In today’s briefing:
- [Quiddity Index] S&P500/600 Sep25 Rebal: Multiple Intra-Review Changes Possible
- S&P/ASX Indices: Proposed Methodology Changes & The BIG September Rebalance
- Fortive Spins Off Ralliant: Big US and Global Index Implications Ahead
- Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 23 June
- Ivanhoe’s Massive Guide Down And Copper Supply Impacts
- Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 23 June
- MTVA: DA-1241 in Combination with Efruxifermin Shows Additive Hepatoprotective Effects in Mouse MASH Model
- VIOT: Viomi hits a few speed bumps in the road. Adjusting our valuation target to 4.00
- [US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/25] WTI Posted Gain Amid Geopolitical Turmoil and Market Swings
- Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 23 June
[Quiddity Index] S&P500/600 Sep25 Rebal: Multiple Intra-Review Changes Possible
- The S&P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
- In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the September 2025 index rebal event.
- We expect two regular changes in September 2025. There are also multiple live M&A events which are likely to trigger intra-review index changes.
S&P/ASX Indices: Proposed Methodology Changes & The BIG September Rebalance
- S&P DJI have proposed methodology changes to the S&P/ASX family of indices to enhance representativeness and more quickly reflecting changing market conditions.
- The main changes are lowering the minimum float threshold, shortening the market cap calculation period and the liquidity calculation period, and including buffers for additions and deletions.
- We currently forecast 47 changes to the S&P/ASX family of indices in September and the short market cap computation period could lead to more change over the next two months.
Fortive Spins Off Ralliant: Big US and Global Index Implications Ahead
- Fortive (FTV US) to spin off its Precision Technologies segment, under the name “Ralliant”.
- Key details on dates, transaction rationale, structure and estimated market capitalisation of the spin-off company.
- Significant index implications ahead, across US and Global indexes, on an intra-quarter basis.
Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 23 June
- Global base oils price differentials fall sharply relative to feedstock/competing fuel prices in June 2025 following surge in crude oil prices.
- Speed and size of fall in base oils margins reflects more the surge in crude oil prices rather than sudden, unexpected change in base oils supply-demand fundamentals.
- Lack of any sudden, unexpected change in supply-demand fundamentals could support reversion of base oils margins closer to their higher levels in early-June 2025 before their slump in recent weeks.
Ivanhoe’s Massive Guide Down And Copper Supply Impacts
- In our note Post Results FY24: Mine-By-Mine Plan Production + Commentary on Copper From Global Listed Companies, we noted a mid-point guidance of 575,000 tons for Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN).
- The company revised this midpoint guidance down substantially to 400,000 tons following the discovery of Seismic activity in the Kakula mines (a 0.7% downward revision of global refined production).
- The Kamoa-Kakula mine is the 4th largest mine in the world, and the mid-point guidance post 2027 was to ramp it beyond 700,000 tons.
Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 23 June
- Asia’s base oils price-premium to competing/feedstock prices extends fall to five-month low.
- Lower margins coincide with improving supply in Asia as more plant-maintenance draws to a close.
- Improving supply and seasonal slowdown in demand could curb refiners’ leverage to target higher prices to reverse recent drop in margins.
MTVA: DA-1241 in Combination with Efruxifermin Shows Additive Hepatoprotective Effects in Mouse MASH Model
- On June 21, 2025, MetaVia Inc. (MTVA) announced the presentation of preclinical data for DA-1241, the company’s novel GPR119 agonist, that showed hepatoprotective effects when administered in combination with Efruxifermin, a fibroblast growth factor 21 (FGF21) analogue, in a mouse model of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH).
- The results were presented in a poster session at the American Diabetes Association 85th Scientific Sessions.
- The data showed that 94% of mice receiving the combination therapy achieved a =2-point improvement in the non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) activity score and immunohistochemistry revealed significantly reduced inflammatory and fibrotic gene expression in the liver.
VIOT: Viomi hits a few speed bumps in the road. Adjusting our valuation target to 4.00
- Viomi recently launched a new filtration system that produces mineral water-like output, which could be a differentiated product in the market, enabling Viomi to gain a share in an increasingly crowded filtration market.
- The company’s inability to file a timely 20-F with the SEC, combined with a recent change in auditors, will likely raise concerns among investors.
- Viomi’s strong balance sheet could enable it to pursue multiple growth strategies (expansion, new products, M&A) over the next 3-5 years.
[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/25] WTI Posted Gain Amid Geopolitical Turmoil and Market Swings
- WTI futures picked up by 1.2% for the week ending 20/Jun, marking its third straight weekly gain. The uptrend was due to the Israel-Iran conflict.
- The U.S. rig count fell by one to 554. The oil rig count fell by one to 438, while gas rigs dropped by two to 111.
- WTI OI PCR fell to 0.87 on 20/Jun compared to 0.89 on 13/Jun. Call OI fell by 8.9% WoW, while put OI dropped by 11.4%.
Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 23 June
- US base oils demand could get support from higher crude oil prices that curb prospect of fall in base oils prices.
- Even so, expectations of ready availability of supplies, combined with seasonal slowdown in lube consumption in coming weeks, likely to incentivize buyers to maintain low stocks.
- Buyers face ongoing challenge of balancing expectations of weak fundamentals with repercussions of higher crude oil prices and risk of weather-related supply disruptions during Atlantic hurricane season.
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Data and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
