In today’s briefing:
- Shining Silver Set To Go Parabolic Powered by Gold, Supply Deficit, & Weak Dollar
- [WTI Options Weekly 2025/29] WTI Retreats as Supply Worries and Bearish Sentiment Resurface
- Something Is Brewing…
- McGraw Hill IPO: Legacy Publisher to an EdTech Play. Key Facts, Financials and Valuation
- [Earnings Preview] Chevron Faces the Heat as Earnings Projected to Slide and Traders Turn Defensive
- [Earnings Preview] Exxon Braces for Weakest Quarter Since 2021 But Markets Bet on a Surprise
- [Henry Hub Options Weekly 2025/29] Henry Hub Gained on Better Demand Despite Supply Concerns
- Cleveland-Cliffs Q2 FY25: Strong Beat, H2 Upside Intact, Valuation Still Undemanding
- Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 21 July
- BBW: Snapping the Store; Going to the Next Level; Reiterate Buy, $65 PT
Shining Silver Set To Go Parabolic Powered by Gold, Supply Deficit, & Weak Dollar
- Silver (SILVER COMDTY) going parabolic. Why? Three reasons. Stratospheric Gold prices. Robust industrial demand amid supply constraints. Weaking dollar.
- Silver IV is spiking up. Especially, Up Var jumped 10.7% to 35.64 signalling rising bullish sentiments among options market makers.
- Silver is forecasted to have supply deficit seventh year in succession.
[WTI Options Weekly 2025/29] WTI Retreats as Supply Worries and Bearish Sentiment Resurface
- WTI futures dropped by 3.5% for the week ending 18/Jul, marking its first fall in three weeks. The downtrend was driven by fears over oversupply and weak demand.
- The U.S. rig count rose by seven to 544, led by a rise in gas rigs. Oil rigs dropped for the twelfth straight week, down by two to 422.
- WTI OI PCR rose to 0.96 on 18/Jul compared to 0.91 on 11/Jul. Call OI fell by 22.8% WoW, while put OI dropped by 18.4%.
Something Is Brewing…
- The Abrdn Commodity Index is putting in a textbook head and shoulders consolidation pattern.
- These chart patterns with a large base have the tendency to build the fundament for big breakouts. Something is brewing from a technical perspective here…
- The ETF is tracking the Bloomberg Commodity Index Total Return (BCOM).
McGraw Hill IPO: Legacy Publisher to an EdTech Play. Key Facts, Financials and Valuation
- McGraw Hill (MH US) , a leading name in educational publishing, is offering 24.39 mn shares to raise up to USD537 mn targeting an equity valuation of USD4.2 billion.
- McGraw Hill is a global provider of educational content and digital learning solutions, serving the K-12, higher education, and professional learning markets. Digital segment accounted for 65% of its revenues.
- McGraw Hill’s transition from print to predominantly digital positions the company to benefit from several structural shifts in the education sector.
[Earnings Preview] Chevron Faces the Heat as Earnings Projected to Slide and Traders Turn Defensive
- Chevron’s Q2 2025 revenue is expected to drop 8% QoQ and 14.5% YoY. Its EPS is projected to drop 21.6% QoQ and 32.9% YoY.
- Chevron’s Q2 earnings are expected to fall to their lowest level since 2021, primarily due to weak crude oil and natural gas prices.
- Bearish sentiment dominates options positioning, with elevated put-call ratios and heavy put open interest near key support levels.
[Earnings Preview] Exxon Braces for Weakest Quarter Since 2021 But Markets Bet on a Surprise
- Exxon’s Q2 2025 revenue is expected to drop 3% QoQ and 13.4% YoY. Its EPS is projected to drop 11.4% QoQ and 27.1% YoY.
- Exxon’s Q2 earnings are expected to hit their lowest since Q3 2021, driven by weak crude and gas prices despite stronger refining margins.
- Options market positioning shows a bullish bias, suggesting traders are betting on a potential upside surprise.
[Henry Hub Options Weekly 2025/29] Henry Hub Gained on Better Demand Despite Supply Concerns
- For the week ending 18/Jul, Henry Hub rebounded by 7.6% on the back of warm weather forecasts and rising gas flows to LNG export terminals.
- For the week ending 11/Jul, the EIA reported that U.S. natural gas inventories rose by 46 Bcf, higher than analyst expectations of a 44 Bcf build.
- Henry Hub OI PCR remained unchanged at 0.87 on 18/Jul compared to 11/Jul. Call OI grew by 3.1% WoW, while put OI increased by 3.3%.
Cleveland-Cliffs Q2 FY25: Strong Beat, H2 Upside Intact, Valuation Still Undemanding
- Q2 EBITDA of $97M beat expectations by $132M, driven by record shipments, a $15/ton cost cut, and ASP of $1,015/ton.
- Management reaffirmed a $50/ton cost-reduction target, expects H2 free cash flow inflection, and sees stable shipments with pricing support.
- Despite a 12.5% post-earnings rally, CLF trades at just 0.55x P/B and $653/ton EV, a steep discount to U.S. peers like Nucor and SDI.
Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 21 July
- Asia’s heavy-grade base oils price-premium to Singapore gasoil stays elevated even as it edges lower.
- Firm margins incentivize refiners to maintain high output of heavy-grade base oils.
- Firm margins and high output could trigger rise in surplus supplies.
BBW: Snapping the Store; Going to the Next Level; Reiterate Buy, $65 PT
- We are reiterating our Buy rating, $65 price target and projections for Build-A-Bear Workshop after visiting stores in Long Island and Connecticut.
- Even though we are in the dog days of Summer, Build-A-Bear has seen no slowdown in innovation, launching their first round of licensed Mini Beans (Hello Kitty and Friends), leveraging the recent Superman movie release, beginning to roll out new fixtures for Mini Beans, expanding their relationship with cheer-leading leader Varsity Sports and launching new Giant licensed characters (Bluey).
- With Halloween on track for release next month, we believe there has been no slowdown in momentum for the company, and we remain confident in Build-A-Bear’s potential to drive further top and bottom line upside; as such, we reiterate our Buy rating and $65 price target for BBW.
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