In today’s briefing:
- Sony Financial (8729 JP) Spinoff from Sony Group (6758 JP): Potential Index Flows
- [Japan Event] Sony Financial Spin-Off Trades Monday – Fina(Ncia)L Thoughts
- Trading Strategy of Zijin Gold on the First Day of IPO
- Sony Financial Spin-Off: Valuation Discount Meets Capital Discipline
- Curator’s Cut: BABA Hedges, Substantive Spin-Offs & Japanese Activist Situations
- [Quiddity Index] SP500/600 Dec25 Rebal: One Name (Always Bridesmaid Never the Bride) Stands Out
- Spotted a Quietly Emerging Passive Flow Trade: Long DB Ins, Short Samsung Life in December
- Top 10 Korean Stock Picks and Key Catalysts Bi-Weekly (26 September to 10 October 2025)
- Merger Arb Mondays (29 Sep) – Soft99, Ashimori, Mandom, Paramount, OneConnect, Dongfeng, Spindex
- HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 26 Sep 2025); BIG Single Stock Trading Again, Big Net, But Hs Fall
Sony Financial (8729 JP) Spinoff from Sony Group (6758 JP): Potential Index Flows
- The ex-date for Sony Financial Group (8729 JP)‘s spinoff from Sony Corp (6758 JP) is 29 September. There will be passive flows at the close on the day.
- There will be no selling from the TOPIX Index and Fglobal trackers. There will be selling from Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) trackers and potentially from Mglobal trackers.
- Sony Financial Group (8729 JP) has announced a buyback of up to 1bn shares (13.99% of shares out) over the next year and that will support the stock.
[Japan Event] Sony Financial Spin-Off Trades Monday – Fina(Ncia)L Thoughts
- Today is the last day of trading for Sony Corp (6758 JP) with Sony Financial Group (8729 JP) spin-off rights. SFGI starts trading separately on Monday 29 Sep.
- The reference price is ¥150/share. It will likely stay in all major indices except Nikkei 225, and it likely needs low ¥160s to stay in M _ _ _.
- The estimated Div Yield is higher on SFGI than peers by a fair ways, and looks to grow, and there is a big buyback to come. I like it.
Trading Strategy of Zijin Gold on the First Day of IPO
- Zijin Gold IPO will start trading on 30 September. Zijin Gold is aiming to raise US$3.2 billion (HK$24.98 billion) from its IPO, offering 349 million shares at HK$71.59 each.
- Our base case valuation of Zijin Gold is HK$124.7 per share (74.2% higher than the IPO price). We expect a sharply higher pop on the first day of trading.
- If its share price appreciates more than 30-50% or more, we think it is prudent to take some profits off the table (at least 25%-30% of total investment).
Sony Financial Spin-Off: Valuation Discount Meets Capital Discipline
- Spin-Off unlocks scale: Sony Financial (~¥23 tn assets) carved out from Sony, with ~¥250 bn market cap and ~¥200 bn free float.
- Balance-Sheet heavy, rate-sensitive: Core life insurance business (~80–85% of profits) supported by strong solvency (ESR 189%).
- Catalysts: Forced selling post-listing, earnings delivery, 40–50% payout policy, and likely TOPIX inclusion within 6–12 months.
Curator’s Cut: BABA Hedges, Substantive Spin-Offs & Japanese Activist Situations
- Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,000+ Insights published over the past two weeks on Smartkarma
- In this cut, we review strategies to hedge Alibaba (9988 HK) exposure, examine signficant Asian spin-offs, and explore engaging activist situations in Japan
- Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next
[Quiddity Index] SP500/600 Dec25 Rebal: One Name (Always Bridesmaid Never the Bride) Stands Out
- The SP 500 Index (you can guess) tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
- In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the December 2025 index rebal event.
- We expect two regular changes in December 2025. There are also multiple live M&A events which are likely to trigger intra-review index changes.
Spotted a Quietly Emerging Passive Flow Trade: Long DB Ins, Short Samsung Life in December
- Samsung Life replaced DB Insurance at 5% vs 4.3% weight on June 13, triggering 0.2x DTV inflow/0.5x outflow; Samsung +1.79%, DB -4.97%, long-short net ~7%.
- For December, DB Insurance likely reclaims Samsung Life’s slot; with higher ETF AUM, expect ~+1.0x DTV inflow for DB, ~-0.6/-0.7x DTV outflow for Samsung.
- Still under the radar locally; expect big ETF rebal day moves. With June’s precedent, consider starting positions a day or two early before desk trades.
Top 10 Korean Stock Picks and Key Catalysts Bi-Weekly (26 September to 10 October 2025)
- In this insight, we provide the top 10 stock picks and key catalysts in the Korean stock market for the next two weeks (26 September to 10 October 2025).
- Top 10 picks in this bi-weekly include S&T Dynamics, Samsung Electronics, KT&G, Samsung Life Insurance, Hana Financial, Hyundai Elevator, SK Inc, Lotte Tour Development, Naver, and Douzone Bizon.
- There have been some signs of shipbuilding and shipping services related stocks (such as HMM, SK Oceanplant, and HJ Shipbuilding) experiencing some weakness in the past couple of weeks.
Merger Arb Mondays (29 Sep) – Soft99, Ashimori, Mandom, Paramount, OneConnect, Dongfeng, Spindex
- I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
- Highest spreads: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Smart Share Global (EM US), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), Soft99 Corp (4464 JP), Joy City Property (207 HK).
- Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Humm Group (HUM AU), Mandom Corp (4917 JP), Paramount Bed Holdings Co Lt (7817 JP).
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 26 Sep 2025); BIG Single Stock Trading Again, Big Net, But Hs Fall
- Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes just over US$19bn a day this past 5-day week. Big. Quite decent net buying flows too though the market fell.
- The recommended name last week was short Alibaba (9988 HK) was +4.65% on the week despite HK being down across the board.
- The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there for all SK readers.
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Analytics and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
