In today’s briefing:
- Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance Preview: Stock Price Moves Shrink Capping Trade
- CSI300 Index Rebalance: 11 Changes & US$7.77bn Trade
- FXI Rebalance: 3 Changes as H/A Premium Trades Back in Focus
- Aspen Group (APZ AU): Global Sector Index Inclusion
- China A50 ETF Rebalance: Two Sets of Changes
- Dongfeng (489 HK): Revisiting VOYAH’s Spin-Off Valuation
- HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN): Tactical Outlook Post–NIFTY Bank Index Overhaul
- 2026 (“Year of the Horse”) Major IPOs Pipeline in Korea
- HEW: Easing Before The Festive Storm
- Guangdong Tianyu IPO Trading: Weak Insti and Retail Demand
Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance Preview: Stock Price Moves Shrink Capping Trade
- The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) transitioned from the tracking the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index in September.
- Dundee Precious Metals (DPM CN)‘s stock price has continued to move higher and is likely to be added to the index in December.
- Stock moves over the last month have shrunk the capping trade massively. Estimated one-way turnover is 1.8% and the round trip trade is US$1.75bn.
CSI300 Index Rebalance: 11 Changes & US$7.77bn Trade
- There are 11 changes for the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) with implementation taking place at the close on 12 December.
- Nearly all the changes are in line with forecasts. Jiangsu Zhongtian Technologies Co, Ltd. (600522 CH) is the one surprise addition.
- The adds outperformed the deletes and the CSI300 from June-September but have given back a chunk of the gains since then. Expect positioning to build over the next few days.
FXI Rebalance: 3 Changes as H/A Premium Trades Back in Focus
- As forecast, there will be 3 constituent changes for the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI US) at the close of trading on 19 December.
- Two of the inclusions will also have inflows from the FGlobal Index at the same time, while the third is an HSCEI INDEX add at the close tomorrow.
- The HA premiums for CATL (3750 HK) and Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals (1276 HK) dropped prior to lock-up expiry and there could be a short-term premium expansion closer to index/ETF inclusion.
Aspen Group (APZ AU): Global Sector Index Inclusion
- Aspen Group (APZ AU) will be added to a global sector index at the close 19 December. The stock is also a potential inclusion to a global index in March.
- Estimated passive buying in Aspen Group (APZ AU) is U$21m and positioning in the stock could continue to build in the next few days.
- Positioning in the stock has been increasing over the last few months with a jump that started at the beginning of November.
China A50 ETF Rebalance: Two Sets of Changes
- CMOC (603993 CH) and Sungrow Power Supply (300274 CH) will replace S.F. Holding (002352 CH) and Bank of Jiangsu (600919 CH) in the ETFs at the close on 19 December.
- Passive trackers will need to trade between 0.1-0.5 days of ADV in the constituent changes.
- The adds have outperformed the deletes by a big margin over the last 6 months. After a period of underperformance in November, the adds have started moving higher again.
Dongfeng (489 HK): Revisiting VOYAH’s Spin-Off Valuation
- Back on the 22nd August 2025, SOE-backed Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) announced a privatisation; together with a concurrent listing of its EV arm, VOYAH. The two proposals are interconditional.
- In its October application proof, VOYAH turned a profit in 7M25. The market was implying a price-to-trailing-sales of 1.5x for VOYAH, versus the basket average of 2.1x. It’s now ~1.2x.
- Key PRC reg approvals (Mofcom/NDRC/SAFE) remain outstanding. Meanwhile, a basket of peers are down 21% since the dual proposals were announced. And their average price-to-trailing-sales are down to 1.7x.
HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN): Tactical Outlook Post–NIFTY Bank Index Overhaul
- Brian Freitas has discussed in a recent insight the methodology changes for the NSE Nifty Bank Index that will be implemented starting from December 30.
- HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) is one of the two stocks that passive trackers need to sell (the other is ICICI Bank Ltd).
- HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) is falling this week, so we analyze our model’s WEEKLY support entry zones, to evaluate how much HDFC Bank can fall, for hedging or re-entry purpose.
2026 (“Year of the Horse”) Major IPOs Pipeline in Korea
- This is our 11th “Annual Edition of the Major Korean IPOs Pipeline Preview” at Smartkarma.
- This insight features 40 of the biggest potential IPOs in Korea in 2026.
- Some of the largest potential IPOs in Korea in 2026 include CJ Olive Young, DN Solutions, Dunamu, Goodai Global, K Bank, Kurly, Musinsa, SK On, SK Ecoplant, and Sono International.
HEW: Easing Before The Festive Storm
- The BoE FPC cut capital requirements in a surprise macroprudential easing that adds to the less-tight fiscal policy to lessen the need for BoE rate cuts, but one is coming.
- UK CFOs reveal no progress in breaking excessive inflation expectations for 18 months, EA inflation surprisingly rose, and the worst PMIs improved as resilience broadened.
- Another Fed cut is firmly priced, setting it up to be delivered, but members are likely to dissent against it and remain cautious in only forecasting one more cut in 2026.
Guangdong Tianyu IPO Trading: Weak Insti and Retail Demand
- Guangdong Tianyu Semiconductor (2223725D CH) raised around US$224m in its HK IPO.
- It was founded in 2009, and is the largest domestic PRC SiC epitaxal wafer manufacturer both in terms of revenue and sales volume, as of 2024.
- We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.
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