In today’s briefing:
- SailPoint, Inc. (SAIL) — First Software IPO of the Year: Thoma Bravo Seeking $11.5b IPO Valuation
- SailPoint IPO Valuation Update: Modest Upside, Only ~$690M Will Be Used To Repay a Portion Of Debt
- Northrop Grumman: Does Its Role in National Security Really Shield It From Market Volatility? – Major Drivers
- [US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/05] WTI Falls on Softening Demand Outlook and Rising Inventories
- Visa Inc.: 6 Major Game-Changers Impacting Its 2025 Performance & Beyond! – Major Drivers
- [US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/05] Henry Hub Slipped as Mild Forecasts Undercut Demand
- Baker Hughes: Is Its Upstream Shift Enough to Counter Industry Cyclicality? – Major Drivers
- United Parcel Service (UPS): International Diversification to Capitalize On Emerging Trades! – Major Drivers
- KLA Corporation: Inspection & Metrology Advancements To Possibly Disrupt the Market! – Major Drivers
- Comcast & The Impact Of Its Latest Result: Will Peacock Ever Turn Profitable Amid Streaming Wars? – Major Drivers
SailPoint, Inc. (SAIL) — First Software IPO of the Year: Thoma Bravo Seeking $11.5b IPO Valuation
- SailPoint is sponsor-backed by Thoma Bravo and is seeking a valuation north of $11b after taking the company private in August 2022 for $6.9bn
- The sponsor will be only selling 2.5mm shares in this offering.
- As of October 31, 2024, their annual recurring revenue was $813.2 million, reflecting an increase of 30% compared to October 31, 2023.
SailPoint IPO Valuation Update: Modest Upside, Only ~$690M Will Be Used To Repay a Portion Of Debt
- Austin-Based SailPoint, a Thoma Bravo-backed identity management software company, has announced the initial price range for its US IPO.
- The offering is expected to be between $19.00 and $21.00, implying a market cap of ~$11B at the midpoint, up ~61% vs. take-private transaction valuation of ~$6.9B in 2022.
- I see modest post-listing upside for SailPoint stock, and the company plans to use only ~$690M to repay a portion of its $1.5B+ debt.
Northrop Grumman: Does Its Role in National Security Really Shield It From Market Volatility? – Major Drivers
- Northrop Grumman reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 financial results, showcasing both achievements and challenges.
- The company ended the year with a record backlog of approximately $91.5 billion and a book-to-bill ratio of 1.23x, indicating strong demand in both domestic and international markets.
- This demand is supported by new contract wins, such as the TACAMO program and the B-21’s second LRIP Lot, as well as ongoing programs like Poland’s IBCS system, which contributes to an international book-to-bill ratio of 1.4x.
[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/05] WTI Falls on Softening Demand Outlook and Rising Inventories
- WTI futures fell by 2.9% for the week ending 31/Jan on the back of trade policy uncertainty, growing U.S. crude stockpiles, and a strengthening dollar.
- WTI options Put/Call volume ratio increased to 1.31 from 0.85 (24/Jan) last week, as call volume rose by 78.1% WoW while put volume surged by 176.3%.
- WTI OI PCR fell to 1.00 from 1.01 last week. Call OI rose by 8.9% WoW, while put OI grew by 6.9%.
Visa Inc.: 6 Major Game-Changers Impacting Its 2025 Performance & Beyond! – Major Drivers
- Visa Inc. recently reported its fiscal first quarter 2025 earnings, showcasing both strengths and areas for potential improvement.
- Positively, Visa demonstrated robust revenue growth, marked by a 10% increase year-over-year, reaching $9.5 billion, with earnings per share rising by 14%.
- Significant growth drivers included a 9% increase in payments volume and a 16% boost in cross-border volumes, excluding intra-Europe transactions.
[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/05] Henry Hub Slipped as Mild Forecasts Undercut Demand
- For the week ending 31/Jan, U.S. natural gas prices dropped by 24.4% amid volatile weather forecasts and softening heating demand outlook.
- Henry Hub Put/Call volume ratio increased to 1.50 from 1.05 (24/Jan) the previous week as call volumes fell by 40.2% WoW, while put volumes declined by 14.7%.
- Henry Hub OI PCR rose to 0.96 from 0.93 from last week. Call OI fell by 17.0% WoW, while put OI decreased by 14.6%.
Baker Hughes: Is Its Upstream Shift Enough to Counter Industry Cyclicality? – Major Drivers
- Baker Hughes Company (Baker Hughes) presented a strong performance in the fourth quarter of 2024, showing notable growth across several financial metrics, yet managing challenges characteristic of the energy and industrial sectors.
- The company exceeded the midpoint of its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) guidance for the eighth consecutive quarter.
- The fourth quarter set new records for revenue, free cash flow, adjusted earnings per share (EPS), and adjusted EBITDA and margins.
United Parcel Service (UPS): International Diversification to Capitalize On Emerging Trades! – Major Drivers
- United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) delivered a mixed fourth-quarter 2024 performance, reflecting strategic operational adjustments and market challenges.
- Highlighting a slight revenue growth with significant profit and margin expansion, UPS navigated the complexities of a shifting logistics landscape while undergoing significant operational transformations.
- UPS reported a consolidated revenue increase of 1.5% year-over-year to $25.3 billion for Q4 2024.
KLA Corporation: Inspection & Metrology Advancements To Possibly Disrupt the Market! – Major Drivers
- KLA Corporation reported strong financial results for both the December 2024 quarter and the entire calendar year, showcasing resilience and solid growth amidst a challenging industry backdrop.
- The company achieved record revenue of $10.85 billion for the year, marking a 12% increase year-over-year, with their Process Control revenue growing over 12%, indicating an increase in market share.
- This was matched by a robust Service business performance, which grew 15% to $2.5 billion.
Comcast & The Impact Of Its Latest Result: Will Peacock Ever Turn Profitable Amid Streaming Wars? – Major Drivers
- Comcast Corporation has delivered record financial results for both the fourth quarter and the full year of 2024, confirming substantial growth across various segments despite encountering competitive and strategic challenges.
- The company’s total revenue reached $124 billion, with an adjusted EBITDA of $38 billion, marking a new high in Comcast’s financial history.
- Earnings per share (EPS) adjusted grew by 9%, demonstrating robust profitability along with significant free cash flow of $12.5 billion.
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