In today’s briefing:
- InterContinental Exchange (ICE): Its $14 Billion Mortgage Opportunity Can Power Platform Expansion!
- Crude Oil Reverts Back (Like We Predicted)
- Blue Sky Territory; Bullish Outlook Intact; Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 Breaking to All-Time Highs
- Abercrombie & Fitch Co Cl A – AKA: Remain Bullish After Management Meetings; Reiterate Buy, $30 PT
- Fastly Ignites 64% Growth in Emerging Products as Edge Compute Takes Center Stage…
- The Boston Beer Company: Can Hard Seltzer & Its Brand Repositioning Help It Sustain In The Competitive Landscape?
- Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 30 June
- Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 30 June
- BigCommerce: Will Its Industry-Specific Solutions and B2B Focus Pay Off?
- Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 30 June
InterContinental Exchange (ICE): Its $14 Billion Mortgage Opportunity Can Power Platform Expansion!
- Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. reported a record-breaking performance for the first quarter of 2025, demonstrating significant growth across its diverse business segments even amidst fluctuating macroeconomic conditions.
- The company achieved an adjusted earnings per share of $1.72, marking a 16% increase year-over-year.
- Net revenue rose by 8%, reaching a new high of $2.5 billion.
Crude Oil Reverts Back (Like We Predicted)
- During the past two weeks we highlighted that the upside for oil is only minimal and that trading the “war event” may be the rational thing to do.
- So far, this turned out to be the right call.
- Investment banks seem to be a bit more emotional about the topic.
Blue Sky Territory; Bullish Outlook Intact; Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 Breaking to All-Time Highs
- We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
- Our near-term bullish outlook will remain in place long as the S&P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) are above their 20-day MAs.
- Short-Term SPX support is at 6028-6059 and the 20-day MA, with additional supports at 5804-5854 and 5700-5785. Russell 2000 (IWM) and S&P Mid Caps (IJH) also breaking above key resistances
Abercrombie & Fitch Co Cl A – AKA: Remain Bullish After Management Meetings; Reiterate Buy, $30 PT
- We are reiterating our Buy rating, $30 price target and projections for A.K.A. Brands after meeting with management in their San Francisco headquarters.
- We believe the company has continued to make material progress on multiple fronts, from adding new Princess Polly stores (and upgrading the current fleet), increasing the wholesale presence for both Petal & Pup and Princess Polly, leveraging the “test and repeat” model to return Culture Kings to higher margins and top line growth, and shifting the Australian market to top line expansion.
- When combined with the potential for debt refinancing and continued strong online results (helped by new store expansion), we believe there remains top and bottom line upside, and we are reiterating our Buy rating and $30 price target for AKA.
Fastly Ignites 64% Growth in Emerging Products as Edge Compute Takes Center Stage…
- Fastly Inc.’s earnings report for the first quarter of 2025 highlighted several key aspects of the company’s financial performance and strategic direction, presenting both opportunities and challenges for investors to consider.
- Positively, Fastly reported revenues of $144.5 million, surpassing their guidance range.
- This represents an 8% increase year-over-year, suggesting positive momentum in their revenue growth, notably higher compared to the previous quarter’s 2% growth.
The Boston Beer Company: Can Hard Seltzer & Its Brand Repositioning Help It Sustain In The Competitive Landscape?
- The Boston Beer Company’s latest earnings report for Q1 2025 demonstrates both positive progress and ongoing challenges in a dynamic market environment.
- The company reported a solid start to the year with a 5.3% increase in shipments and a 6.5% rise in revenue, driving its highest first quarter gross margin since 2019 thanks to volume growth and margin enhancement initiatives.
- However, depletions decreased by 1%, indicating that consumption trends remain under pressure amidst broader category headwinds.
Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 30 June
- Asia’s base oils prices recover versus gasoil prices as crude oil prices revert to levels in H1 June 2025.
- Recovery in light-grade base oils margins curbs pressure on refiners to adjust output of those supplies.
- Any moves to sustain base oils output at current levels would coincide with completion of most plant-maintenance work in the region.
Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 30 June
- Asia’s base oils demand could ease as lower crude oil prices curb prospect of refiners adjusting output or raising prices.
- Prospect of seasonal slowdown in consumption and rise in surplus supply in coming weeks adds to incentive to hold back and to procure top-up supplies on need-to basis.
- Demand for Group II heavy grades could get support from concern about tighter availability of Group I heavy neutrals because of upcoming plant-maintenance in southeast Asia and uncertainty about stability of flows from Iran.
BigCommerce: Will Its Industry-Specific Solutions and B2B Focus Pay Off?
- BigCommerce Holdings Inc. (BIGC) recently conducted its first quarter 2025 earnings call, during which key financial and operational metrics were discussed, shaping a comprehensive outlook for investors.
- The quarter demonstrated mixed results with a focus on profitability and business transformation, reflecting a balanced mix of challenges and opportunities.
- The company reported a non-GAAP operating income of $7.6 million, marking a 530 basis point margin improvement year-over-year.
Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 30 June
- US Group II base oils price-premium to VGO rebounds after fall in crude oil prices.
- Excluding brief dip in June 2025, base oils margins hold in narrow range since early April 2025.
- US Group II domestic and export base oils price-premium to VGO rises in Q2 2025 from Q1 2025.
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