Daily Brief United States: US 10Y, S&P 500, Chewy Inc and more

In today’s briefing:

US Yield Tactical Tops and Forward Higher Yield Trajectory
Another Bear Market Rally Brewing?; Stick With Biotech and Construction/Engineering Names
Chewy: Post-Pandemic Slowdown Is Here To Stay While Insiders Are Cashing Out

US Yield Tactical Tops and Forward Higher Yield Trajectory

US 10yr yield pivot support at 3.50% will determine if we reach for the 4.19% blow off projection. Macro breakout points, pullback and forward targets the focus.
5 wave rise is noted with retracement synergy that sets the stage for a yield pullback as deflationary forces surface in 2023.
Long term yield breakouts are noted for a yield retreat in 2023 ahead of higher inflation and yield projections in 2024 and a probable credit event.

In last week’s Compass (Sept. 27) we discussed our belief that market indexes could see a bounce or pause in selling, citing numerous oversold indexes/Sectors that were testing critical supports.
Supports included 3636 on the S&P 500, $269 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and $162 on the Russell 2000 (IWM).
Supports held, and early indications suggest a bear market rally is brewing (at minimum), helped by short-term bearish engulfing patterns on the DXY and 10-year Treasury yield last Wednesday.

Chewy Inc (CHWY US) , one of the largest pure-play pet e-commerce companies that benefited from COVID-19 pandemic, reported 13% y/y revenue growth in 2QFY22, down from 47% in 2QFY20.
The company’s management, including CEO and Director Mr. Singh, sold ~$25M worth of Chewy shares this year, and BC Partners dumped 6.1M shares at $82.50 each in 2021.
Our bear case scenario suggests further room for downside on post-pandemic slowdown, rising costs, intense competition in the pet space, and weak consumer spending.

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