In today’s briefing:
- Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for Dec25
- AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2025): New Listings Shaking Up the Rankings
- [Japan Pump ‘n Dump] Murakami Group Starts Selling The Day After Reporting 5%
- SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: Valuation Insights
- 3SBio (1530 HK)’s Spin-Off and Listing of Mandi Inc.
- The Nikkei Semiconductor Index Rebalance, Kioxia, Nikkei Volatility Hedge
- HEW: Micro Risk Off
- Korea’s 25% Dividend Tax Basically Locked In, Market Now Trading the 30% Payout Angle
- UltraGreen.ai Pre-IPO: Strong Financials Despite Misleading Branding
- US: 19 IPOs Forecasted for Index Addition in December 2025
Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for Dec25
- Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 5 December.
- We highlight 6 stocks that have a higher probability of being added to the index. With the index committee entitled to a lot of discretion, there will be differences.
- CATL (3750 HK) will have a 6-month trading history by implementation of the index changes and is a high probability inclusion to the index. But cornerstone lock-up ends tomorrow.
AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2025): New Listings Shaking Up the Rankings
- We forecast 7 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 10 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 3 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 11 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.
- From the new listings, 13 stocks are expected to be added to Large Cap, 5 stocks are expected to be added to Mid Cap, and multiple stocks to Small Cap.
- With the review period nearing completion, there could still be more outperformance given the momentum, but we would look to take profit on the stocks as the divergence gets wider.
[Japan Pump ‘n Dump] Murakami Group Starts Selling The Day After Reporting 5%
- On 20 October, Murakami Group reported they’d gone over 5% in cash/asset-rich DeNA (2432 JP). Not easy with insiders+Crossholders at 39%, passive at 24%. But not impossible.
- On 30 October, they reported they’d gone to 6.31% on 23 October (four days before they reported the 5%.
- As reported here before, Murakami-san sometimes does what might charitably be called a headfake, less charitably a Pump ‘n Dump.
SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: Valuation Insights
- SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP), a Japanese financial institution, is looking to relist by raising about US$2 billion. The primary/secondary split is 40%/60%.
- I discussed the investment thesis in SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: The Investment Case.
- In this note, I discuss valuation. My analysis suggests that SBI Shinsei is fairly valued at the IPO price of JPY1,440 per share.
3SBio (1530 HK)’s Spin-Off and Listing of Mandi Inc.
- Pharma-Play 3SBio Inc (1530 HK) has announced the spin-off and listing of 87.16%-held Mandi (MANDI HK) on the HKEx.
- 3SBio will distribute its stake in-specie. There will be a concurrent global offering, the details of which are still to be fleshed out.
- Mandi (MANDI HK), a ” hair loss and weight management treatments” solutions provider, accounted for 17% of 3SBio’s revs in the 1H25, and 12.5% of profit.
The Nikkei Semiconductor Index Rebalance, Kioxia, Nikkei Volatility Hedge
- Kioxia set for inclusion in the Nikkei Semiconductor Index next week, alongside JX Advanced Metals, less than one day’s average daily volume in passive inflow at the close.
- Kioxia’s Q2 2025 results show an accelerating QoQ recovery and solid Q3 2025 forecasts, driven by high demand from data center and smart device products, confirming effective business structure reform.
- Stock is fairly valued after 2025 rally, potential weaknesses being value metrics such as P/E alongside execution of margin and product pipeline targets.
HEW: Micro Risk Off
- Risk assets have suffered, despite decent Nvidia results suggesting AI demand hasn’t turned yet, and the macro data remaining resilient. Fears are more theme-specific.
- US labour market activity entered the shutdown solidly, and low jobless claims suggest it survived fine. Meanwhile, UK inflation only lost a little excess, and our forecast rose.
- Next week’s UK Budget is the lowlight of our week, but it may struggle to live up to all the noisy hype. Sneaky backloaded tax hikes will close the latest forecast hole again.
Korea’s 25% Dividend Tax Basically Locked In, Market Now Trading the 30% Payout Angle
- Starting next week, the tax subcommittee is set to hash out the 25% proposal, and with the opposition unlikely to block it, the 25% top rate is basically locked in.
- The street’s treating 30% payout as base case, betting on more upside. The committee may pick it up next week, with headlines likely hitting the KRX tape fast.
- Locals are already chasing 30%+ payout, deep-value names, with gov’t aiming for a Taiwan-style re-rating. If dividend-tax headlines drop next week, these screened names could rip.
UltraGreen.ai Pre-IPO: Strong Financials Despite Misleading Branding
- UltraGreen.AI (2594794D SP) is looking to raise US$400m in its upcoming Singapore IPO.
- Ultragreen is a global leader in Fluorescence Guided Surgery (FGS), a surgical approach that helps doctors see things inside the body that are normally invisible under regular white light.
- In this note, we look at the company’s past performance.
US: 19 IPOs Forecasted for Index Addition in December 2025
- All eligible US IPOs that went public from 1 August to 31 October will get added to a major US index in December 2025.
- The largest forecasted IPO additions in terms of market cap are Bullish US (BLSH US), FT Intermediate (FIGR US) and Fermi (FRMI US).
- The largest forecasted IPO additions in terms of passive fund impact include Legence (LGN US), Via Transportation (VIA US) and Avidia Bancorp (AVBC US).
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