In today’s briefing:
- Toyota Industries (6201) – SURPRISE! It’s a TOYODA Takeover Proposal (Good Governance May Not Win)
- FnGuide Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Flow in Large Cap Stocks
- Horizon Robotics (9660 HK): Global Index Inclusion After April & October Lock-Ups
- Samsung SDI Rights Trade Period & Short Ban: Quick Clarity
- Aisin (7259) – Executing the Capital Policy Side of Its MTMP – Big ¥120bn (8.8%) Buyback
- Soundwill Holdings (878 HK): Wide Spread Ahead of the 23 May Scheme Vote
- DN Solutions IPO Officially Withdrawn: Background and Key Takeaways
- Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2025: End Apr 2025 Ranks
- Pre-IPO Green Tea Group (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention
- Aviva’s £3.7B Acquisition: Key Index Changes
Toyota Industries (6201) – SURPRISE! It’s a TOYODA Takeover Proposal (Good Governance May Not Win)
- On Friday after the close, media reports surfaced that Toyota Motor (7203 JP) Group chairman and founding family member had put forth a take-private proposal to Toyota Industries (6201 JP).
- The number quoted was ¥6trln market cap (most) or EV (FT), financed by personal funds, 3 megabanks, and reportedly some group companies.
- ¥6trln market cap would be +50%. ¥6trln EV +16%. Simultaneously shocking but somehow not surprising. Opportunistic, and surprisingly elegant as a family/group/cultural solution. More below.
FnGuide Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Flow in Large Cap Stocks
- The Mirae Asset Tiger Top 10 ETF (292150 KS) tracks the FnGuide Top 10 Index and has an AUM of around US$660m.
- We currently forecast two potential changes at the next rebalance in June – both are high probability changes.
- The trade has performed well historically with positive performance till implementation followed by reversion post implementation in most cases.
Horizon Robotics (9660 HK): Global Index Inclusion After April & October Lock-Ups
- Free float is expected to increase from 10% to 70% on 24 April for Global-F and on 24 October for Global-M. The delayed increase is due to undisclosed shareholders.
- Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) is forecasted to be added to global all-world in June 2025 following the 6-month lock-up expiry of most shareholders.
- Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) is forecasted to be added to global standard in February 2026 following the 12-month lock-up expiry of undisclosed shareholders.
Samsung SDI Rights Trade Period & Short Ban: Quick Clarity
- Samsung SDI kept the trading window open until May 12, not May 9 — so stock rights will trade for a total of six sessions.
- If all shorts are closed by May 16, we can still subscribe. Spot hedging isn’t allowed, but outright shorts for pricing plays are fine.
- Entry cost is effectively capped at 146,200 won, and it’s still very unlikely the final price exceeds that, so using it as the rights entry cap still makes sense.
Aisin (7259) – Executing the Capital Policy Side of Its MTMP – Big ¥120bn (8.8%) Buyback
- Last Friday during market hours, Toyota Group member Aisin (7259 JP) announced earnings, guidance, its MTMP progress update, and a buyback.
- Earnings were OK, all things considered. Guidance was disappointing, but tariff impact is real. The buyback headlines are huge (17%); reality is about half that given the stock price.
- If they execute via TN-3 near-term, it just sets up the next one, but they may do 2/3 TN=3 and 1/3 market. There may be Toyota Industries factors involved.
Soundwill Holdings (878 HK): Wide Spread Ahead of the 23 May Scheme Vote
- Soundwill Holdings (878 HK)’s IFA opines that the Foo family’s HK$8.50 offer is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 23 May.
- Key conditions include approval by at least 75% of independent shareholders (<10% of independent shareholders’ rejection) and a headcount test. No shareholder holds a blocking stake.
- The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges. The vote risk is low. At the current price and for a June 11 payment, the gross/annualised spread is 4.3%/44.0%.
DN Solutions IPO Officially Withdrawn: Background and Key Takeaways
- Book built weak, even under ₩65,000. Both local and foreign demand was super soft. Company floated printing at the bottom, but floor didn’t hold. Now, the deal is officially dead.
- The real overhang was valuation; the IPO priced too high for the growth story. Without a strong momentum trade, DN Solutions couldn’t ride the wave, and sentiment soured fast.
- They’re not waiting too long — likely aiming for a H2 comeback. KRX might skip the full review, and they may focus on domestic investors this time without an OC.
Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2025: End Apr 2025 Ranks
- JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted capped index composed of 400 constituents.
- The annual index review takes place in August every year. We look at the latest rankings of potential ADDs/DELs every month.
- Below is a look at the rankings of ~45 potential ADDs/DELs for the JPX-Nikkei 400 August 2025 rebalance based on trading data as of end-April 2025.
Pre-IPO Green Tea Group (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention
- The decline in Green Tea’s performance in 2024 cannot be solely attributed to external factors such as economic downturn and the decline in consumption. There are deeper reasons behind it.
- The growth is mainly contributed by delivery service. However, commission fee is high and average spending per order is lower than dine-in services.So delivery service has limited contribution to profits.
- The aggressive expansion of restaurants may further dilute the performance of individual restaurant. We shared our three-year forecast.Valuation of Green Tea could be lower than Xiaocaiyuan and the industry average
Aviva’s £3.7B Acquisition: Key Index Changes
- Aviva’s (AV/ LN) £3.7B acquisition of Direct Line Insurance Group Pl (DLG LN) combines two major insurers, with £125M in expected annual synergies by year three.
- Direct Line Insurance Group Pl (DLG LN) shareholders to receive 0.2867 new Aviva (AV/ LN) shares, 129.7p in cash, and up to 5p in pre-completion dividends per share held.
- The acquisition is expected to impact major UK and European indices on an intra-quarter basis.
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