In today’s briefing:
- Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105 JP): JIP’s Takeunder Offer
- Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: TPX Add in Nov; Global Index: One in Feb; One in June
- [Quiddity Index] Oct25 Leaderboard for Nikkei 225 Mar26 Review; One In One Out Likely
- Doosan Robotics – End of Lockup Period For 34% of Outstanding Shares
- LG Electronics’ BOD Gives the Green Light for LG Electronics India IPO in 2025 – Updated Valuation
- Tata Capital IPO: Big Listing, Big Valuation, Small Float
- EA: Core Excess Revealed In Sep-25
- Metaplanet (3350) | When the Bitcoin Flywheel Stops Spinning
- [Japan M&A] Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105) – This Deal Looks Mighty Bad
- LG Chem: Announces a PRS Worth 2 Trillion Won Using Its Shares in LG Energy Solution as Base Asset
Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105 JP): JIP’s Takeunder Offer
- Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. (7105 JP) announced a pre-conditional tender offer from Japan Industrial Partners (JIP) at JPY1,537 per share, representing a 15.3% discount to the last close price.
- The offer resulted from an auction process. The offer is light in comparison to peer multiples and is below the midpoint of the target IFA DCF valuation.
- While Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP) irrevocable has a competing proposal clause, it is unlikely that a bidding war will transpire. The low required tendering rate suggests a done deal.
Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: TPX Add in Nov; Global Index: One in Feb; One in June
- Tekscend Photomask (429A JP)‘s listing has been approved by the JPX and the stock is expected to start trading on the Prime Market from 16 October.
- At the top end of the IPO range at JPY 3000/share, Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) will be valued at JPY 298bn (US$2bn).
- The stock should be added to the TOPIX INDEX at the close on 27 November while inclusion in global indices should take place in February and June.
[Quiddity Index] Oct25 Leaderboard for Nikkei 225 Mar26 Review; One In One Out Likely
- Today we saw the culmination of the ridiculously wrong-way Nikkei 225 Sep25 rebalance. Shift Inc (3697 JP) looked like a classic deletion, not addition.
- 93.3% of the observation period has now passed, which means we can look at the March 2026 Periodic Review with a fair bit of accuracy.
- It is likely to be the runner-ups in the Sep25 review from the Consumer Goods sector, though the second-runner-up ADD needs a stock split to have any chance. More below.
Doosan Robotics – End of Lockup Period For 34% of Outstanding Shares
- There is an end of a lock-up period for 22.1 million shares (34% of outstanding shares) for Doosan Robotics (454910 KS) starting 5 October 2025.
- This could potentially result in additional selling by insiders which could negatively impact its share price in the coming weeks.
- Doosan Robotics’ valuation multiples remain extremely high. We remain BEARISH on Doosan Robotics.
LG Electronics’ BOD Gives the Green Light for LG Electronics India IPO in 2025 – Updated Valuation
- LG Electronics’ BOD finally approved a plan to sell a 15% stake in LG Electronics India in an IPO to be completed in 2025.
- According to local media, LG Electronics India is now valued at about US$13 billion which is higher than LG Electronics’ market cap of US$8.8 billion.
- Our base case valuation of LG Electronics India is implied market cap of 1,280 billion INR or US$14.4 billion.
Tata Capital IPO: Big Listing, Big Valuation, Small Float
- Tata Capital Limited (TATACAP IN) is looking to list on the exchanges by selling up to INR155bn (US$1.75bn) of stock at a valuation of around INR 1,384bn (US$15.6bn).
- The stock will not get Fast Entry to either of the global indices. The earliest inclusion in a global index should take place in June 2026.
- The stock should be added to the Large Cap segment in the AMFI Classification in January and to the Nifty Next 50 Index in March.
EA: Core Excess Revealed In Sep-25
- Inflation’s break above target to 2.23%, within 1bp of our forecast, came as past energy price falls dropped out to reveal the more resilient underlying pressures.
- Small upside surprises in large countries, like Germany and Italy, were balanced in number and contribution by larger surprises in small ones, like Greece and Estonia.
- We expect less negative payback in October and January, preventing our profile from languishing below the target through 2026, like the consensus view does.
Metaplanet (3350) | When the Bitcoin Flywheel Stops Spinning
- Equity-Funded Bitcoin accumulation stalls, as Metaplanet’s share price and mNAV collapse, closing the window for reflexive BTC yield growth
- BIG trading desk delivers outsized returns, but sustainability remains uncertain amid falling Bitcoin volatility and rising funding obligations.
- Phase II pivots toward platform ambitions, signalling a shift from accumulation to architecture, and potentially, from treasury to Bitcoin bank.
[Japan M&A] Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105) – This Deal Looks Mighty Bad
- JIP and MitHeavy have announced a takeunder to buy out MitHeavy sub Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. (7105 JP) at a weighted average price 42% lower than Target Advisor DCF range midpoint.
- No/Minimal transparency. A sales process interrupted by Trump tariffs, leaving one low-ball bidder. And the sellers goes ahead with it BUT gets to reinvest on the back end. You don’t.
- The Board “supports” the Tender Offer, but leaves it to the opinion of the shareholders as to whether they tender. MitHeavy has 64.4% already so that basically gets done. But…
LG Chem: Announces a PRS Worth 2 Trillion Won Using Its Shares in LG Energy Solution as Base Asset
- LG Chem announced that it plans to complete a price return swap worth about 2 trillion won (US$1.4 billion) using its stake in LG Energy Solution as the base asset.
- This 2 trillion won PRS is likely to have a slightly positive impact on LG Chem and slightly negative impact on LG Energy Solution.
- Our NAV valuation of LG Chem suggests implied NAV per share of 369,187 won, which is 31% higher than current levels.
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