In today’s briefing:
- Light & Wonder (LNW AU): Index Implications of NASDAQ Delisting & ASX Primary Listing
- KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: 7 Changes a Side for December
- Merger Arb Mondays (03 Nov) – ANE, Dongfeng, Mayne, AUB, Digital Holdings, Makino, Soft99, SCSK
- Japan 2025 H1 Bank Guidance/Results – Strong Upward Revisions Like Last Year – Likely More To Come
- Pine Labs IPO: Slashed Offering Size & Lower Valuation
- ECM Weekly (3 November 2025)-Sany, Seres, CIG, PonyAI, WeRide, Mininglamp, Lenskart, Groww, Softcare
- HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: 3 Changes as Adds Go Up, Up & Away
- Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Dec25: Final Expectations; US$1bn+ Combined One-Way Flows
- A/H Premium Tracker (Week to 31 Oct 2025): Beautiful Skew Behaving Badly But RMB Counters Approach
- India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in November
Light & Wonder (LNW AU): Index Implications of NASDAQ Delisting & ASX Primary Listing
- Light & Wonder (LNW US) will stop trading on the NASDAQ after the close on 12 November and the sole primary listing will move to Light & Wonder (LNW AU).
- Index trackers will need to sell a lot of Light&Wonder (LNW US) at the close on 12 November. The buying in Light&Wonder (LNW AU) is a lot smaller.
- Light & Wonder (LNW AU) trades at a much lower forward PE compared to Aristocrat Leisure (ALL AU) and there could be a re-rating over the medium-term.
KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: 7 Changes a Side for December
- With the review period complete, there could be 7 changes for the Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) in December.
- There may not be any intra-review changes following the Hyundai Heavy Industries/ Hyundai Mipo merger due to timing and also due to Samsung Biologics‘ spinoff being added to the index.
- The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes and the KOSPI2 INDEX over the last few months and in the short-term too.
Merger Arb Mondays (03 Nov) – ANE, Dongfeng, Mayne, AUB, Digital Holdings, Makino, Soft99, SCSK
- I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
- Highest spreads: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Brainpad Inc (3655 JP), Smart Share Global (EM US), AUB Group Limited (AUB AU), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK).
- Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Mandom Corp (4917 JP), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Seven West Media (SWM AU), Humm Group (HUM AU), Toyota Industries (6201 JP).
Japan 2025 H1 Bank Guidance/Results – Strong Upward Revisions Like Last Year – Likely More To Come
- In the days approaching H1 results in 2024, Japanese banks raised H1 guidance. Among the top 50 banks outside the top 10, the increase was significant.
- This year, out of those 50 banks, 12 have either reported (2) or raised guidance (10) for H1 in the past five weeks by an average of 47% (median 43%).
- Higher loan income, core business profits, and lower credit costs are the main culprits. Expect lots more guidance revisions in the next 10 days.
Pine Labs IPO: Slashed Offering Size & Lower Valuation
- Pine Labs (0568874D IN) is looking to list on the exchanges by selling 176.5m shares via a primary and secondary offering to raise US$439m at a valuation of US$2.86bn.
- The price band has been set at INR 210-221/share and could price at the top end of the range. The IPO raise and valuation are sharply lower than earlier reports.
- Inclusion at regular rebalances will commence in May but flow will be small given the low float and the Smallcap indices that it is added to.
ECM Weekly (3 November 2025)-Sany, Seres, CIG, PonyAI, WeRide, Mininglamp, Lenskart, Groww, Softcare
- Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
- On the IPO front, there were a flurry of deal launches across Hong Kong and India.
- On the placements front, while the week was rather quiet, we did have a look at the upcoming lockup release.
HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: 3 Changes as Adds Go Up, Up & Away
- There could be 3 changes for the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) in December. Announcement is on 21 November with implementation at the close on 5 December.
- The forecast adds have moved higher over the last few months and handily outperformed the forecast deletes and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX).
- There has been aggressive short covering in the forecast adds and there could be more in stocks where short interest is still a high percentage of float.
Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Dec25: Final Expectations; US$1bn+ Combined One-Way Flows
- The ChiNext index represents the performance of the 100 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the ChiNext Market of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.
- The ChiNext 50 index is a subset of the ChiNext Index and it consists of the top 50 names in the ChiNext index with the highest daily average turnover.
- In this insight, we have presented our final expectations for ADDs and DELs for the upcoming December 2025 index rebal event. 11 ADDs, 11 DELs, $2.3bn to trade.
A/H Premium Tracker (Week to 31 Oct 2025): Beautiful Skew Behaving Badly But RMB Counters Approach
- Big Beautiful Skew was again a no-show. But the SFC’s expectation of dual counter eligibility for Connect by year-end approaches its endgame.
- The GAC (2238 HK) reco 2wks ago worked well. One extra week was bad. Last week’s reco on CNOOC Ltd (883 HK) was a disaster. H underperformed A by 8.4%.
- The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there – free – for all SK readers.
India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in November
- Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-September in October. There are companies with significant float changes from end-June and/or end-March.
- The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in flow from passive trackers.
- Depending on the date that the shareholding was published, there could be 20 stocks with passive inflows from global trackers while 6 could have passive outflows in November.
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