analyzed to help frame expectations.

• We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
• We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and SPX is above 6028-6059 (up from 5700-5785 as it is highly unlikely to be tested).
• Some will point to August seasonality as a reason to be cautious; we simply are not seeing any signs that suggest a meaningful pullback is imminent.

• WhiteFiber is offering 7.8 million shares at $15-$17 equating to a potential market cap of $523m-$593m.
• They are currently a wholly-owned subsidiary of Bit Digital. They intend to sell approximately 22.4% of their issued and outstanding Ordinary Shares to the public as part of this offering.
• They expect preliminary unaudited revenue from cloud services for the three months ended June 30, 2025 will be $16.1 million to $17.8 million, an increase of  28.7% to 42.3%, respectively.

• WTI crude declined 1.4% for the week ending 25/Jul, pressured by oversupply concerns and renewed U.S. tariff threats, despite midweek gains from inventory draws and trade optimism.
• The U.S. rig count fell by two to 542, marking its twelfth weekly fall in thirteen weeks. Oil rigs by seven to 415, marking its thirteenth consecutive weekly fall.
• WTI OI PCR remained at 0.96 on 25/Jul compared to 18/Jul. Call OI inched up by 3.1% WoW, while put OI rose by 3.8%.

• For the week ending 25/Jul, Henry Hub dropped 12.8% on the back of mild weather forecasts, record output, and stagnant LNG flows.
• For the week ending 18/Jul, the EIA reported that U.S. natural gas inventories rose by 23 Bcf, lower than analyst expectations of a 28 Bcf build.
• Henry Hub OI PCR fell to 0.84 on 25/Jul compared to 18/Jul. Call OI grew by 6.5% WoW, while put OI rose by 3.2%.

• India’s imported Group I heavy neutrals base oils cargo price strengthens relative to FOB Asia and Europe prices in July 2025.
• India’s rising price-differential for Group I SN 500 follows drop in availability of the supplies from Iran especially in recent months.
• India’s imports of Group I heavy neutrals fall to eighteen-month low in June 2025, mostly because of drop in supplies from Middle East.

International Public Partnerships (INPP) has been selected as a preferred bidder on the Sizewell C nuclear power station, a landmark infrastructure project critical to strengthening the UK’s energy security and to meeting the government’s net zero targets. INPP will take a c 3% equity stake in the Sizewell C regulated company and has committed to invest c £250m over the next five years. It expects to fund this through capital recycling, with the share repurchase programme remaining in place. The investment is structured under a regulated model and is expected generate predictable, long-term, inflation-linked cash flows, protected against construction and nuclear-specific risks, and provide capital upside. We expect the ability to recycle capital into attractive, new, long-term investment opportunities, in addition to its immediately accretive share repurchases, to support a continued re-rating of INPP shares.

• The merger involves TDC acquiring ProAssurance for $25/share, creating a combined 16% market share in medical malpractice insurance.
• California regulatory concerns arise due to the combined entity’s 65% market share, potentially impacting merger approval.
• TDC’s offer price was contingent on regulatory outcomes, with PRA rejecting a structure tying price to regulatory conditions.