In today’s briefing:
- Nvidia’s Jensen Complaining About Export Restrictions to China: How Much Is at Stake? Quite a Lot.
- Circle Internet Group (CRCL): Acquisition Target Moves Ahead with IPO
- Netflix Faces The Heat & The Spotlight: Is The Streaming Giant Still A Safe Bet?
- Alphabet Unleashes A New Wave of AI Tools—Is This The End Of Traditional Search?
- Voyager Technologies Inc. (VOYG): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of the Next Space & Defense Company
- Informatica’s Cloud Surge & AI Push: Why Salesforce Might Strike This Time!
- AT&T Just Snatched the Deal of the Decade—Here’s Why The $5.75B Lumen Acquisition Could Reshape U.S. Fiber Access!
- Kraft Heinz Just Lost Berkshire’s Board Backing—Is A Breakup Or Buyout Next?
- Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 26 May
- Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 26 May
Nvidia’s Jensen Complaining About Export Restrictions to China: How Much Is at Stake? Quite a Lot.
- April 2025, the US Gvt extended restrictions on Nvidia’s China-specific H20 chip. Restriction also apply to H20’s memory bandwidth. This means SK Hynix HBM and TSMC CoWoS.
- Nvidia new China-specific chip derive from this: a downgraded chip, half a Blackwell, without HBM-CoWoS packaging. Time to design, manufacture, could lead to ~15% downside risk to FY26 Consensus?
- FY26 revenues could land at US$175bn or -12% below Consensus at 199bn. $175bn implies 35% growth YoY, Consensus expects 52%. The stock trades at “low” 30x FY26 and 24x FY27.
Circle Internet Group (CRCL): Acquisition Target Moves Ahead with IPO
- Circle will be offering 24 million shares at a $24-$26 range equating to a 5.2b-5.65b valuation.
- The company is a stable coin powerhouse with more than $25 trillion in transacted volume since founding.
- The deal has a potential “floor” with companies reportedly interested in acquiring Circle Internet.
Netflix Faces The Heat & The Spotlight: Is The Streaming Giant Still A Safe Bet?
- In a turbulent 2025, Netflix has emerged as one of the most closely watched tech stocks, not just for its market performance but also for its evolving business strategy.
- The streamer’s share price is up over 30% year-to-date, nearing a $500 billion market cap, outpacing the broader S&P 500 by a wide margin.
- Amid global macro uncertainty and shifting consumer behavior, Netflix is experimenting aggressively — hosting live NFL games, expanding into gaming, leveraging artificial intelligence in content production, and responding to a proposed 100% tariff on foreign-produced films.
Alphabet Unleashes A New Wave of AI Tools—Is This The End Of Traditional Search?
- Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL) has entered a defining phase in its AI journey, unveiling a host of advanced technologies and product integrations that mark its most aggressive push yet into artificial intelligence.
- At the heart of this transformation is Gemini 2.5 Pro, the company’s most advanced AI model, now powering everything from Search and mobile assistants to developer platforms and multimodal queries.
- The rollout of AI Overviews, which now serves over 1.5 billion monthly users, and the launch of AI Mode, capable of handling more complex search tasks, underscore Alphabet’s commitment to redefining user experience through AI.
Voyager Technologies Inc. (VOYG): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of the Next Space & Defense Company
- Their company was purpose-built to address issues at the forefront of defense, national security and space industries and they have organized their business to reflect this goal.
- Since 2019, they have grown their revenue to $144.2 million in 2024 and $34.5 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025.
- The company officially filed for its IPO on May 16th and is highly likely to debut in the month of June.
Informatica’s Cloud Surge & AI Push: Why Salesforce Might Strike This Time!
- Informatica is back in the headlines following renewed acquisition talks with Salesforce, reviving a potential deal that had collapsed in 2024 due to valuation disagreements.
- This time, the context has shifted considerably.
- Informatica’s stock soared 17% on the revived news, while Salesforce’s dipped ahead of its earnings report.
AT&T Just Snatched the Deal of the Decade—Here’s Why The $5.75B Lumen Acquisition Could Reshape U.S. Fiber Access!
- AT&T’s $5.75 billion acquisition of Lumen Technologies’ Mass Markets fiber business is poised to be one of the most significant telecom deals in recent years.
- Expected to close in the first half of 2026, the transaction will transfer approximately 1 million subscribers and 4 million fiber-enabled locations across 11 key states—including markets such as Denver, Seattle, Salt Lake City, Phoenix, and Minneapolis—into AT&T’s growing fiber footprint.
- The move is part of a broader strategy by AT&T to double its fiber coverage to 60 million locations by 2030.
Kraft Heinz Just Lost Berkshire’s Board Backing—Is A Breakup Or Buyout Next?
- The Kraft Heinz Company has ignited speculation across the investment world with its recent confirmation that it is exploring “potential strategic transactions” aimed at unlocking shareholder value.
- This announcement comes at a time of mounting pressure for the food giant, which owns legacy brands such as Heinz, Oscar Mayer, and Kraft.
- Notably, the news coincided with another significant development: Berkshire Hathaway, a long-time stakeholder holding 27.5% of the company, has relinquished its board seats, with Timothy Kenesey and Alicia Knapp stepping down.
Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 26 May
- Global base oils prices mostly hold firm vs feedstock/gasoil prices.
- Firm margins in Asia and Europe point to still-tight supply-demand fundamentals, incentivizing refiners to maintain high output levels.
- Weaker margins in US point to diverging fundamentals compared with other regions.
Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 26 May
- US base oils demand likely to remain more muted as concern about strength of end-user consumption and expectations of improving supply incentivize buyers to maintain low stocks.
- Demand could get support from procurement of additional stocks as buffer against any weather-related supply disruptions during Atlantic hurricane season.
- Any such stock-building would be despite expectations of more readily-available supply over coming months.
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