In today’s briefing:
- MV Global Defense Industry Index Rebalance: Hanwha Systems Added as Stocks Play Offence
- MV Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy/Infra Index Rebalance: Changes Lead to US$445m Trade
- Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Benchmark Change; 8 Adds, 24 Deletes, US$12.7bn Trade
- Soft99 Corp (4464 JP): Shock and Awe as Effissimo Emerges with a Competing Offer
- MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Capping Leads to US$3bn Trade
- HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 12 Sep 2025); HUGE Single Stock Trading, ETFs Meh. Tech Bought Bigly
- [Japan M&A/Activism] SOFT99 MBO Sees Activist EffissimoOverbid by 66%! Will This Set New Precedent?
- MarketVector Vietnam Local Index Rebalance: 4 Adds; 9.5% Turnover; US$112m Trade
- MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: 13 Adds, 2 Deletes; US$2.5bn Trade
- [Quiddity Index Sep25] KOSPI 200 Leaderboard for Dec25 Rebal: 6 ADDs + 6 DELs, 1.5 Pairs to Trade
MV Global Defense Industry Index Rebalance: Hanwha Systems Added as Stocks Play Offence
- Hanwha Systems Co Ltd (272210 KS) will be added to the MarketVector Global Defense Industry Index at the close on 19 September.
- The constituent change, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 3.1% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$437m.
- Inflows to the tracking ETF have slowed down but there could be more inflows after a period of consolidation in the underlying stocks.
MV Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy/Infra Index Rebalance: Changes Lead to US$445m Trade
- There is 1 add/delete for the MarketVector Global Uranium and Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index while there are no constituent changes for the MVIS Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy Index.
- Encore Energy (EU US) will replace Boss Energy (BOE AU) in the MarketVector Global Uranium and Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index.
- The round-trip trade across both indices is US$445m with capping changes resulting in much bigger flow for the MVIS Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy Index.
Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Benchmark Change; 8 Adds, 24 Deletes, US$12.7bn Trade
- There is 1 add for the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index but the VanEck Gold Miners ETF will buy 8 stocks and sell 24 stocks due to a benchmark change.
- Estimated one-way turnover is 26.8% and the round-trip trade for the ETF is US$12.7bn. There are 23 stocks with over 5x ADV to trade.
- The ETF adds have underperformed the ETF sells in the last month, but a basket of ETF upweights has outperformed a basket of ETF downweights.
Soft99 Corp (4464 JP): Shock and Awe as Effissimo Emerges with a Competing Offer
- On 12 September, Kyodo News reported that Effissimo Capital Management will launch a competing tender offer for Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) at JPY4,100, 66.3% higher than the JPY2,465 MBO offer.
- The Effissimo offer structure has been designed to shine an unflattering spotlight on the MBO low-ball offer and to prevent management from privatising Soft99.
- The management has several options to respond. The initial play will likely be to lean on the special committee to question the feasibility of the Effissimo bid.
MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Capping Leads to US$3bn Trade
- There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF in September but there are a lot of float and capping changes.
- Estimated one-way turnover is 5.25% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$3bn. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US) is the largest impact passive sell.
- There will be more flows in a lot of these stocks from Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US) at the close on Friday.
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 12 Sep 2025); HUGE Single Stock Trading, ETFs Meh. Tech Bought Bigly
- Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes just under US$20+bn a day this past 5-day week. BIG Net buying. Big BABA trading.
- SOUTHBOUND investors traded US$9bn of Alibaba (9988 HK) in the week. Not shy. It was a big net buy as well (4 of 5 days was +US$500mm or more).
- The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there for all SK readers.
[Japan M&A/Activism] SOFT99 MBO Sees Activist EffissimoOverbid by 66%! Will This Set New Precedent?
- In early August, the founder-family announced they would MBO the car care company Soft99 Corp (4464 JP). It was a very cheap MBO. Even 20% higher it would be cheap.
- On Saturday, Kyodo, followed by various other media outlets, announced activist Effissimo Capital Management had announced a TOB to buy the company saying the MBO was “an extremely low level.”
- The Nikkei-reported goal would be “to protect the interests of minority shareholders while ensuring medium- to long-term increases in corporate value.” This is REALLY BIG NEWS.
MarketVector Vietnam Local Index Rebalance: 4 Adds; 9.5% Turnover; US$112m Trade
- FPT Corp,Vietnam Airlines Jsc, Sacombank and Gelex Electricity Jsc will be added to the MarketVector Vietnam Local Index at the close on 19 September.
- Estimated one-way turnover is 9.5% and that results in a round-trip trade of US$112m. There are a couple of stocks with more than 1x ADV to buy from passives.
- The largest passive inflow will be in Masan Group (MSN VN) following a large increase in the free float for the stock.
MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: 13 Adds, 2 Deletes; US$2.5bn Trade
- There are 13 adds, 2 deletes and 1 listing change for the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US) in September. There are capping and float changes too.
- Estimated one-way turnover is 14.5% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$2.5bn. There are 12 stocks with over 3x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
- There are multiple stocks that will have same-way flows from other index trackers at the same time, and the impact will be amplified.
[Quiddity Index Sep25] KOSPI 200 Leaderboard for Dec25 Rebal: 6 ADDs + 6 DELs, 1.5 Pairs to Trade
- KOSPI 200 is a Korean blue-chip index that tracks the 200 largest and most-liquid names listed in the KOSPI section of the Korea Exchange (KRX). It’s popular.
- Inside, we look at the names likely to become ADDs and DELs during the upcoming semiannual review in December 2025. We see up to 6 ADDs and 6 DELs.
- There are 1.5 pairs I like here even though we have weeks left. One is “surer” than the other, but they both work fundamentally.
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