Equity Bottom-Up Archives | Page 24 of 222 | Smartkarma

2Q25 small 2% beat. Products revenue (iPhone, Mac, etc) up 3% YoY. Services up 12%. Jun-25: low- to mid-single digit revenue growth YoY (inline), 100bps hit to margins or US$900m.
Good effort to articulate supply chain reshuffle for products sold in US: iPhone from India, the rest from Vietnam. Beyond June, no quantification of impact on costs and demand.
Despite low 5-8% EPS growth, the stock is expensive due to steady Services growth and large cash returns to shareholders. Trading at 29x FY25 EPS, 27x FY26.

If I Wanted to Bet on Humanoids, I’d Buy Meta.

By Fallacy Alarm

The commercialization of general purpose humanoid robots could be the most disruptive innovation that the next few decades have in store for us.
It would be a new computing platform that would by far surpass everything that we have seen in personal and mobile computing.
AI would be liberated from cyberspace to real space. Instead of shifting bits and bytes around, it would be moving physical objects.

JSW Steel’s Tumble: Untangling the Bhushan Power & Steel Supreme Court Setback

By Nimish Maheshwari

JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN)‘s resolution plan for Bhushan Power & Steel was rejected by the Supreme Court, ordering its liquidation.
The rejection undermines JSW Steel’s capacity expansion and investment plans, leading to significant financial and strategic setbacks.
The ruling highlights the importance of strict adherence to IBC provisions and raises concerns over the predictability of large asset resolutions.

Source Rock Royalties : Consistent Returns Backed by Strong Fundamentals

By Atrium Research

Source Rock is an oil and gas royalty company with interests in lands across Saskatchewan and Alberta.
SRR has grown average daily production at a 16% CAGR since 2021, resulting in adjusted EBITDA growing at a 22% CAGR.
Source Rock offers a >9% dividend yield which has grown at 2.5% annually since initiating the dividend in 2014.

Amazon 1Q’25 Update

By MBI Deep Dives

While Amazon’s 3P business usually grows faster than 1P, both 1P and 3P retail business grew at similar rate in 1Q’25.
Ads revenue continued its momentum at 19% growth YoY which was higher than both Google and Meta.
After growing at ~19% YoY for the last three consecutive quarters, AWS growth decelerated this quarter to 17%.

Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP): Rexulti Drives 1Q25 Result; Label Expansion And Acquisition Augur Well

By Tina Banerjee

Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP) reported 12% YoY growth in revenue in 1Q25, as pharmaceuticals sales grew backed by a 35% YoY growth in Rexulti revenue to ¥75.7B.
The company reiterated 2025 guidance. Higher costs to dent margins with subdued sales of Lonsurf, Jynarque.
Indication expansion of Rexulti and Araris acquisition augur well for the company from a mid to long term perspective.

Hyperscale Capex Is Maintained or Increased No Cuts or Postponement Capacity Constrain at AMZN GOOG

What did hyperscalers say on Capex in March conf calls? Amazon: nothing. Google: maintained. Meta: increase. Microsoft: maintained. No Capex cuts or postponement.
At the opposite, Amazon and Google mention capacity constraints, revenues could be higher with more capacity. All firms mention that AI is a critical building block of future growth.
Financial statements show 1) improving operating margins, 2) higher capex but still higher free cash flow. Positive for NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT) .

Gilead Sciences: Cell Therapy Adoption & Expansion to Strengthen Its Competitive Position n Its Domain!

Gilead Sciences delivered a mixed performance in their latest financial results, reflecting both strengths and challenges across their portfolio.
The company reported overall product sales of $6.6 billion for the first quarter, a 1% decline year-over-year, primarily attributable to a significant decrease in sales of Veklury, a COVID-19 treatment, which was down 45%.
The core business, however, excluding Veklury, demonstrated growth with a 4% increase, driven largely by their HIV segment and liver disease treatments.

Procter & Gamble (P&G) Looking To Turbocharge Retail Reach Through Channel Diversification But Will It Work?

Procter & Gamble’s recent earnings results present a mixed picture of achievements and challenges.
The company’s organic sales for the third quarter grew by 1%, which indicates modest growth.
This increase was broadly underpinned by pricing strategies that added one percentage point to organic sales growth, while product volume and mix remained consistent with the prior year.

Whirlpool Corporation: Will The North American Market Dynamics Reflect Its Capability To Adapt To & Capitalize On Market Changes?

Whirlpool Corporation has demonstrated a mixed financial performance in its latest earnings report, reflecting strategic advantages and challenges in the current macroeconomic environment.
Organic growth of 2% marked a modest improvement, driven largely by strong performance in its Smart Design Asia Global and Major Domestic Appliance Asia sectors.
The company achieved an EBIT margin of nearly 6%, reflecting successful pricing strategies and cost reductions, which helped weather macroeconomic headwinds.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

May 02

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Hainan Meilan Intl Airport (357 HK): Possible Mandatory General Offer and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

Hainan Meilan Intl Airport (357 HK): Possible Mandatory General Offer
SONY (6758) | Going into Earnings
Meta 1Q’25 Update
Intel Foundry. Lowering 18A Expectations, Moving Away From Copy Exactly? What’s Going On?
Qualcomm 2Q25 (March 25): Boring and Cheap
Ebay’s Qoo10 Surges on K-Style Boom
Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update
[Luckin (LKNCY US, BUY, TP US$39) TP Change]: Coffee Bean Price Hike Hurts Margin but Boosts Sales
Hakuto Co Ltd (7433 JP): Full-year FY03/25 report update
Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM) Q1 2025: Steady Pricing Led Growth

Hainan Meilan Intl Airport (357 HK): Possible Mandatory General Offer

By Osbert Tang, CFA

The change in controlling shareholder at Hainan Meilan International Airport (357 HK) will trigger a general offer. At HK$10.62, we do not see the proposed offer price attractive.
The proposed price is only at 10.6% premium to the latest closing price, and equals to 1.15x 12-month forward P/B, way lower than the 5-year peak of 5.1x.
The new parent Hainan Airport Infrastructure (600515 CH) can generate synergy, and the turn of Hainan into a Free Trade Port will attract visitors, boosting the long-term outlook.

SONY (6758) | Going into Earnings

Content-Driven growth: Strong performance in music and gaming supports Sony’s shift toward high-margin content, insulating it from trade and macro headwinds.
Upcoming catalysts: Spin-off of Sony Financial and potential restructuring could unlock value and address the long-standing conglomerate discount.
Attractive valuation: Trading at 14x EV/EBIT with defensive sector exposure, Sony remains undervalued relative to global peers despite YTD outperformance.

Meta 1Q’25 Update

By MBI Deep Dives

Digital advertising has surpassed the days of “Mad Men” a while ago and thanks to AI, it seems even better positioned to unlock new markets and more opportunities.
Meta is, of course, one of the companies leading this march.
Here are my highlights from today’s call. Daily Active People (DAP) across its Family of Apps (FOA) accelerated to 80 mn QoQ in 1Q’25.

Intel Foundry. Lowering 18A Expectations, Moving Away From Copy Exactly? What’s Going On?

By William Keating

On April 29, Intel hosted the latest in a series of “Direct Connect” events, this time focusing on the company’s Foundry progress and plans
They talked about “ups and downs” with 18A, seeming to lower expectations for the process node which former CEO Gelsinger “bet the company on”. Lots of emphasis on 14A instead.
Foundry chief Naga Chandrasekaran casually announced that the company was “walking away” from Copy Exactly and “democratizing innovation” at the fabs to fix yield, reliability, predictability and cost challenges. Wow!

Qualcomm 2Q25 (March 25): Boring and Cheap

Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US) 2Q25 (March-25) spot inline with expectations, 4Q guidance inline with expectations. Revenue growth is slowing down sharply in June. Consensus expects further slowdown in 2H25.
QCOM is losing iPhone modem, Android is not growing in units but chips become more expensive with AI, new revenue streams (AI PC, Auto, Industrial IoT) are not well understood.
The result is Consensus forecasting basically no EPS growth in FY26-27 and the stock is trading at 12x EPS, almost -1 standard deviation below average PEx

Ebay’s Qoo10 Surges on K-Style Boom

By Michael Causton

Qoo10 is tiny in comparison to Amazon, Rakuten and Yahoo but it punches well above its weight by specialisation.
The online mall’s focus on Korean cosmetics and lifestyle has given it a depth of loyalty among young women that was once the preserve of Zozo.
Along with its other platform Move, Ebay Japan has built a solid presence in the Japanese market which looks set to continue to expand.

Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

In FY03/25, the company achieved revenue of JPY2.43tn, operating profit of JPY697.3bn, and net income of JPY544.1bn.
For FY03/26, the company projects revenue of JPY2.6tn, operating profit of JPY727.0bn, and net income of JPY566.0bn.
The company plans to increase R&D expenses to JPY300.0bn in FY03/26, up from JPY250.0bn in FY03/25.

[Luckin (LKNCY US, BUY, TP US$39) TP Change]: Coffee Bean Price Hike Hurts Margin but Boosts Sales

By Eric Wen

Luckin reported C1Q25 revenue in-line/6% vs. our estimate/consensus, and non-GAAP operating profit 9%/75% higher than our estimate/consensus, thanks to warmer weather and constrained marketing spending;
Despite Luckin pre-emptive lock-ins, rising coffee bean price shall still take its toll as Luckin’s biggest rival Starbucks should be equally capable of managing the commodity price risk.
We keep Luckin as BUY rating but cut TP to US$39.

Hakuto Co Ltd (7433 JP): Full-year FY03/25 report update

FY03/25 results: Sales JPY183.1bn (+0.6% YoY), Operating profit JPY7.9bn (+3.6% YoY), Net income JPY5.1bn (-0.9% YoY).
FY03/25 forecast: Sales JPY186.0bn (+1.6% YoY), Operating profit JPY6.0bn (-24.2% YoY), Net income JPY4.9bn (-4.5% YoY).
Hakuto’s medium-term plan targets sustainable growth by FY03/29, with Vision 2030 and Hakuto 2028 initiatives.

Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM) Q1 2025: Steady Pricing Led Growth

By Sameer Taneja

Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM) reported steady growth in Q1 2025, with revenues and profits increasing by 7.6% and 10.8% YoY. Volume/Pricing grew 1%/6.6% YoY as company offset excise-duty increases.
EBITDA margins were maintained at 16.2%, while the company saw a massive increase in cash and investments to 16.2 bn pesos from 12.8 bn pesos, led by working capital inflows.
Trading at 10x PE with 20% of the market cap in cash and investments, and demonstrating pricing power/profit growth of 10-15% CAGR, this is a name to explore.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

May 01

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Gensol Engineering Scandal: Our AI System Saw This Coming and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

Gensol Engineering Scandal: Our AI System Saw This Coming
Anicom (8715 JP)
Seasonal Play: FDC Ltd- Electral’s Summer Surge and Expanding into Growing Categories
SDA: SunCar reports 2024 financial and operating results which showed strong revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth. The company continues to secure multiple business agreements and partnerships.
WRKR Ltd – Building the platform for strong revenue growth
Mediatek 1Q25 6% Beat, Growth Accelerating in 2Q, Large Revenue Opportunity for Data Center ASIC
Adani Energy Solutions Ltd. Q4 FY25 Update: Robust Growth Driven by T&D Expansion
MediaTek 1Q25 Earnings: AI Momentum Drives Strength, But 2H Visibility Remains Murky Due to Tariffs
Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP): Guidance Revised Upward for FY25 Driven by North America
Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) – Indonesia’s Leading Logistics and Mobility Ecosystem

Gensol Engineering Scandal: Our AI System Saw This Coming

By Mark Jolley

Indian regulator barred Gensol Engineering’s founders for alleged fund diversion, causing a 90% stock plunge
Unusual growth and poor governance were flagged in Gensol’s accounts by Transparently’s AI system
Transparently’s “F” risk rating would have likely steered investors away from Gensol.

Anicom (8715 JP)

By Michael Fritzell

Japanese pet insurance company with 40-50% market share thanks to its OTC settlement system and a network of pet shop/veterinary clinic partners
The stock trades at around 13x current-year earnings, a modest multiple given the secular growth that’s ahead of it. The pet/human population ratio is low. Pet insurance is still unusual.
Well-Regarded investor Hikari Tsushin just took a 5.2% position in the company, highlighting the value in the company at the current 1.5x book.

Seasonal Play: FDC Ltd- Electral’s Summer Surge and Expanding into Growing Categories

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

FDC Limited is a pioneer in India’s pharmaceutical landscape, especially in Oral Rehydration Salts (ORS) and specialized formulations.
The company’s flagship brand, Electral, continues to be a major revenue contributor, despite margin pressures from regulatory price caps.
FDC’s strategic capex in ophthalmic, ear, and nasal drops business, coupled with its domestic and international presence, positions it strongly for sustained growth.

SDA: SunCar reports 2024 financial and operating results which showed strong revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth. The company continues to secure multiple business agreements and partnerships.

By Zacks Small Cap Research

SunCar Technology Group ((NASDAQ: SDA) is a leading Chinese cloud-based provider of digital enterprise auto services and auto eInsurance services in China.
The company offers one-stop, fully digital, on-demand automotive service systems to help enterprise clients build up their customer base and serve their end customers (auto owners).
The company has grown revenues rapidly in recent years, which we expect to continue in the near-to-midterm.

WRKR Ltd – Building the platform for strong revenue growth

Wrkr Ltd (ASX:WRK) offers compliance solutions for Australian superannuation contributions and payroll including member onboarding, super payments, messaging and employee validation.
WRK’s Q3 FY25 activities report demonstrates a continued balance of cost management (up just 3% against Q3 FY24) against lumpy cash receipts (down 6% against Q3 FY24 but up 39% on Q2 FY25) amidst continued milestone/project work, which should drive revenue in FY26.
This quarter saw the receipt of a $328k R&D tax credit but also a record capitalised IP spend of $985k as new product development and systems integration continues.

Mediatek 1Q25 6% Beat, Growth Accelerating in 2Q, Large Revenue Opportunity for Data Center ASIC

Mediatek beats in 1Q, good guidance for 2Q, but close to Consensus. Several positives in 2025: flagship smartphone gains, smartphone AI upgrades, strong WiFi and Connectivity growth, progress in Auto.
How large is the “sizable revenue” opportunity of data center custom ASICs from 2026? Management sounds increasingly positive / confident. The stock valuations reflect this.
The stock trades at 18.5x 2025 EPS, 15.5x 2026 EPS, not extravagant but on the high-end. If you have the stock, keep it. If you don’t, TSMC looks more interesting.

Adani Energy Solutions Ltd. Q4 FY25 Update: Robust Growth Driven by T&D Expansion

Adani Energy Solutions (ADANIT IN)’s Q4 FY25 PAT jumped 87% YoY to INR 714 crore, driven by strong transmission execution and distribution growth.
The company’s record order book of INR 59,936 crore and aggressive smart metering ramp-up signal sustained growth ahead.
AESL is strengthening its position across transmission, distribution, and metering, reinforcing its multi-year growth visibility.

MediaTek 1Q25 Earnings: AI Momentum Drives Strength, But 2H Visibility Remains Murky Due to Tariffs

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

MediaTek beat 1Q25 EPS expectations as Smart Edge and mobile segments delivered strong sequential growth; flagship SoC traction supports improved ASP mix.
AI remains central to strategy: NVIDIA partnership progressing — NT$1bn AI ASIC revenue targeted for 2026.
Tariff-Driven macro caution clouds 2H outlook, but we maintain Structural Long view — AI, auto, and premium mobile SoCs drive long-term opportunity.

Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP): Guidance Revised Upward for FY25 Driven by North America

By Tina Banerjee

Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP) revised revenue guidance for FY25 to ¥399B from previous ¥381B. New guidance represents 27% YoY growth.
This comes on the back of higher than expected sales in North American segment, which contributed 61% sales in 9MFY25.
Operating profit guidance have been revised to ¥43.2B from ¥30B on controlled cost and higher sales.

Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) – Indonesia’s Leading Logistics and Mobility Ecosystem

By Angus Mackintosh

Adi Sarana Armada has seen its end-to-end logistics ecosystem under Cargoshare take over as its biggest revenue driver, with car rentals, vehicle auction, and used cars also showing solid growth.
All divisions booked revenue growth, with the auction business seeing the strongest performance, but the logistics saw the biggest turnaround, booking a profit in FY2024 versus a loss in FY2023.
Cargoshare is increasingly deploying solutions-based logistics, especially for FMCG companies, which are increasingly outsourcing logistics. ASSA’s mobility ecosystem continues to thrive through synergies, with captive car supply from ASSA Rent.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Apr 30

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Is Huawei New AI Chip Is Bad for Nvidia? New US Export Licensing Is the Real Issue (Part 2) and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

Is Huawei New AI Chip Is Bad for Nvidia? New US Export Licensing Is the Real Issue (Part 2)
Asian Equities: Overvalued, Over-Leveraged, Low Growth – a Different Look
Huawei New AI Processor Ascend 910C and the Long History Behind It (Part 1)
Samsung Electronics: Global Funds Hit Rock Bottom
United Microelectronics: Heavy Exodus
Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ) – Assuringly Diverse Protein Provider
ICBC: Signs of a Turnaround in Fund Positioning
Strong Volumes Offset by Declining Margins and Capital Efficiency at UltraTech
Asia Real Estate Tracker (29-Apr-2025): Link Points Tokyo expansion with Nuveen executive hire
[Earnings Preview] BP’s Outlook Dims with Lower Hydrocarbon Output and Softer Trading Results

Is Huawei New AI Chip Is Bad for Nvidia? New US Export Licensing Is the Real Issue (Part 2)

Apparently, on news of this new Huawei chip in WSJ, Nvidia’s stock decline -2% yesterday. That’s strange – not new news, the real issue is new US export license requirements.
Nvidia’s problem is not Huawei, but US restrictions on selling GPU to China. Nvidia announced writing off US$5.5bn on 9 April 2025 (for H20). AMD estimates US$800m (for MI308).
Assume that Nvidia and AMD will not sell any AI chips to China. Same for HBM memory.

Asian Equities: Overvalued, Over-Leveraged, Low Growth – a Different Look

By Manishi Raychaudhuri

We identified overvalued, over-leveraged, low growth stocks on EPS growth, high PEG, low ROE, high P/BV, high leverage. Clients opined that EBITDA is more stable earnings parameter for such stocks.
Based on clients’ feedback we now screen the stocks using EBITDA growth as the earnings growth parameter and EV as the corresponding valuation parameter.
Our screen yields 30 stocks – 20 from Japan (largely property/REIT) and 10 from HK/China. 7 stocks are common to the EPS-PE and EBITDA-EV lists – mostly from Japanese property.

Huawei New AI Processor Ascend 910C and the Long History Behind It (Part 1)

China was ahead of the US in AI semiconductor and applications in 2015-20. Huawei had a complete AI processor and software platform. Losing access to TSMC froze Huawei’s progress.
Most likely, Huawei new AI processor Ascend 910C is made by SMIC on 6nm. Power Efficiency of Ascend 910C is poor versus the latest Nvidia GPU, but similar to N-2.
Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK) 7-6nm and access to HBM memory are major limiting factor to the chip volumes and performance.

Samsung Electronics: Global Funds Hit Rock Bottom

By Steven Holden

Global equity fund ownership in Samsung Electronics has dropped to the bottom of its 10-year range.
The percentage of global funds invested has fallen from 32.6% to 23.5% over the past 12-months.
Key Growth investors from Schroders to Templeton exit the stock, leaving an investor base largely comprised of Value oriented funds.

United Microelectronics: Heavy Exodus

By Steven Holden

Collapse in EM fund positioning as ownership levels approach record lows.
Over the past six months, there has been a heavy sell-side bias, with Fisher, BNP, and Quilter among those exiting the stock.
UMC falls to the 13th most widely owned company in the Semiconductor sector.

Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ) – Assuringly Diverse Protein Provider

By Angus Mackintosh

Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ) booked a strong start to the year, with sales growing +12% YoY, but dairy was down while premium foods drove higher revenues.
The company continues to drive growth through general trade and Miss Cimory, with plans to continue increasing its reach through more affordable products in both dairy and premium consumer foods.
Cisarua Mountain Dairy‘s strategy to shift the emphasis toward home consumption for consumer foods and an increasing emphasis on affordable products will help to underpin long-term sustainable growth. Valuations attractive.

ICBC: Signs of a Turnaround in Fund Positioning

By Steven Holden

Consistent declines in fund ownership in ICBC finally hit a floor.
Over the past six-months, 8 new positions — led by Goldman Sachs and Heptagon — have outpaced 3 closures, with 29 buyers versus 18 sellers.
ICBC is the 6th most widely owned stock in the China & HK Financials sector, ahead of Bank Of China Ltd but behind China Merchants and China Construction Bank.

Strong Volumes Offset by Declining Margins and Capital Efficiency at UltraTech

By Rahul Jain

FY25 EBITDA growth was primarily volume-driven, with EBITDA/ton declining to Rs988 due to flat realizations and initial dilution from acquisitions.
UltraTech is investing Rs1,800 crore to enter the cables and wires segment, targeting December 2026 commissioning and leveraging its existing retail and B2B networks.
At Rs12,000 per share, the stock trades at 51–53x FY26E EPS, supported by expectations of sustained volume growth and operational efficiency gains.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (29-Apr-2025): Link Points Tokyo expansion with Nuveen executive hire

By Asia Real Estate Tracker

Link has appointed a former Nuveen executive to lead its expansion into Japan, signaling the company’s commitment to growing its presence in the region.
Amara Chairman is spearheading a $392 million bid to privatize a Singapore hotel group, demonstrating a growing trend of investments in the hospitality industry.
ANREV reports a significant decline of over 50% in global real estate capital raising from its peak in 2022, highlighting challenges in the current market environment.

[Earnings Preview] BP’s Outlook Dims with Lower Hydrocarbon Output and Softer Trading Results

By Suhas Reddy

BP’s Q4 revenue and EPS are projected to decline by 7.4% YoY and 43.3%, respectively, due to lower hydrocarbon output, weaker gas marketing, and subdued trading results.
BP expects oil production earnings to remain flat sequentially, with refining margins adding USD 100-300 million to Q1 earnings, while oil trading performance is anticipated to remain unchanged.
The company expects net debt to increase by USD 4 billion from the previous quarter’s USD 23 billion, citing seasonal inventory builds and timing of payments.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Apr 29

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: IPO Lock-In Expiry: These 6 Companies Need Closer Look! and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

IPO Lock-In Expiry: These 6 Companies Need Closer Look!
Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC ADR Short Interest New Highs; Chunghwa Telecom Short Spike
Geely (175 HK): To Be Only Comparable Competitor to BYD in 1Q25
Indirect Beneficiaries of the Smash Hit Movie “King of Kings” In the Korean Stock Market
Ramkrishna Forgings Ltd: Missing Inventory Exposes the Audit Blind Spot
Ather Energy IPO- Pioneer, But Falling Behind
Is IBM the Dark Horse of AI? $6 Billion in Bookings Signal a New Era!
Lam Research Is Dominating Advanced Packaging & NAND Upgrades But Does This Create A Prime Buy Opportunity?
Reliance: Betting Big on New Energy
Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Delta Thai Rally Looks Overdone; Taiwan Remains Better Value

IPO Lock-In Expiry: These 6 Companies Need Closer Look!

By Nimish Maheshwari

India is set to witness INR 4.02 trillion worth of Pre-IPO shares becoming tradeable by June 2025, lead to huge selling pressure among various IPO stocks.
We identified 6 Companies where lock-in is about to expire and analyzed their current status in terms of their business and industry environment.
Some fundamentally good companies also provide opportunities at a good price due to a fall because of selling pressure in these companies after lock-in expiry.

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC ADR Short Interest New Highs; Chunghwa Telecom Short Spike

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC: +19.5% Premium; Short Interest in ADRs Jumps to New Highs; Open Fresh Short of Spread at 20% or Higher
ASE: +3.8% Premium; Wait for Higher Premium Before Opening New Short
CHT: -1.0% Discount; Consider Going Long the Spread; ADR Short Interest Rises to New Highs

Geely (175 HK): To Be Only Comparable Competitor to BYD in 1Q25

By Ming Lu

Geely’s deliveries reached 46% of BYD in 1Q25, while the number was 23% in 2024.
The delivery growth rate accelerated since December 2024 and reached 54% YoY in March 2025.
We believe, even without production capacity expansion, BEV deliveries can grow significantly YoY in 2Q25 and 3Q25.

Indirect Beneficiaries of the Smash Hit Movie “King of Kings” In the Korean Stock Market

In this insight, we discuss the indirect beneficiaries of the global hit movie “King of Kings” in the Korean stock market.
The King of Kings is a 3D animation movie produced by a Korean company called Mofac Studio (unlisted). This film made $45mn in N. American box office in 10 days.
Dexter Studios, Wysiwyg Studios, and GiantStep (listed competitors to Mofac Studios) are up on average 17% in the past one month.

Ramkrishna Forgings Ltd: Missing Inventory Exposes the Audit Blind Spot

By Nitin Mangal

On April 26, 2025, Ramkrishna Forgings (RMKF IN) (RKFL) disclosed that during the annual physical verification of inventory for the financial year ending March 31, 2025, there were discrepancies observed.
The company has appointed independent external agencies to dig-out the findings, but the fact that management expects a 4-5% erosion of net-worth has caught the attention of many.
While this exposes the accounting and governance, the bigger picture is that it also exposes a big audit blind spot relating to inventory discrepancy threshold of 10%.

Ather Energy IPO- Pioneer, But Falling Behind

By Nitin Mangal

Ather Energy (1207922D IN) kickstarts its INR 29.8 bn worth IPO this week, comprising of fresh issue worth INR 26.3 bn and 11.1 mn OFS valued at INR 3.5 bn.
Ather, a pioneer, was the first entity to launch a smart scooter back in 2018. The company currently is 4th largest EV player with a market share of 10.7%.
Although it shows strong R&D profile and a positive warranty trend, Ather continues its heavy cash burn and has exorbitant wages, loss of market share, increased discounting, etc.

Is IBM the Dark Horse of AI? $6 Billion in Bookings Signal a New Era!

International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) delivered solid performance in its first-quarter 2025 results, exhibiting a combination of strengths and challenges as it continues to pursue its strategic focus on hybrid cloud and artificial intelligence (AI).
IBM reported a total revenue of $14.5 billion for the quarter, marking a 2% increase at constant currency from the previous year.
This growth was primarily driven by robust performance in the Software segment which rose by 9% thanks to advancements across Red Hat, Automation, Data, and Transaction Processing.

Lam Research Is Dominating Advanced Packaging & NAND Upgrades But Does This Create A Prime Buy Opportunity?

Lam Research reported a strong performance in the March 2025 quarter, exceeding the midpoint of guidance across key financial metrics such as revenue, gross margin, operating margin, and EPS.
The company achieved record foundry revenues, attributing much of this success to robust execution and strategic investments in manufacturing and operations, leading to improved gross margins post-Novellus merger.
Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Reliance: Betting Big on New Energy

By Rahul Jain

Reliance plans to invest Rs40,000–45,000 crore (30% of total capex) into its New Energy business over FY25–FY28.
Solar PV manufacturing (10 GW), Green Hydrogen (electrolyzers + hydrogen production), Energy Storage (30 GWh batteries), Biogas (CBG plants), and Carbon Capture initiatives.
New Energy could contribute 8–10% of Reliance’s total EBITDA over the next 10 years as projects mature and commercial operations ramp up.

Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Delta Thai Rally Looks Overdone; Taiwan Remains Better Value

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

Delta Thailand’s rally looks sentiment-driven, not fundamental: 1Q25 results were decent but not a major beat.
Valuation gap widened to unjustifiable levels: Delta Thailand trades at 52x trailing PER vs. Delta Taiwan at 25x.
Delta Taiwan remains the structurally stronger,cheaper exposure to the group’s long-term growth themes.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Apr 28

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Intel Q125 Earnings. Outlook Disappoints As LBT Shows Senior Executives The Door and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

Intel Q125 Earnings. Outlook Disappoints As LBT Shows Senior Executives The Door
Singapore Retail Sector: Will It Be Impacted by Improved Connectivity with Malaysia?
Keyence (6861 JP): A Beneficiary of Rising Interest Rates
Bright Smart (1428 HK): To Sell or Not to Sell?
GPIL: Mining to Recycling
China New Higher Education (2001 HK): Stays Cheap at 1.7x PER and 0.3x P/B
Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK) 25Q1 Results – Concerns Behind and the Valuation Outlook
Japan Pure Chemical (4973 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update
Kokuyo Co Ltd (7984 JP): Q1 FY12/25 flash update

Intel Q125 Earnings. Outlook Disappoints As LBT Shows Senior Executives The Door

By William Keating

Intel reported Q125 revenues of $12.7 billion, down 0.4% YoY, down 11% QoQ but still $500 million above the guided midpoint, precisely the same beat as in the prior quarter.
Looking ahead, Intel forecasted current quarter revenues of $11.8 billion at the midpoint, this time extending the range from $1 billion in the prior quarter to $1.2 billion
LBT is in the process of undertaking sweeping changes to his ELT, flattening its structure, taking on multiple additional reports and showing many senior executives the door. That’s good.

Singapore Retail Sector: Will It Be Impacted by Improved Connectivity with Malaysia?

By Devi Subhakesan

The upcoming Johor Bahru-Singapore Rapid Transit System and the ease of cross-border movements could impact Singapore’s retail sector as more consumers may choose to spend across the border.
DFI Retail CEO cited this as rationale for exiting Singapore based grocery retail business under Cold Storage and Giant’s brands. Sheng Siong group said it will carefully monitor this development.
Singapore retail prices for branded consumer discretionary and staples are between 30%-50% higher than in Malaysia. With greater ease of commute and shipping, this price differential may not be sustainable.

Keyence (6861 JP): A Beneficiary of Rising Interest Rates

By Scott Foster

Keyence stands to benefit from a rising return on its large holdings of cash and securities, which are also available for investment and higher dividends.
The company’s engineering-service business model should keep gross and operating margins high while it continues to expand overseas.
Projected valuations at the low end of their 5-year ranges. Recession and abrupt appreciation of the yen are the primary risks.

Bright Smart (1428 HK): To Sell or Not to Sell?

By Osbert Tang, CFA

The offer price of HK$3.28 by Ant Financial is attractive – 2.9x P/B and 8.3x PER, both on 12-month forward basis. It is also appealing relative to peers.
Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK)‘s massive outperformance against the HSI showed its strong marketing and execution capabilities. Ant Financial will bring many synergies to it.
Risk-Averse investors may take this opportunity to cash out, but we are on the long-term bull camp and prefer to hold for further upside.

GPIL: Mining to Recycling

By Rahul Jain

GPIL operates integrated iron ore mining, pellet, and steel facilities with captive power assets in Chhattisgarh.
Acquired 51% stake in Jammu Pigments to enter non-ferrous recycling.
Focused on mining and pellet capacity expansion, with selective growth in recycling and smaller steel projects.

China New Higher Education (2001 HK): Stays Cheap at 1.7x PER and 0.3x P/B

By Osbert Tang, CFA

China New Higher Education (2001 HK)‘s gearing (including contract liabilities) has come down to 61.2% in 1H25, from 69.9% in FY24 and 84.1% in FY23 – an encouraging trend.
Net profit grew 8.6%, even faster than the full-year consensus forecast of 3.5% growth. There are multiple drivers that support its medium-term outlook.
CNHE trades on 1.7x PER and 0.3x P/B, but the FY25 ROE is a solid 16.6%. Should the payout ratio remain unchanged, its yield will reach 28.4%.

Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK) 25Q1 Results – Concerns Behind and the Valuation Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

PAGD achieved a dual increase in revenue and profit in 25Q1, which was mainly driven by the revenue from F-end business and B-end corporate health management business (up 43% YoY).
We always question PAGD’s capability of expanding new customers and business externally, apart from relying on the resource support of Ping A Group.This makes PAGD difficult to match high valuations.
Our forecast for 2025 revenue is RMB5.1 billion.If based on P/S of 3x, market value is RMB15.3 billion. Market value of RMB24 billion could be the peak of PAGD’s valuation

Japan Pure Chemical (4973 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

Revenue in FY03/25 grew 10.4% YoY, with operating profit increasing 41.8% YoY, driven by generative AI demand.
Net income surged 188.1% YoY due to gains on the sale of shares, despite slowing automotive sales.
JPC anticipates steady demand for AI-related applications and expects revenue growth in FY03/26 despite higher expenses.

Kokuyo Co Ltd (7984 JP): Q1 FY12/25 flash update

Revenue increased by 3.5% YoY to JPY99.5bn, driven by demand in the Furniture business for office relocations.
Operating profit rose by 14.4% YoY to JPY13.5bn, with a 1.6pp increase in GPM due to price revisions.
Net income attributable to owners of the parent decreased by 16.4% YoY, despite increases in operating and recurring profits.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Apr 27

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Renesas 1Q25: Cheap Stock That’s Bottoming Out and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

Renesas 1Q25: Cheap Stock That’s Bottoming Out
Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | March and Q125 Demand Growth Weak Vs Trend (April 2025)
Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) – Good Reason for Optimism
BYD (1211 HK): Rev up by 36% in 1Q25, Scale to Bring 60% Upside
Ramkrishna Forgings: Inventory Discrepancies Raise Concern Over Governance
Sage Group Plc: Initiation of Coverage- Network Services and Automation Expansion Can Fuel A Revenue Surge Across Regions!
Steel Dynamics: An Insight Into Its Shareholder Value & Strategic Capital Allocation!
Intuitive Surgical: Procedure Growth & Market Expansion to Strengthen Its Market Position!
NEXT Plc: Initiation of Coverage- Is the Zalando Alliance The Hidden Catalyst for International Growth?
China Healthcare Weekly (Apr.27)- Flaws Behind BeiGene’s Breakeven, Fosun Increased Stake in Henlius

Renesas 1Q25: Cheap Stock That’s Bottoming Out

Revenues are still declining by ~teens% YoY but margins shows signs of improvements as end-demand improves and utilization is low.
Renesas doesn’t have an inventory problem and increasing revenues will lead to higher utilization and higher margins.
As Renesas is showing signs of a bottom, the stock is very cheap, trading at -2 standard deviations or 11x 2025 EPS, 9x 2026 EPS.

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | March and Q125 Demand Growth Weak Vs Trend (April 2025)

By Daniel Hellberg

March demand growth improved vs weak February, but Q125 showed clear slowdown vs trend
Relatively strong demand growth for outbound travel is no longer lifting airline load factors
Near-Term, we no longer view Chinese travel as attractive, as stocks appear to lack catalysts

Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) – Good Reason for Optimism

By Angus Mackintosh

Sumber Alfaria Trijaya booked a slower-than-expected finish to FY2024, with some compression to margins, but mainly due to the temporary impact of investment in the business and higher promotions.
The company has seen a strong start to FY2025, with SSSG growing at a faster pace than FY2024, with a strong performance over the run-up to Ramadan.
Alfamart will continues to expand its store network in 2025, with Lawson under AMRT to bring future synergy benefits. Valuations look attractive with a more positive outlook for earnings.

BYD (1211 HK): Rev up by 36% in 1Q25, Scale to Bring 60% Upside

By Ming Lu

In 1Q25, BYD’s revenue increased by 36% YoY and sales volume increased by 60% YoY.
We believe BYD’s scale advantage will help cashflow and the competition in the coming market concentration.
The P/E band suggests an upside of 59% for the end of 2025.

Ramkrishna Forgings: Inventory Discrepancies Raise Concern Over Governance

By Nimish Maheshwari

Ramkrishna Forgings (RK Forgings) recently reported discrepancies in its inventory during the annual physical verification for FY 2024.
The company has engaged independent external agencies to conduct a joint fact-finding study, aiming to maintain transparency and accountability.
Estimates suggest an adverse impact of 4-5% on the company’s net worth. While the impact on overall inventory is almost 10% of the total inventory, amounting to INR 120 crore

Sage Group Plc: Initiation of Coverage- Network Services and Automation Expansion Can Fuel A Revenue Surge Across Regions!

Sage Group PLC recently reported a successful year, demonstrating notable growth and a solid financial performance.
The company’s annual recurring revenue (ARR) increased for the third consecutive year, with a 11% rise to GBP 2.3 billion.
This growth was balanced between new and existing customers, reflecting effective customer retention strategies and upsell accomplishments.

Steel Dynamics: An Insight Into Its Shareholder Value & Strategic Capital Allocation!

Steel Dynamics, Inc. delivered a solid performance in the first quarter of 2025, demonstrating the company’s operational and financial stability amidst a challenging market environment.
The company reported a net income of $217 million or $1.44 per diluted share, supported by adjusted EBITDA of $448 million.
Total revenue rose to $4.4 billion, showing a 13% increase from the previous quarter, largely due to record steel shipments.

Intuitive Surgical: Procedure Growth & Market Expansion to Strengthen Its Market Position!

Intuitive Surgical Inc.’s recent earnings reveal a mixed performance with both strengths and challenges.
Positively, the company reported strong operational outcomes in the first quarter of 2025.
Da Vinci procedures saw a substantial 17% growth, driven predominantly by robust performances in general surgery across the US and certain international markets, such as India and Korea.

NEXT Plc: Initiation of Coverage- Is the Zalando Alliance The Hidden Catalyst for International Growth?

NEXT, a prominent UK-based retail company, has reported its latest financial results, demonstrating both strengths and challenges in its operations.
This summary captures the core aspects of NEXT’s performance, the strategic decisions made, and the roadmap ahead as outlined in their recent earnings call.
Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

China Healthcare Weekly (Apr.27)- Flaws Behind BeiGene’s Breakeven, Fosun Increased Stake in Henlius

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

The rise of innovative drugs in China is actually in line with the interests of large pharmaceutical companies and MNCs. The only ones get “hurt” are small overseas startups/small biotech.
BeiGene’s turnaround from losses to profits has entered the countdown.However, investors may not be happy with the net profit margin brought by single revenue driver Brukinsa based on our calculation.
Fosun has increased its stake in Henlius by acquiring additional shares at HK$24.6/share, bringing its total ownership to 63.43%.This sends positive signals. A falling stock price is a buying opportunity.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Apr 26

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Top 10 Korean Stock Picks and Key Catalysts Bi-Weekly (Starting 28 April 2025) and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

Top 10 Korean Stock Picks and Key Catalysts Bi-Weekly (Starting 28 April 2025)
Kyoto Financial Group (TSE:5844) – Positive Shift in C-Suite Outlook
STMicroelectronics: Initiation of Coverage- An Insight Into Its Cost-Saving Initiatives & Financial Resilience!
Synopsys: Harnessing Complexity
Safran: Initiation of Coverage- Will the LEAP Engine Ramp-Up Reverse Its Stock Slide?
Vinci: Initiation of Coverage- From Data Centers to Airports—Is This the Most Overlooked Infrastructure Powerhouse in Europe?
Capgemini: Initiation of Coverage- Strategic Acquisitions & 4 Pivotal Growth Levers!
Legrand S.A.: Initiation of Coverage- How Are They Executing Geographical Diversification To Seize Growth Opportunities!
STMicro: Ugly but Mngt Says 1Q25 Is the Bottom. Restructuring Has to Start, Horrendous Inventories.
Waaree Energies Pre IPO Lock-In Opens: What’s The Way Ahead

Top 10 Korean Stock Picks and Key Catalysts Bi-Weekly (Starting 28 April 2025)

In this insight, we provide the top 10 stocks picks and key catalysts in the Korean stock market for the two weeks starting 28 April.
Our top 10 picks in Korea were up on average 5.1% (from 11 to 25 April), outperforming KOSPI which is up 4.7% in the same period.
Our top 10 picks in this bi-weekly include Hanwha Systems, Hyundai Elevator, HD Hyundai, Hyundai Rotem, SK Telecom, Samyang Foods, KT&G, Posco, SK Inc, and Korea Investment Holdings.

Kyoto Financial Group (TSE:5844) – Positive Shift in C-Suite Outlook

By Victor Galliano

Kyoto Financial’s president has hinted at increasing disposals in strategic equity holdings; the prior target was a JPY100bn reduction in holdings by March 2029, now there is talk of JPY200-300bn
We estimate Kyoto Financial’s equity holdings relative to market cap at 140%+, well above its peer banks; yet, until very recently, the president had been against meaningfully reducing equity holdings
The president’s change of view leads us to upgrade Kyoto Financial to a buy; the change in outlook means that there is real potential to extract value for shareholders

STMicroelectronics: Initiation of Coverage- An Insight Into Its Cost-Saving Initiatives & Financial Resilience!

STMicroelectronics reported its financial results for the fourth quarter and the fiscal year 2024, showcasing notable operational challenges within a volatile market environment.
The company experienced significant revenue declines amidst broader industry downturns particularly in its Industrial and Automotive segments.
For the fourth quarter, STMicroelectronics saw a year-over-year decline in net revenues by 22.4%, landing at $3.32 billion, but managed a slight sequential increase of 2.2%.

Synopsys: Harnessing Complexity

By MBI Deep Dives

Chip design has long been a paradoxical craft.
On one hand, engineers must trust sophisticated software to help them craft circuits of mind-boggling complexity; on the other, they maintain a healthy skepticism, knowing a single flaw can doom a chip.
The old mantra “trust, but verify” could well have been coined for this process.

Safran: Initiation of Coverage- Will the LEAP Engine Ramp-Up Reverse Its Stock Slide?

Safran’s financial results show a strong performance in 2024, with record highs in revenue, profit, and cash flows.
Revenue increased by 18% to €27.3 billion, largely driven by a 25% growth in civil aftermarket activities.
Operating margin improved by 150 basis points to 15.1%, supported by operational excellence and strong aftermarket demand.

Vinci: Initiation of Coverage- From Data Centers to Airports—Is This the Most Overlooked Infrastructure Powerhouse in Europe?

Vinci, a global leader in concessions, construction, and energy, reported its financial performance for the fiscal year 2024, showcasing both achievements and challenges that frame its investment outlook.
Positively, Vinci demonstrated robust revenue growth, achieving a 4% overall increase to reach record levels despite economic headwinds.
This growth stemmed from significant contributions across its diverse business segments—Concessions, Energy, and Construction.

Capgemini: Initiation of Coverage- Strategic Acquisitions & 4 Pivotal Growth Levers!

Capgemini’s full-year 2024 results reflect a mixed performance against a backdrop of continued market challenges.
The company’s revenues saw a decline of 2% at constant currency to EUR 22,096 million, evidencing the broader economic pressures and restrained client spending, especially in sectors like Manufacturing and regions such as France.
This drop was somewhat mitigated by resilience in segments such as Financial Services and Public Sector, and geographic improvement in North America, the U.K., Asia Pacific, and Latin America.

Legrand S.A.: Initiation of Coverage- How Are They Executing Geographical Diversification To Seize Growth Opportunities!

Legrand, a French multinational company specializing in electrical and digital building infrastructure, concluded 2024 with noteworthy results, achieving its stated financial targets.
The company reported a combined sales growth of 3.9%, driven by organic expansion and acquisitions, despite facing headwinds such as currency fluctuations and reduced contributions from Russia.
Most prominently, Legrand’s data center segment and strategic M&A activities contributed significantly to its performance.

STMicro: Ugly but Mngt Says 1Q25 Is the Bottom. Restructuring Has to Start, Horrendous Inventories.

Very poor 1Q25, operating profit close to zero. 2Q a bit better with lower revenue decline, but OP still close to zero.
Management claims 1Q is the bottom for revenues, its possible, but 2 large risks: restructuring costs and very high inventories.
Consensus expects a slow recovery into 2026, the stock looks cheap at 11x 2026 EPS. However, given the firm’s track record and the risks mentioned, lets wait 1 more quarter.

Waaree Energies Pre IPO Lock-In Opens: What’s The Way Ahead

Waaree Energies posted exceptional Q4 and FY25 results, reporting a 72.6% YoY increase in EBITDA and a robust order book of INR 47,000 crores.
The company continues to ramp up its manufacturing capacities, with a focus on solar cells, modules, and energy storage, positioning itself as a leader in India’s solar transition.
Strong operational performance, strategic investments in green energy, and a solid order book enhance confidence in Waaree’s growth prospects for FY26 and beyond.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Apr 25

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Pop Mart (9992 HK): Eye-Popping Growth. Is It the Next Pokémon for Kidults? and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

Pop Mart (9992 HK): Eye-Popping Growth. Is It the Next Pokémon for Kidults?
The Beat Ideas: Park Hotels: Serving Long-Term Value
Update- SAMHI Hotels: Strategic Partnership with GIC
UMC 1Q25 Is the Bottom, Consensus Is Low but the Stock at Average Valuations
Texas Instruments: Surprisingly Good 1Q25, Good 2Q Guidance. End-Markets Are Back to YoY Growth.
Nidec (6594) | Chasing Trends to Fiscal Discipline
SK Hynix Earnings Highlights Strong AI Dependence and Tariff Concerns
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG US): Strong 1Q Result; Tariffs to Impact Margin
Kaiser Reef Ltd – Becoming a Bigger East Coast Gold Producer
Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

Pop Mart (9992 HK): Eye-Popping Growth. Is It the Next Pokémon for Kidults?

By Devi Subhakesan

Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK) ’s stock has nearly doubled in three months, fueled by surging revenue and the breakout popularity of its Labubu dolls.
Driven by strong international expansion and solid omni-channel demand in its home market, Pop Mart reported over 165% revenue growth in 1Q2025 compared to the same period last year.
Investors remain split on whether Pop Mart’s unconventional products and marketing are driven by lasting fandom or just a passing trend.

The Beat Ideas: Park Hotels: Serving Long-Term Value

Apeejay Surrendra Park Hotel (PARK IN), With a sharp pivot post-IPO, it has deleveraged, scaled Flurys to 100 outlets, and launched ARR-led palace properties, all while staying asset-light and cash-smart.
F&B now contributes nearly half of revenues, ARRs are climbing, and legacy land is being monetised to fund INR 500 crore of capex without debt.
Earlier seen as a traditional hotel chain, Park now to be looked as a brand with strong visibility, smart capital use, and fresh retail momentum.

Update- SAMHI Hotels: Strategic Partnership with GIC

SAMHI Hotels (SAMHI IN) has entered into a strategic partnership with GIC, a global institutional investor, to establish a joint venture platform for upscale and higher hotel assets in India.
This transaction will significantly reduce SAMHI’s debt, enhance its financial flexibility, and provide access to up to $300 million in future capital for further expansion in high-demand upscale hotel sector.
The partnership with GIC strengthens SAMHI’s growth outlook, boosts profitability through debt reduction, and positions the company to capitalize on the rapidly expanding upscale hospitality market in India.

UMC 1Q25 Is the Bottom, Consensus Is Low but the Stock at Average Valuations

1Q miss on non-ops and it’s the bottom for margins. Strong 2Q guidance but very low visibility into 2H: tariff uncertainty.
The JV with Intel for 12nm is proceeding well and demand is strong for Made in US 12nm. Some upside here for 2027
Consensus is probably a tad too low but the stock trading at average PEx ~12x. No arbitrage here.

Texas Instruments: Surprisingly Good 1Q25, Good 2Q Guidance. End-Markets Are Back to YoY Growth.

Demand for Auto & Industrial Semis was weak in 2024, Semi inventories remain high. But TXN beats 1Q guidance handsomely, 2Q is above expectations. TXN is back to YoY growth.
Critically, the Industrial market is recovering rapidly, Auto is back to modest growth. Management has some concerns that there could be re-stocking ahead of US import tariffs.
Consensus is too low but the stock is not cheap, has deflated from bubble levels but still not cheap.

Nidec (6594) | Chasing Trends to Fiscal Discipline

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

Nidec beat Q4 expectations but offered muted FY3/26 guidance, with flat sales and modest profit growth amid macro and tariff uncertainty.
New CEO Kishida shifts focus from top-line ambition to margin discipline, targeting ¥150bn in cost cuts over three years.
Once a high-growth play, Nidec now trades at value multiples — 1.5x book — offering a more grounded path to shareholder returns.

SK Hynix Earnings Highlights Strong AI Dependence and Tariff Concerns

By Jim Handy

SK hynix announced their second-highest revenue and operating profit for the first quarter of 2025
Much of the company’s performance is the result of its first-mover advantage and excellent execution in the HBM market
Two issues threaten the company: AI growth may stall, and tariff changes could interfere with the company’s global supply chain

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG US): Strong 1Q Result; Tariffs to Impact Margin

By Tina Banerjee

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG US) revenue grew 19% YoY to $2.3B in 1Q25. Procedures volume grew ~17% YoY, which boosted instruments and accessories revenue.
The company placed 367 da Vinci surgical systems, compared with 313 in 1Q24. It included 147 da Vinci 5 systems, compared with 8 in the same period last year.
Intuitive has raised the procedure growth guidance range from 13–15% to 15–17%, while trimming down gross margin to the range 65–66.5% from 67–68%, due to tariffs.

Kaiser Reef Ltd – Becoming a Bigger East Coast Gold Producer

Kaiser Reef Ltd (ASX:KAU) is undergoing a transformation as it acquires the Henty Gold mine from Catalyst Minerals (ASX:CYL) which should drive a step change in the production profile of the company from <12kozpa to 37kozpa (proforma) with scope to increase to 50kozpa+ in the medium term.
Post the funding package completed alongside the acquisition, KAU has $27.2m in cash which can support the incremental investments into its mining operations to achieve the stated production targets.
Post the Henty Gold acquisition, Kaiser Reef Ltd (ASX:KAU) has the potential to become a 50kozpa+ producer over the medium term with 30kozpa+ from the Henty mine and 20kozpa+ from the A1 Gold mine.

Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

Revenue increased by 21.4% YoY to JPY29.7bn, with operating profit rising 53.1% YoY to JPY12.5bn.
Capital gains reached JPY12.7bn, a 60.0% YoY increase, driven by IPO-related share sales and unlisted shares.
Total assets under management stood at JPY458.4bn, with JPY198.5bn subject to management fees as of end-March 2025.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Apr 24

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Lee Jae-Myung’s Campaign Pledge – Cancellation of Treasury Shares and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

Lee Jae-Myung’s Campaign Pledge – Cancellation of Treasury Shares
Jafco (8595.T) Announces a Big Buyback and a Change in Business Strategy- The Market Likes It!
Fanuc (6954) | Growth Flickers, Visibility Dims
Shimano (7309) | Coasting, Not Sprinting
Fujifilm: Bio CDMO – A Success in the Making
Lee Jae-Myung’s Policies Likely to Negatively Impact Korean Banks
Timee: Recent Setback in Share Price Offers an Attractive Entry Point
Talos Energy Inc: Valuation Discount/Estimate Update
UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 2Q25 Guidance Beat; Tariff Affection Unknown; No GF Merger Plan Right Now.
Asia Real Estate Tracker (23-Apr-2025): Sino’s Robert Ng, kids tagged under SG foreign interference law

Lee Jae-Myung’s Campaign Pledge – Cancellation of Treasury Shares

Lee Jae-Myung (who is leading in most election polls) has mentioned cancellation of treasury shares as one of the key campaign pledges to improve the corporate governance in Korea.
If the cancellation of these shares becomes mandatory, the SK Group and Lotte Group will be most affected.
We provide a list of 21 stocks in KOSPI200 that have the highest ratios for treasury shares/total outstanding shares. These stocks could receive more attention in the next several months.

Jafco (8595.T) Announces a Big Buyback and a Change in Business Strategy- The Market Likes It!

By Rikki Malik

Jafco divests overseas operations to focus on domestic capital markets
The company continues to focus on shareholder returns in a meaningful way
Domestic venture capital returns exceed overseas returns historically and the future looks bright

Fanuc (6954) | Growth Flickers, Visibility Dims

Fanuc returns to revenue growth, driven by robomachine demand in Asia, but core robot sales remain weak after last year’s EV-driven surge.
Management offered no guidance for FY3/26, citing tariff and FX uncertainty; we cut forecasts, with downside risk still looming large.
A ¥50bn buyback provides limited support, but shares may stay stuck until global capex trends and trade policy clarify.

Shimano (7309) | Coasting, Not Sprinting

By Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Shimano beat Q1 profit expectations but stuck to cautious full-year guidance, signalling stabilisation in bike markets rather than a real recovery.
Margins improved, inventories stabilised — but Shimano’s profitability remains well below historic highs, with recovery likely to stay slow and steady.
Strong balance sheet, resilient pricing, limited US exposure: Shimano looks a defensive bet, even if management’s guidance ends up on the optimistic side.

Fujifilm: Bio CDMO – A Success in the Making

Fujifilm announced today that the company has entered into a 10-year manufacturing supply agreement valued over US$3bn with Regeneron Pharma to provide US-based production to Regeneron’s biologic medicines.
Fujifilm’s Bio CDMO business, operating through FUJIFILM Diosynth Biotechnologies, has achieved significant success and growth, driven by a combination of strategic investments/acquisitions, with a focus on expanding its capabilities.
Bio CDMO business has achieved rapid expansion over the years, and aims to generate revenues of ¥200bn for FY03/2025 and reach ¥500bn by FY03/2028E which seems attainable to us.

Lee Jae-Myung’s Policies Likely to Negatively Impact Korean Banks