In today’s briefing:
- Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance: 5 Adds and US$8.8bn Trade; Zijin Gold Added
- SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: TPX Add in Jan; Global Index: One in May; One in June
- TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index Rebalance: US$7bn Trade over the Next Week
- UK: Christmas CPI Present For Doves
- Trust Bank Singapore: Banking on Sustainable Growth (Initiation)
- ANE Cayman (9956 HK): Shareholder Vote On 9th Jan. No Mention Of CDH In Latest Doc
- Local Desks Target Year-End Dividend Boost Trading Setup
- Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls IPO Lockup – US$800m Cornerstone Release
- Shanghai Forest Cabin PHIP Update: Strong Topline and Margins in 1H25
- EA: Eating A Disinflationary Revision
Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance: 5 Adds and US$8.8bn Trade; Zijin Gold Added
- There are 5 additions for the VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) in December. Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is a surprise add (as are some of the others).
- Estimated one-way turnover is 15.2% and that leads to a round-trip trade of US$8.8bn. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade from passive trackers.
- The MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index has just passed its earlier highs, but a lot of the adds have broken out and are trading much higher than their prior highs.
SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: TPX Add in Jan; Global Index: One in May; One in June
- SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)‘s listing has been approved by the JPX and the stock is expected to start trading on the Prime Market from 17 December.
- At the indicated IPO price of ¥1,440/share, the IPO will raise up to ¥367.6bn (US$2.38bn) and value SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) up to ¥1,290bn (US$8.34bn).
- The stock should be added to the TOPIX INDEX at the close on 29 January while inclusion in global indices should take place in May and June.
TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index Rebalance: US$7bn Trade over the Next Week
- There are 8 adds and 8 deletes for the TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index in December. The TIP Taiwan Select High Dividend ETF has an AUM of US$13bn.
- The ETF has started trading the stocks and is expected to continue trading for the next 7 trading days.
- There are a few surprises and those stocks could outperform peers over the rest of the trading period.
UK: Christmas CPI Present For Doves
- UK inflation’s 31bps slowing to 3.15% went far further than expected, with significance raised by the substantial extent and the breadth of downside across divisions.
- However, the news was more concentrated at a component level, leaving the median impulse annualising to 2.3%. We still see underlying pressures driving persistent excess.
- The Governor sought confirmation of disinflation before cutting rates again, so this surprise should secure that move in December, without any commitment to do more.
Trust Bank Singapore: Banking on Sustainable Growth (Initiation)
- Operational Scale & Market Status: Trust Bank has rapidly matured into Singapore’s fourth-largest retail bank, securing over 1 million customers (approx. 20% market penetration) in just over two years.
- Financial Performance Snapshot: The bank has reached a critical financial inflection point in FY2024, reporting a 148% surge in revenue (to S$96.9 million) while keeping operating expenses nearly flat (+3.8%).
- Product & Ecosystem Integration: Currently, the bank drives high engagement through its “phygital” integration with FairPrice, resulting in active users averaging 21 transactions per month.
ANE Cayman (9956 HK): Shareholder Vote On 9th Jan. No Mention Of CDH In Latest Doc
- Back on the 28th October, ANE Cayman (9956 HK), a road freight transportation play, announced an Offer from Centurium Partners, a pre-IPO investor, Temasek, and Singapore-based asset manager True Light.
- The Scheme Doc is now out, with a Scheme Meeting on the 9th Jan 2026, and expected payment on the 16th Feb. The IFA (Anglo Chinese) says “fair & reasonable“.
- Noticeably absent from this Doc is CDH, believed to be in control of ~18% of shares out. Given precedents with similar fact patterns, this is probably one deal to avoid.
Local Desks Target Year-End Dividend Boost Trading Setup
- Names outside the new tax regime may hike year-end payouts, with gov’t push boosting odds despite fuzzy timing, drawing local desk interest.
- With timing murky, local desks are targeting high-yield names, 25–40% FY25 payout, and ~10%+ DPS growth as prime candidates for year-end dividend hikes ahead of AGMs.
- Nine first-tier names (25–40% payout, <10% DPS growth, 3%+ yield) are prime dividend plays; five second-tier names (20–25% payout) need monitoring for potential Q4 expense tweaks.
Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls IPO Lockup – US$800m Cornerstone Release
- Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls (2050 HK), raised around US$1.4bn in its H-share listing. The lockup on its cornerstone investors is set to expire soon.
- ZSIC is a market leader in a number of products, with commanding market share both domestically and globally.
- In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.
Shanghai Forest Cabin PHIP Update: Strong Topline and Margins in 1H25
- Shanghai Forest Cabin Biological-Tech (SFCBT HK) is looking to raise US$140m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
- SFC is the leader among China’s premium domestic skincare brands with a focus on anti-wrinkle and firming skincare market.
- We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous note. In this note, we will undertake a PHIP update.
EA: Eating A Disinflationary Revision
- Another downward food price revision cut HICP inflation back to 2.1% in November, but the effect was only 1.6bp, and services inflation was marginally stronger than before.
- Service prices are not converging on levels consistent with the ECB’s target, and many underlying metrics are too high. The median is a notable exception, broadly below 2%.
- The ECB’s “good place” assessment should be unaffected by any of this, nor the base effects driving things slightly below the target in January. It should sound neutral.
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