Daily Brief United States: Intel Corp, Gold, Robinhood Markets , USD, Meta, Crude Oil, Copper, Bwx Technologies, SmartRent, Yorkville Acquisition and more

• The real point of Reuters’ article on Intel CEO “new” Foundry strategy is, imo, to pre-announce the possibility of a very large write off 
• TSMC discontinues GaN doesn’t matter, it’s not even 1% of revenue. 1) Auto demand is slow, GaN is lower margins, lot of competition  2) management has better things to do 
• UMC 6nm rumor, maybe yes but most likely with Intel’s manufacturing after 2030. UMC and Intel first start with 12nm in 2027-28.

• Across markets realized volatility generally came in below implied, making June favorable for volatility sellers.
• July has historically rewarded vol sellers; we reference a prior Insight on volatility during Trump’s first term highlighting a large deviation from average in July.
• Average July returns are mixed, but there are clear standouts among the macro markets.

• The culture of trading has shifted, with people enjoying losing money and constantly looking for prices on various assets
• Robinhood caught the wave of this cultural shift with its user-friendly interface and introduction of free stock trading during the pandemic

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• FX volumes expected to remain steady in the next month and a half before potentially increasing later in Q3
• Dollar risk reversals are priced expensively for puts, suggesting the need for alternative option structures
• Consideration of bullish yen option trades in lower beta crossian underlyings like CNH as alternatives to dollar yen positions due to stretched spec positioning and high carry costs

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• On Monday, June 30, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg announced the creation of Meta Superintelligence Labs, staffing it with a host of leading researchers from the likes of OpenAI and Google 
• With astronomical hiring bonuses and lucrative compensation packages, this newly assembled team will struggle to gel and likely drive an exodus of existing Meta AI employees elsewhere
• Yann LeCun is sidelined in the MSL memo. He believes LLMs are not the way to achieve human-level AI. It appears that Mark Zuckerberg disagrees. Let’s see…

• OPEC maintained steady demand forecasts, while the IEA and EIA cut 2025 growth estimates. All agencies see limited near-term catalysts for a meaningful rise in global oil demand.
• OPEC, EIA, and IEA project rising oil supply, driven by non-OPEC producers and near-term OPEC+ overproduction.
• The EIA remains bullish on Henry Hub gas prices, forecasting strong demand and tightening supply through late 2025.

• Two weeks ago, we flagged our Tanker Equity Basket as a potentially interesting place to look for opportunities.
• The week after we flagged it, the basket bounced, presumably on events in the Middle East, and this week has given back most of those returns.
• The basket has now fallen below the 10-day moving average and is bouncing along the 200-day moving average.

• BWX Technologies, Inc. (BWXT) reported its first quarter 2025 financial results, illustrating both robust performance and future growth opportunities.
• The highlights of the quarter included double-digit revenue, EBITDA, and earnings per share growth compared to the previous year.
• This strong performance was attributed to effective execution and an increased pace of work, along with strategic wins in both commercial and government operations.

• SmartRent’s first quarter earnings call for 2025 highlights several dynamics at play in the company’s pursuit of sustainable growth and value creation.
• The company, well known for its Internet of Things (IoT) technology, aims to transform property operations and enhance resident experiences.
• SmartRent’s approach involves extensive IoT device integration, a software platform compatible with third-party systems, and deployment expertise tailored to retrofit environments.

• Yorkville Acquisition and Lutnick’s SPACs are politically connected, targeting speculative capital tied to Trump’s administration and crypto.
• Mayne Pharma’s merger with Cosette faces legal challenges over a material adverse change, with a court hearing set.
• Lifeway Foods may be sold to Danone; shareholder campaign aims to overhaul the board for negotiations.