In today’s briefing:
- S&P/ASX Indices: Proposed Methodology Changes & The BIG September Rebalance
- Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Impact of Benchmark Change – Update
- Greatland Resources (GGP AU): Big Index Inclusions for Recent IPO
- Curator’s Cut: Building Materials Moves, Benchmarking Gold Miners & Semaglutide in India and Japan
- Gemlife (GLF AU): Index Inclusions Start Later This Year
- Contact Energy/Manawa Energy: Index Flows as Deal Nears Completion
- FWD Group (1828 HK): Offering Details & Index Entry Timeline
- Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Sep25 Results: Methodology Change Could Result in a Surprise Addition
- KRX Semicon Index Sep Rebalance — Watch Closely
- Tariff War, Weather Hit Thai Rubber Exports Hard In April
S&P/ASX Indices: Proposed Methodology Changes & The BIG September Rebalance
- S&P DJI have proposed methodology changes to the S&P/ASX family of indices to enhance representativeness and more quickly reflecting changing market conditions.
- The main changes are lowering the minimum float threshold, shortening the market cap calculation period and the liquidity calculation period, and including buffers for additions and deletions.
- We currently forecast 47 changes to the S&P/ASX family of indices in September and the short market cap computation period could lead to more change over the next two months.
Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Impact of Benchmark Change – Update
- The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) has announced a benchmark change from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index.
- The benchmark change will result in a bunch of constituent and weight changes in September. Estimated one-way turnover is 16.5% resulting in a one-way trade of US$3.15bn.
- The flow and turnover numbers will change following constituent and capping changes for the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the September rebalance.
Greatland Resources (GGP AU): Big Index Inclusions for Recent IPO
- Greatland Resources (GGP AU) started trading on the ASX Ltd (ASX AU) on 24 June after selling shares worth A$504m in a primary and secondary offering across Australia/UK.
- Greatland has a full market cap of A$4.9bn and a high free float since Greatland Gold Plc (GGP LN) was listed on the AIM market of the London Stock Exchange.
- Given the large market cap and high float, the stock could be added to multiple indices over the next few months.
Curator’s Cut: Building Materials Moves, Benchmarking Gold Miners & Semaglutide in India and Japan
- Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,000+ insights published over the past two weeks on Smartkarma
- In this cut, we spotlight building materials corporate actions, gold miners’ benchmark shifts, and semaglutide’s prospects in India and Japan
- Want to dig deeper? Comment or message on the themes you think should be highlighted next
Gemlife (GLF AU): Index Inclusions Start Later This Year
- Gemlife (GLF AU) is looking to raise A$750m in a primary offering, valuing the company at A$1.58bn. The stock is expected to start trading on 3 July.
- The Puljich family and Thakral Corp (THK SP) are escrowed on their shares till mid 2026 at the earliest.
- Gemlife (GLF AU) could be added to global indexes in November and December this year, but S&P/ASX 300 Index inclusion could take place only in March 2026.
Contact Energy/Manawa Energy: Index Flows as Deal Nears Completion
- Contact Energy (CEN NZ) is acquiring Manawa Energy Ltd (MNW NZ) for NZ$1.12/share in cash and 0.583 Contact Energy shares for each share of Manawa Energy.
- Manawa Energy (MNW NZ) is expected to stop trading after the close on 7 July. There will be passive inflows for Contact Energy (CEN NZ) due to increased index shares.
- As a replacement for Manawa Energy Ltd (MNW NZ), there will be an ad hoc inclusion to the S&P/NZX 50 Index at the close of 7 July.
FWD Group (1828 HK): Offering Details & Index Entry Timeline
- FWD Group Holdings (FWD HK) is looking to raise up to HK$3.99bn (US$508m) in its IPO, valuing the company at HK$48.82bn (US$6.22bn).
- Cornerstone investors will take up more than half the base offering and that will delay index inclusion to well into 2026.
- FWD Group Holdings (FWD HK) could be added to the HSCI Index and Southbound Stock Connect in December. That could bring some buying into the stock from mainland investors.
Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Sep25 Results: Methodology Change Could Result in a Surprise Addition
- In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the September 2025 index rebal event.
- We see three M&A-related intra-review changes for the F250 index prior to the September 2025 review (one announced later today) and then two more shortly after the rebal event.
- Our latest estimates suggest there could be one regular change for the F250 index during the September 2025 rebalance. We do not currently see any changes for the F100.
KRX Semicon Index Sep Rebalance — Watch Closely
- 67 semi names screen into TMI Large-Mid; with stable churn, they’re a solid base for the Sept rebalance. Filter by ADTV and mkt cap to get likely basket.
- Last year’s Sept rebalance saw wild moves, especially in the week prior, driven by low visibility from the non-public BMI universe, which amped up uncertainty and volatility.
- This year’s TMI-based rebalance may see more front-loading and smoother flows, but with low market awareness and no playbook yet, chunky moves are still on the table.
Tariff War, Weather Hit Thai Rubber Exports Hard In April
- Thailand’s rubber export value dips 18.58% MoM in April 2025
- Staggering 43.6% fall in Thai rubber imports value to China
- Rubber producers can now use trees as collateral for loans
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