In today’s briefing:
- Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Capping Pushes Trade to Over US$10bn
- Who Owns Nidec (6594 JP) And How Much Could Be For Sale?
- Metaplanet Placement: A Look at Other Treasury Play Issuances and Performance
- DigiCo Infrastructure REIT (DGT AU) And HealthCo REIT (HCW AU): Passive Flows
- Unicharm Indonesia : Value Proposition
- [Japan CorpGov] TSE “Mgmt Conscious” Reports (Sep25), TSE Presents Interesting Feedback
- HEW: Pauses On And Off
- BoE Survey Says Inflation Persists
- Peak Rare Earths (PEK AU): Shenghe Bumps And Declares Terms Final
- Merger and Acquisition Updates: TaskUs, scPharmaceuticals, Apiam, Plymouth, Mayne Pharma, Banxa, and DallasNews
Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Capping Pushes Trade to Over US$10bn
- The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) will change benchmark from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the close on 19 September.
- The differences in the constituents between the two indices should result in 8 adds and 25 deletes. Estimated one-way turnover is 22.9% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$10.2bn.
- The forecast adds have underperformed the forecast deletes since the last Insight that highlighted the big valuation gap that had opened up since the announcement of the benchmark switch.
Who Owns Nidec (6594 JP) And How Much Could Be For Sale?
- Nidec Corp (6594 JP) announced in June they were extending the release of their yuho for three months because of an internal investigation into NIDEC FIR INTERNATIONAL (Italy).
- Yesterday, the company announced it would establish a Third-Party Investigative Committee based on suspected improper accounting at the sub of a Chinese sub 1yr ago and parent management knowledge.
- There’s been a lot of work done. Now the committee digs in. The announcement smacks of IMS issues. Today the marketcap fell 22% or nearly ¥800bn on ¥200mm of accounting.
Metaplanet Placement: A Look at Other Treasury Play Issuances and Performance
- Metaplanet (3350 JP) is looking to raise around US$1bn from a primary placement.
- The deal is a relatively small one, representing 4.8 days of the stock’s three month ADV, despite being 22.8% of total shares outstanding.
- In this note, we look at Metaplanet and its peers.
DigiCo Infrastructure REIT (DGT AU) And HealthCo REIT (HCW AU): Passive Flows
- DigiCo Infrastructure REIT (DGT AU) will be added to a global sector index at the close on 19 September while HealthCo REIT (HCW AU) will be deleted.
- Estimated passive buying in DigiCo Infrastructure REIT (DGT AU) is US$32m while the passive selling in HealthCo REIT (HCW AU) is estimated to be US$7m.
- Shorts have increased in both stocks. There could be short covering in DigiCo Infrastructure REIT followed by new shorts, while shorts could look to cover HealthCo REIT as passives sell.
Unicharm Indonesia : Value Proposition
- Unicharm Indonesia looks very attractive on the basis os excess cash on its books and cash flow it generates. Trades at <1x EV?EBDITA
- Its number 1 diaper and feminine pads company which is facing earnings headwinds
- Any plans by the management to return cash, consumer demand recovery can lead to rerating in the stock.
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[Japan CorpGov] TSE “Mgmt Conscious” Reports (Sep25), TSE Presents Interesting Feedback
- TSE-Listed companies are asked to file “Management Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” awareness reports/policies. Many have. Some are still working on it. And policies change, and CGR reports are updated.
- 216 new CGRs filed in Aug-2025 (after 783 in July, 1,389 in June). Our tools show every report, links to every document, and a diff-file tool. Input name, see changes.
- The JPX Council of Experts met on 2 Sep (and 9 July before that). The parent-sub changes are slow to come. 2 Sep docs may be worth reading in parts.
HEW: Pauses On And Off
- Another disappointing payroll release provides the fundamental cover needed for the Fed to end its pause with a rate cut on 17 September without being too political.
- The BoE is starting its own pause, and if it goes a quarter without cutting, historically, it’s not resumed the cycle. Its DMP survey confirmed inflation’s persistent problem.
- Another upside inflation surprise seems set to keep the ECB on hold amid record low unemployment. We also expect it to preserve its view that policy is in a good place.
BoE Survey Says Inflation Persists
- CFOs are telling the BoE that they plan to keep raising prices by more than 3% in 2026. The BoE should take notice, as this survey’s previous warnings have proven accurate.
- Expected increases reflect the passthrough of further wage increases beyond a pace consistent with the target. They exceed even our already hawkish forecasts.
- The BoE is unlikely to realise the sharp drop in wage growth it expects by year’s end, without a shock to break the current regime, bolstering our call for no more rate cuts.
Peak Rare Earths (PEK AU): Shenghe Bumps And Declares Terms Final
- On the 15th May, Peak Rare Earths (PEK AU) entered into a non-binding Offer, by way of a Scheme, with Shenghe Resources (600392 CH) @A$0.389/share, a punchy 199% to undisturbed.
- Shenghe holds 19.86% in Peak, and has offtake rights to 100% of the rare earth production from the 84%-held Ngualla project in Tanzania.
- The Scheme Booklet was registered with ASIC on the 11th August with a 16th September Scheme Meeting. Shenghe has now bumped terms to A$0.443. Declared final. Scheme Meeting remains unchanged.
Merger and Acquisition Updates: TaskUs, scPharmaceuticals, Apiam, Plymouth, Mayne Pharma, Banxa, and DallasNews
- TaskUs privatization bid at $16.50/share faces opposition; market anticipates improved offer before September 10 shareholder vote.
- Apiam Animal Health receives A$0.88/share takeover offer; largest shareholder supports, board likely to recommend upon binding agreement.
- Banxa shareholders approve OSL Group acquisition; regulatory consents pending, closing expected Q4’25–Q1’26, spread at 21%.
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