In today’s briefing:
- [Quiddity Index] Light & Wonder (LNW US/AU) US Delisting / ASX Relisting Index Event
- PonyAI and WeRide Secondary HK Trading – Weakish Demand, WeRide Did Better but Trading Lower
- Physicswallah IPO: Index Inclusion Possibilities & Timing
- Cathay (293 HK) Takes Out Qatar Airway’s Stake
- [Quiddity Index] Final Flows for the Major Global Index Rebal in November 2025: US$42bn One-Way
- Pacific Industrial (7250 JP): A Day Before Close, Effissimo Increases Its Stake Further
- BoE: Bailey Leans Over December Fence
- Japan Infrastructure Fund (9287JP): Mizuho Leasing (8425 JP)’s Tender Offer Is Light but Likely Done
- Rebound To Resilience
- CNGR A/H Listing: PHIP Update and Thoughts on A/H Premium
[Quiddity Index] Light & Wonder (LNW US/AU) US Delisting / ASX Relisting Index Event
- In August, Light & Wonder (LNW AU) / Light & Wonder (LNW US) announced that the company would give up its US listing and move to an ASX Primary Listing.
- The NASDAQ delisting has been confirmed (as expected) for 12 November. October saw significant CDI conversions. More have come in the last few days.
- This creates a significant, and interesting set of index events to track.
PonyAI and WeRide Secondary HK Trading – Weakish Demand, WeRide Did Better but Trading Lower
- Pony AI (PONY US) raised around US$860m and WeRide (WRD US) raised around US$310m in their HK Secondary offering.
- We have looked at the deal dynamics in our previous note.
- In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics for the two deals.
Physicswallah IPO: Index Inclusion Possibilities & Timing
- Physicswallah Limited (2076103D IN) is looking to list on the exchanges by selling 319.26m shares via a primary and secondary offering to raise US$392m at a valuation of US$3.5bn.
- The price band has been set at INR 103-109/share, and the issue is likely to price at the top end of the range.
- The stock will be added to the AMFI Smallcap segment and inclusion in the Nifty Smallcap 250 index is likely in March. Global index inclusion could commence in June.
Cathay (293 HK) Takes Out Qatar Airway’s Stake
- Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK) has announced plans to acquire Qatar Airways’ 9.57% stake at HK$10.8374/share, or an outlay of HK$6.96bn (~US$890mn).
- Qatar Airways acquired this stake in November 2017 at HK$13.65/share.
- Upon approval from the SFC (mainly granting a MGO waiver), Swire Pacific (19 HK)‘s stake in Cathay increases to 47.69% (from 43.12%); and Air China’s stake to 31.78% (from 28.74%).
[Quiddity Index] Final Flows for the Major Global Index Rebal in November 2025: US$42bn One-Way
- A major global index provider announced its quarterly review on 5th November 2025. The rebalance will take place on 24th November 2025.
- There were 133 changes announced. We got 115 of these 133 changes – around 86%.
- In this insight, we have presented our final flow expectations for the confirmed index changes and provide a few comments on specific situations.
Pacific Industrial (7250 JP): A Day Before Close, Effissimo Increases Its Stake Further
- On 23 October, the MBO price for Pacific Industrial (7250 JP) was increased by 42.4% to JPY2,919 per share. The offer closes on 7 November.
- Today, Effissimo further increased its stake to 8.6 million shares, representing 13.97% of outstanding shares and a 14.82% ownership ratio. The implication is that Effissimo remains unsupportive.
- The shares trade above terms, and the close is likely to be extended. Another bump is possible, but likely, the Ogawas will first try to lower the minimum acceptance condition.
BoE: Bailey Leans Over December Fence
- Another 5:4 vote split broke the BoE’s run of quarterly rate cuts. Governor Bailey is revealed to be the pivotal member, with the others worried about inflation persistence.
- Bailey endorsed market pricing and a forward-looking Taylor Rule path that includes a cut this quarter. His verbal comments imply a presumption in favour of cutting then.
- Upside news over the next two monthly release cycles would be needed to block that December cut. Resistance to cutting should only grow stronger as time passes.
Japan Infrastructure Fund (9287JP): Mizuho Leasing (8425 JP)’s Tender Offer Is Light but Likely Done
- Japan Infrastructure Fund Investment Corporation (9287 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Mizuho Leasing (8425 JP) at JPY65,000, a 21.5% premium to the last close price.
- The offer is light, as it is below book value (implying a P/NAV of 0.82x) and is below the midpoint of the IFA-adjusted book valuation range.
- However, a dispersed shareholder register with no substantial shareholders suggests that it is an uphill struggle for an activist to agitate for a bump. This is likely a done deal.
Rebound To Resilience
- The diverging services PMI and ISM resolved bullishly in October, with activity broadly back to 2024 averages. The ISM headline still looks lower because it is a composite.
- Price balances remain extremely elevated while employment’s weakness has become less acute, skewing the trade-off more hawkishly for any policymaker’s preferences.
- The broader global deterioration in PMIs and unemployment last month also recovered in the latest round of releases. These data are not screaming for any more easing.
CNGR A/H Listing: PHIP Update and Thoughts on A/H Premium
- CNGR Advanced Material (300919 CH), a Chinese battery-component producer, aims to raise up to US$700m in its H-share listing.
- CNGR is a Chinese battery-component producer and a new energy materials company.
- In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.
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