In today’s briefing:
- Intel Vision: Lip Bu Tan’s First Keynote As Intel CEO
- SmartStop Self Storage (SMA): IPO for Yield Chasers, Traditional Players on the Sidelines
- Cautious Outlook; Get Defensive and Sell Rallies; Upgrading Energy; Downgrading Technology
- [US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/13] Henry Hub Rebounds on Declining Output and Rising LNG Exports
- [US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/13] WTI Climbed on Tariffs and Inventory Draws
- Weekly Update (ANGI, IAC, HOLN)
- Notes from Conversation with ANGI IR
- Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 31 March
- April Global Macro Volatility: Strong Price and Vol Seasonals
- Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 31 March
Intel Vision: Lip Bu Tan’s First Keynote As Intel CEO
- Rather than love, than money, than fame, give me the truth
- I intend to under promise and over deliver. I will not be satisfied until we delight you
- How long will I stay at Intel? I’m here for as long as it takes
SmartStop Self Storage (SMA): IPO for Yield Chasers, Traditional Players on the Sidelines
- According to our sources, the deal is multiple-times oversubscribed — our sources stated around 5x.
- Self-Storage was Monday’s second best performing sub-sector (+1.8%) as the overall REIT sector (+0.7%) slightly outperformed the broader market.
- While the “typical” IPO investor may not be “enthused”, the timing for this type of deal “may” be ideal for yield-chasers.
Cautious Outlook; Get Defensive and Sell Rallies; Upgrading Energy; Downgrading Technology
- Last week we discussed how evidence was pointing to a major low at 5500-5600 on the SPX, but now it appears more likely to just have been a local low
- Market dynamics have continued to deteriorate to the point where we no longer see this as a buying opportunity.
- We are cautious and would get defensive as long as the S&P 500 is below 5770-5780 and its 200-day MA; we believe we are in a “sell rallies” regime
[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/13] Henry Hub Rebounds on Declining Output and Rising LNG Exports
- For the week ending 28/Mar, U.S. natural gas prices gained 4.6% due to rising LNG exports and a drop in daily natural gas output.
- Henry Hub gained 1.7% on 27/Mar (Thu), driven by lower output, record LNG exports, and stronger demand forecasts, despite a build in U.S. natural gas storage.
- Henry Hub OI PCR decreased to 0.98 on 28/Mar from 1.05 on 21/Mar. Call OI fell by 10.1% WoW, while put OI dropped by 16.1%.
[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/13] WTI Climbed on Tariffs and Inventory Draws
- WTI futures rose 1.6% for the week ending 28/Mar, driven by escalating trade tensions and declining U.S. crude oil inventories.
- The U.S. rig count fell by one to 592. The oil rig count dropped by two to 484, and gas rigs rose by one to 103.
- WTI OI PCR grew to 0.91 on 28/Mar from 0.90 on 21/Mar. Call OI increased by 7.0% WoW, while put OI grew by 7.3%.
Weekly Update (ANGI, IAC, HOLN)
This week, two charts caught my eye. First, investor sentiment continues to be very bad.
Second, non-US stocks are actually performing well.
- Quietly, one of my recommendations, Airtel Africa (AAF) is at an all-time high. Airtel Africa is a good example of what you can find in international markets.
Notes from Conversation with ANGI IR
- On March 31st 2025 I spoke to Mark Schneider of investor relations from IAC.
- Mark currently covers investor relations for Angi, Inc as well. but Angi will be hiring its new head of investor relations soon.
- Our conversation was productive and increased my confidence in the outlook for Angi.
Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 31 March
- Asia’s base oils prices extend dip versus feedstock/gasoil prices.
- Margins hold firm for heavy grades, pointing to still-strong supply-demand fundamentals.
- Firm margins partially cushion impact of weaker light-grade margins.
April Global Macro Volatility: Strong Price and Vol Seasonals
- Monthly deep-dive into price and vol metrics across Global indexes and macro assets.
- In-Depth look at the current state of the markets as well as how volatility and price may unfold.
- We highlight strong seasonal trends in April, with all markets typically rising and realized vol typically coming in below implied.
Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 31 March
- Asia’s base oils demand could hold firm over the coming weeks as buyers replenish low stocks and lube consumption holds steady.
- Rising crude oil prices could provide additional support.
- Seasonal slowdown in demand from end of second quarter typically starts to curb buying interest several weeks before then.
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