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Equity Bottom-Up Archives | Page 70 of 222 | Smartkarma

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Media IC Monitor: Himax Showing Relative Display Strength Thanks to Auto Exposure; CES Event Ahead and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Media IC Monitor: Himax Showing Relative Display Strength Thanks to Auto Exposure; CES Event Ahead


Media IC Monitor: Himax Showing Relative Display Strength Thanks to Auto Exposure; CES Event Ahead

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Himax shares have performed relatively well during December but have still significantly underperformed other fabless Media IC names over the last six months.
  • Comparing results data across all names, Himax has exhibited relative strength in Display IC revenue thanks to its strong position supplying automakers with automotive display technology.
  • Himax will be speaking at Nomura’s CES 2024 event and presenting its new edge AI camera products; This creates potential for positive news flow within two weeks.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: [Blue Lotus Logistics Sector Update]: Overseas E-Commerce Brews New Logistics Players and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • [Blue Lotus Logistics Sector Update]: Overseas E-Commerce Brews New Logistics Players
  • Micron. Earnings Puts & Takes. Take Your Pick
  • Prodia (PRDA IJ) – Diagnosing a Return to Healthy Profits
  • Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) – Dancing to a Digital Tune
  • Silergy (6415.TT): Chinese Analog IC Could Raise up Prices by About 15%.
  • AI PC Reality Check: PC Upgrade Cycle Ahead, But Worth a 50% 1M Acer Rally? Long Dell Vs. Short Acer


[Blue Lotus Logistics Sector Update]: Overseas E-Commerce Brews New Logistics Players

By Eric Wen

  • Ex-China e-commerce conducted by Chinese e-commerce platform will rise from 2022 GMV of US$ 61bn to US$ 297bn in 2025, with Pinduoduo, Alibaba, SHEIN and TikTok leading the charge.
  • These companies, however, are incubating their own last mile partners. The political uncertainty of Chinese e-commerce overseas is hindering development of the industry;
  • We see J&T as the main beneficiary of Chinese e-commerce overseas, which must eventually undergo an infrastructure upgrade…

Micron. Earnings Puts & Takes. Take Your Pick

By William Keating

  • Q1FY24 revenues of $4.7 billion, up 18% QoQ and up 16% YoY, and $100 million above guided high end, as already flagged on November 28
  • Q2FY24 guidance of $5.3 billion, a ~13% increase QoQ. This will once again be loss-making quarter to the tune of an EPS loss of 28 cents.
  • Things are looking up for Micron, but 2024 will still be a “recovery” year.

Prodia (PRDA IJ) – Diagnosing a Return to Healthy Profits

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Prodia (PRDA IJ) remains Indonesia’s relatively undiscovered diagnostics leader, with a strong market position, long-term relationships with the medical community, and an increasingly digital edge through its MyProdia app. 
  • The compamy continues to experience a high-base effect from COVID but has seen a dramatic increase in tests per visit as patients become increasingly helath conscious. 
  • Prodia (PRDA IJ) is significantly cheaper than its Indian comparables, trading on half the valuation, despite being a high-quality player tapping into a large increasingly health-conscious population.

Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) – Dancing to a Digital Tune

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) stands out from its SOE peers in the progress it has made in digitising its business through the Livin’ mobile app and KOPRA for corporate customers.
  • The bank continues to outperform in terms of loan growth and risk management, which is reflected in a higher ROE and lower credit costs as LAR continue to decline.  
  • Bank Mandiri should see a strong finish to the year well within guidance, with a healthy outlook for 2024 given its healthy capital position and competitive cost base. 

Silergy (6415.TT): Chinese Analog IC Could Raise up Prices by About 15%.

By Patrick Liao

  • A recent news report speculates that Analog Devices (ADI US)  is planning to raise prices by ~20%.
  • Silergy Corp (6415 TT) is reportedly considering a price increase of over 15% in the Chinese market.
  • We believe that now is a good time to invest in Silergy.

AI PC Reality Check: PC Upgrade Cycle Ahead, But Worth a 50% 1M Acer Rally? Long Dell Vs. Short Acer

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Taiwan PC makers have been top performers in the market; some may worry that their rallies have become over-extended by too much AI PC excitement.
  • We believe Dell may present a Long opportunity as the Long side to a Long/Short trade whereby one Sells Acer against it. Acer rose over 50% in December.
  • Dell will report its results end-February. We would Long Dell vs. Short Acer ahead of the Dell earnings event. We see more upside surprise potential in Dell.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): If Intel Was Split Up and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): If Intel Was Split Up, What Impact Will It Have on the Foundry Industry?
  • Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ) – The End of a Long Transition
  • Postcard from Patna | Breaking Sterotypes
  • Nihon Kohden (6849 JP): Apart from Apple Smartwatch Ban, Three More Reasons to Buy Shares
  • Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Parent Could Sell More of Its Stake; Thai 50x PER Vs. Taiwan 20x
  • A closer look at stock bond correlation
  • Retail Media: A Major New Income Stream Even for Wholesalers


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): If Intel Was Split Up, What Impact Will It Have on the Foundry Industry?

By Patrick Liao

  • We assume that Intel’s current business model is unable to fully meet the manufacturing needs in that case.
  • As for the Intel Foundry Business, we believe that there is potential upside for growth.
  • If Intel was doing great in Wafer Manufacturing Business, then why does it have to consider splitting up?

Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ) – The End of a Long Transition

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ) continued to experience a high post-COVID base effect in 3Q2023, with consumer habits shifting to leisure versus health plus there was a softening of consumer demand.
  • The company also experienced higher raw material prices and higher operating expenses which depressed margins but expectations are for a recovery in margins in 4Q2023 and FY2024. 
  • Kalbe Farma stands out as Indonesia’s largest pharmaceutical company with strong exposure to consumer health and nutritional products with rising health consciousness amongst Indonesians. Valuations do not reflect impending recovery.

Postcard from Patna | Breaking Sterotypes

By Pranav Bhavsar


Nihon Kohden (6849 JP): Apart from Apple Smartwatch Ban, Three More Reasons to Buy Shares

By Tina Banerjee

  • On December 26, Nihon Kohden (6849 JP) shares jumped ~15% as the company was a beneficiary of the ban on Apple (AAPL US)’s latest smartwatch models.
  • Nihon Kohden reported better-than-expected result in H1FY24. The company raised FY24 revenue forecast to ¥221.5B (+7% YoY) from ¥215.0B. The company has also raised FY24 operating and net profit guidance.
  • Currently consensus expects 2% YoY revenue growth for the company in FY25. With strong demand for existing products and new launches, the expectation seems to be conservative.  

Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Parent Could Sell More of Its Stake; Thai 50x PER Vs. Taiwan 20x

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Delta Thailand vs. Taiwan valuation differential has returned to an historically extreme level.
  • For 2024E & 2025E growth expectations continue to be similar for the two companies, yet Delta Thailand’s FY2024E PER is 50x while Delta Taiwan’s is 20x.
  • We see substantial relative value in Delta Taiwan and expect likely reversion of relative valuation due to latest return to historically extreme mismatch.

A closer look at stock bond correlation

By Fallacy Alarm

  • For me, the most unexpected aspect of recent events has been that both bonds and stocks moved up together.
  • My expectation for this year was that equities do well.
  • But I thought they would eventually shake off bonds. Economic resilience (or in fact acceleration) would then force bond investors to chase equities. 

Retail Media: A Major New Income Stream Even for Wholesalers

By Michael Causton

  • Seven Eleven and Familymart have already sent panic through the offices of major advertising agencies by setting up their own retail media networks. 
  • Now, Mitsubishi Shokuhin will do the same, using its trading company connections and  its existing ties to 10,000 clients at either end of the supply chain.
  • To personalise ads, it is working with the data analysis of geolocation company Unerry. 

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Shenzhou Intl (2313 HK):  Nike Guidance Cut Presents An Opportunity and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Shenzhou Intl (2313 HK):  Nike Guidance Cut Presents An Opportunity
  • Datamatics Global Services Ltd: Forensic Analysis
  • Grab Holdings (GRAB US) – Risks and Rewards in 2024
  • Nuvama: Stellar Start as an Independent Listed Entity
  • XL Axiata (EXCL IJ) – Riding the Wave of Price Reparation and Convergence
  • Sinopharm Group (1099.HK) – Performance Pressure May Continue Until 2024H1


Shenzhou Intl (2313 HK):  Nike Guidance Cut Presents An Opportunity

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Nike (NKE US) reported 2QFY24 results last week with a guidance cut, as the company cut FY24 full-year sales guidance to around +1%, compared to +mid-single-digit in the previous guidance. 
  • Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings (2313 HK) saw its stock drop by 8% the following day, given that Nike is Shenzhou’s most important customer, making up 30% of Shenzhou’s sales. 
  • Nike’s inventory is down another 14% yoy, and down high-single-digit compared to the previous quarter 1QFY24. 

Datamatics Global Services Ltd: Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

  • Datamatics Global Services (DATA IN) or DGSL has seen a good operational performance especially since F23, on the back of a difficult IT macro environment. 
  • Yet there are some discomforts on the forensic side, especially related to cash component. Low cash yield due to significant current account balances in subsidiaries raises alarm bells. 
  • We find opaqueness regarding some important disclosures including Ind AS 115- Revenues and Ind AS 116- Leases. Decision to increase remuneration cap size also leaves us perplexed.

Grab Holdings (GRAB US) – Risks and Rewards in 2024

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Grab Holdings looks set to move toward cashflow breakeven in 2H2024 having hit adjusted EBITDA breakeven in 3Q2023 as it successfully struck a delicate balance between growth and profitability.
  • The sale of 75% of Tokopedia by GoTo may mean more intense competition in Indonesia as it focuses on online delivery services but Grab is well-positioned to deal with this.
  • 2024 will see the potential completion of the Transcab deal plus a potential acquisition in food delivery increasing scale and competitiveness. Valuations are attractive relative to growth and financial position.

Nuvama: Stellar Start as an Independent Listed Entity

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • Nuvama reported its first quarterly result since its listing, as a demerged entity. It reported strong growth across all its business segments.
  • Wealth management revenues grew 30% YoY, adjusted for one-off accounting impact. Cyclical recovery in the capital markets segment further helped.
  • Nuvama has potential to scale up rapidly and grow its profitability exponentially led by growth and operating leverage. At the current valuation, an investment in Nuvama has potential to triple.

XL Axiata (EXCL IJ) – Riding the Wave of Price Reparation and Convergence

By Angus Mackintosh

  • XL Axiata (EXCL IJ) continues to stand as the most direct way to play the data demand in Indonesia as well as being the most convergent of the listed telcos.
  • Although it saw some seasonal slowdown in 3Q, the solid growth trajectory remains intact for this year with the completion of the Link Net restructuring driving convergence growth.
  • XL Axiata (EXCL IJ) raised data prices again in November and will continue to ride the wave of price reparation over the coming quarters in a more rational pricing environment. 

Sinopharm Group (1099.HK) – Performance Pressure May Continue Until 2024H1

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Sinopharm’s 23Q1-Q3 results were below expectations. The main reason for weak performance was due to the anti-corruption campaign, which led to profound and rapid changes in fundamentals and policy end.
  • In Q4, the impact of anti-corruption would weaken and traditional distribution business would recover.So, 23Q4 performance should be better than Q3, but 23H2 performance would still be worse than 23H1.
  • We lowered our forecast for 2023 – Revenue and net profit could achieve single-digit growth. Due to the high base in 23H1, growth in 24H1 could still be under pressure. 

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): The 1Q24F Revenue Outlook and the Progress for Intel and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): The 1Q24F Revenue Outlook and the Progress for Intel, MediaTek and Samsung.
  • 2024 High Conviction: Air China (753 HK) – Update on Proposed Share Placement
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: PC Shares Clearly On Santa’s Nice List; Soaring After AI PC Releases; Dell Trade
  • Qantas Airways (QAN AU | BUY | TP:AU$6.58): Smooth Operator
  • Thonburi Healthcare Group (THG TB): High Debt Has Clouded Near-Term Growth Prospect


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): The 1Q24F Revenue Outlook and the Progress for Intel, MediaTek and Samsung.

By Patrick Liao


2024 High Conviction: Air China (753 HK) – Update on Proposed Share Placement

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Air China (H) (753 HK) is proposing a new share placement to raise Rmb6bn and HK$2bn. EPS dilution is manageable at 6% so we view the proposal positively.  
  • The new equity will enhance book value by 11.5% and lower its gearing by 103pp to 399.8%. The full subscription by the parent is also a vote of confidence. 
  • Recent share price weakness is due to the overall weakness in the Chinese equity market, but both macro and operating environments are improving. Selldown is unjustified.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: PC Shares Clearly On Santa’s Nice List; Soaring After AI PC Releases; Dell Trade

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • PC Shares Soaring — After 1) Intel’s AI Everywhere AI chip launch, 2) Launch of First AI PCs, 3) Micron’s positive outlook for PCs in its latest results
  • Micron Analysis, Industry Takeaways: Memory Market TAM New Highs into 2025; SK Hynix Trade
  • Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium at a Decent Short Level; ASE Short Interest Declining

Qantas Airways (QAN AU | BUY | TP:AU$6.58): Smooth Operator

By Mohshin Aziz

  • Qantas Airways (QAN AU) (QAN) is enjoying the best time of its life on industry consolidation benefits, demand exceeding supply to many sectors, and flourishing air cargo  
  • Domestic Australia is an ironclad goldmine, with a benign competitive environment as the archrival is busy restructuring. International sector capacity deployment is picking up, but still deep in underserved territory     
  • Target price AUD6.58 (+23% UPSIDE), based on 7x CY2024 PE – long-term historical mean. AUD500 million share buyback should provide downside support 

Thonburi Healthcare Group (THG TB): High Debt Has Clouded Near-Term Growth Prospect

By Tina Banerjee

  • Thonburi Healthcare Group (THG TB) has underperformed most of its peers over the last six months. Thus far this year, the company’s financial performance also remained unimpressive.
  • Despite a healthy 29% YoY increase in normalized medical services revenue, normalized net profit decreased 8% YoY in 3Q23 as the company experienced significantly higher financial costs.
  • Although the company is repaying debts, debt level is still elevated and is expected to remain so in the near-term due to upcoming capex plans.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: KYEC (2449.TT): The Revenue Outlook Will Be an Upward Pickup in 2024F. and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • KYEC (2449.TT): The Revenue Outlook Will Be an Upward Pickup in 2024F.
  • Convenience Wear: Familymart Competes with Uniqlo in Basics
  • 23 Dividend Yielding Mid Caps – Report Card For 2023
  • Tencent/Netease: Netease Tops ’23 League Table with Most Games Approved
  • MediaTek (2454.TT): The Revenue Is Likely Upside Around 10% QoQ in 1Q24F.
  • Indocement Tunggal (INTP IJ) – A More Sustainable Cement Player
  • Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | No “Pent-Up Demand”! | Weak YTD Returns, Too | (December 2023)
  • Power Semiconductor Specialist Will Benefit from AI Yet Lagging Key Customers’ Share Price Rallies
  • China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.25) – Stock Picking Strategy, Logic Flaws Behind a Good Story, Tigermed
  • Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium at a Decent Short Level; ASE Short Interest Declining


KYEC (2449.TT): The Revenue Outlook Will Be an Upward Pickup in 2024F.

By Patrick Liao

  • It’s a greater chance that there will be an upward pickup in 2024F revenue for King Yuan Electronics Co, Ltd. (2449 TT), but the magnitude is hard to predict in 1H24.  
  • It is expected the revenue to decline by approximately -5% in 1Q24F.
  • However, the demand for CoWoS at a corporate level is expected to increase by about 10% in 2024F .

Convenience Wear: Familymart Competes with Uniqlo in Basics

By Michael Causton

  • The almost viral popularity of Familymart’s line of basic clothing items continues to grow and shows the real potential for convenience stores to diversify and adapt. 
  • Backed by Itochu, Familymart has expanded the product range and added new, limited edition items and brand collaborations, creating a success story that Seven Eleven may find hard to emulate.
  • Lawson, however, is controlled by Mitsubishi Corp which happens to have a clothing production arm that was behind the early success of Uniqlo and Adastria.

23 Dividend Yielding Mid Caps – Report Card For 2023

By Sameer Taneja

  • We compile a report card for dividend-yielding mid-caps that filter out on favorable characteristics of having net cash, decent ROEs, growth, etc. 
  • It’s been a disappointing year in share price performance owing to the negativity surrounding China and soft business performance in some cases, but there have been some bright spots.
  • We help provide a comprehensive list of our updates on some names and an outlook for 2024. It’s our last insight for 2023, so happy new year everyone!

Tencent/Netease: Netease Tops ’23 League Table with Most Games Approved

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • China announced game approval for the December batch. The number of games approved has increased compared to recent months.
  • The pace of China game approval appears to be accelerating, to the same level as pre-tightening.
  • Netease scored two approvals while Tencent scored one. Netease finished the year with the most games approved.

MediaTek (2454.TT): The Revenue Is Likely Upside Around 10% QoQ in 1Q24F.

By Patrick Liao

  • For the upcoming revenue outlook, MediaTek Inc (2454 TT) is likely to reach an upside of around 10% QoQ in 1Q24F.
  • MediaTek plans to release 12 million units of the Dimensity 9000 series in 2024F.
  • Mediatek’s target markets include China, India, and Southeast Asia, with China remaining the primary market of focus.

Indocement Tunggal (INTP IJ) – A More Sustainable Cement Player

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Indocement (INTP IJ) is trading close to 2-year lows, which seems unjustified given the ongoing recovery and a more positive outlook for FY2024. 
  • The company continues to grow its distribution reach to satisfy demand from IKN in Kalimantan, smelters in Sulawesi, and East Indonesia, with acquired Semen Grobogan feeding Central Java. 
  • Indocement (INTP IJ) continues to build on its sustainable credentials through the use of alternative fuels and reducing emissions and dust. Valauations are attractive trading on 6.8x FY2024E EV/EBITDA.

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | No “Pent-Up Demand”! | Weak YTD Returns, Too | (December 2023)

By Daniel Hellberg

  • “Pent-Up demand”? No signs of it anywhere in outbound or domestic metrics
  • Sluggish outbound demand, capacity trajectories continued to lag in November
  • YTD share performance weak, mirrors disappointing recovery in travel activity

Power Semiconductor Specialist Will Benefit from AI Yet Lagging Key Customers’ Share Price Rallies

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • UPI Semi is a specialist designer of electronic components and semiconductors for power management. Power management is a key performance factor for AI devices.
  • UPI’s clients include most of the world’s largest leading technology companies for semiconductor distribution and AI products.
  • UPI shares have lagged the strong performance of its clients — We see opportunity for UPI to now Outperform.

China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.25) – Stock Picking Strategy, Logic Flaws Behind a Good Story, Tigermed

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • In the Chinese pharmaceutical industry, stock selection strategies can be divided into “defensive” and “offensive”. We need to combine the judgment of the cycle to choose a stock picking strategy.
  • Domestic innovative pharmaceutical companies have the opportunity to create a high gross-margin incremental market of over RMB1 trillion through successful internationalization, but we pointed out the logical flaw behind.
  • We analyzed the key points of Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting (3347 HK). It seems insiders don’t have firm confidence in the prospects, so why should investors rush to buy the bottom?

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium at a Decent Short Level; ASE Short Interest Declining

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC: 10.5% Premium — Still a Good Level to Short the Spread
  • UMC: Trading at -1.1% Discount — Uncompelling, Wait for Deeper Discount
  • ASE: 8.8% Premium — Still Wait for Lower Levels Before Going Long

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Asics (7936) | Footwear Fallout as Nike’s Q2 Sends Sector Shockwaves and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Asics (7936) | Footwear Fallout as Nike’s Q2 Sends Sector Shockwaves
  • 2024 High Conviction: Apple’s AI Foray & Services to Power Its Journey to USD 4 Trillion Valuation
  • China Consumption Weekly (25 Dec 2023): Tencent, NetEase, NIO, Xpeng, Alibaba, Meituan, Douyin
  • Quantum Solutions (2338 JP): Look Again at Small Cap Play on AI Servers and Web-3.0 Gaming
  • International Housewares Retail Company Limited (1373 HK): H1 FY24 Off To a Bad Start


Asics (7936) | Footwear Fallout as Nike’s Q2 Sends Sector Shockwaves

By Mark Chadwick

  • Nike’s Q2 results lead to a 12% drop in its shares, affecting sector peers Onon, Skechers, and Asics with significant declines.
  • Challenging trading conditions in China and Europe, coupled with a subdued digital traffic outlook from Nike, raise broader concerns for the sector.
  • Asics stock declines 20% post-Nike’s fall, presenting an attractive buying opportunity with an estimated 20% upside, positioning Asics as a cost-effective play in the global performance running market.

2024 High Conviction: Apple’s AI Foray & Services to Power Its Journey to USD 4 Trillion Valuation

By Srinidhi Raghavendra

  • Despite being a hated stock among the Super Sevens, Apple shares are up >51% YTD this year. Apple has had little to claim for within captivating AI hype.
  • Apple is not a first mover. Its reputation is of a late comer. But its superior products with mind bending experiences blows competition out of the water.
  • Outperformance of iPhone 15, deepening services penetration, and roll out of AI-features will propel Apple to a USD 4 trillion market cap in 2024.

China Consumption Weekly (25 Dec 2023): Tencent, NetEase, NIO, Xpeng, Alibaba, Meituan, Douyin

By Ming Lu

  • Tencent and NetEase’s stock prices plunged after the release of the new law about online game.
  • China Passenger Car Association expects NEV will grow by 37% for 2023.
  • NIO got US2.2 billion investment from CYVN Holdings based in Abu Dahbi.

Quantum Solutions (2338 JP): Look Again at Small Cap Play on AI Servers and Web-3.0 Gaming

By Scott Foster

  • Quantum Solutions has given up 63% of its recent gain but has more NVIDIA GPU related orders in the pipeline. Keep an eye on the stock and the news flow.
  • The recent upward revision to sales and profit guidance has been followed by the announcement of a capital and business tie-up with Hajime Tabata’s JP Games.
  • The addition of Web-3.0 gaming to distribution of AI servers and Arm-based edge computing hardware could change the nature of the investment.

International Housewares Retail Company Limited (1373 HK): H1 FY24 Off To a Bad Start

By Sameer Taneja

  • H1 FY24 (May-Oct 2023) was off to a sluggish start for the company, with a 4.7%/35% decline in revenue/adjusted NPAT. 
  • The company cited soft demand, loss of business days due to inclement weather, one-offs in relocation or warehouses to efficient locations, and increased staff costs for poor profits.
  • Post the correction, the stock trades at a trailing PE of 11x and dividend yield of 8%, but we will have to wait further out as business conditions are worse. 

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: MillerKnoll and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • MillerKnoll, Inc. – Raising 3Q Estimate; Seeing Strength in Retail


MillerKnoll, Inc. – Raising 3Q Estimate; Seeing Strength in Retail

By Water Tower Research

  • Following a strong margin performance in 2Q, we are raising our 3QFY24 EPS estimate to $0.43, just below the midpoint of guidance, from $0.38.
  • The increase is the result of higher margin assumptions on a lower revenue forecast.
  • We are also reviewing and lowering our revenue assumptions for the remainder of FY24 and FY25. 

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: China Gaming Restrictions 2.0 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • China Gaming Restrictions 2.0
  • GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) – Plumbing for a More Certain Future
  • [Coupang Inc. (CPNG US, SELL, TP US$14.1) TP Change]: Farfetch May Glitter, but It Isn’t Gold
  • Micron Analysis, Industry Takeaways: Memory Market TAM New Highs into 2025; SK Hynix Trade
  • Asian Dividend Gems: O-Ta Precision Industry
  • 3Q Follow-Up – MARUKA FURUSATO Corporation (7128 JP)
  • Actinogen Medical – Phase IIb XanaMIA study opens first study site
  • Basilea Pharmaceutica – Refilling the pipeline for growth
  • AFT Pharmaceuticals – R&D pipeline strengthens with new candidate


China Gaming Restrictions 2.0

By Mio Kato

  • China has tightened restrictions on online games again driving significant falls in names such as Tencent and NetEase. 
  • While the move may surprise some given prior moves to restart approvals in our view the overall trend of regulation is not especially surprising. 
  • In particular, the tightened regulations appear to target the most important drivers of mobile gaming profitability and today’s large drops may actually be underreactions.

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) – Plumbing for a More Certain Future

By Angus Mackintosh

  • GoTo senior management hosted an analyst call last week to provide further details on both the reasons behind the Tokopedia sale and the potential synergies and benefits of the move. 
  • After the deal completes, GoTo will cede all management control but will receive a revenue stream from core GTV, which excludes digital products and certain big-ticket items.
  • Plumbing for this deal effectively de-risks its exposure to e-commerce given it is not required to inject any new capital but it does take away future optionality on Tokpedia’s growth.  

[Coupang Inc. (CPNG US, SELL, TP US$14.1) TP Change]: Farfetch May Glitter, but It Isn’t Gold

By Ying Pan

  • CPNG will provide Farfetch with a bridge loan to save it from default. In exchange, CPNG acquires Farfetch business and its US$ 460mn+ net debt.
  • For Farfetch to achieve profitability, CPNG will need to conduct major layoffs and cancel brand deals, but both are difficult to achieve, in our view.
  • CPNG only found limited overseas success in Taiwan, and EU poses an even greater challenge. We cut TP to US$ 14.1 on increased debt and FCF burden.

Micron Analysis, Industry Takeaways: Memory Market TAM New Highs into 2025; SK Hynix Trade

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Relative Value Trade in Micron Has Worked Since Our Last Piece; Results Blow Away Expectations
  • Memory Pricing Improvement Continues, Management Expects Pricing Increases Through Calendar Year 2024 and 2025
  • We Remain Structurally Long Memory; Now See Relative Value in SK Hynix

Asian Dividend Gems: O-Ta Precision Industry

By Douglas Kim

  • O Ta Precision Industry is a company based in Taiwan that mainly makes golf clubs for global golf equipment branded companies including Titleist, PXG, Mizuno, and Honma.
  • O-Ta Precision’s dividend yield averaged 9.2% annually from 2019 to 2022. Its annual dividend payout averaged 68.5% in the same period.
  • We like the company’s strong niche in the golf club OEM/ODM business with excellent list of customers with its its historically high dividend payout ratio and dividend yields. 

3Q Follow-Up – MARUKA FURUSATO Corporation (7128 JP)

By Sessa Investment Research

  • The Medium-Term Management Plan UNISOL includes the following FY26/12 targets, net sales of ¥200.0 bn, operating profit of ¥10.0 bn, and ROE of 8.5%.
  • MARUKA FURUSATO will enter the 2nd stage of the plan, a period of accelerated growth, starting in FY24/12. During the 1st stage of the plan, which was centered on establishing a base, various initiatives were undertaken.
  • The company promoted cross sales and expanded rebates through commercial flow integration, starting with streamlining administration departments, which included merging offices. 

Actinogen Medical – Phase IIb XanaMIA study opens first study site

By Edison Investment Research

Actinogen Medical has opened the first investigational study site for its Phase IIb XanaMIA trial of lead candidate Xanamem in patients with cognitive impairment (CI) associated with mild-to-moderate Alzheimer’s disease (AD). The study plans to enrol c 220 patients, who will be randomised to take Xanamem 10mg or placebo once daily for 36 weeks. The trial will concentrate on Australian test sites for the first 100 enrolled patients, and initial efficacy and safety results will be analysed when these patients reach 24 weeks of treatment. The results, expected in H1 CY25, could serve as a significant catalyst if data are positive. Nearer term, the next material milestone will be results, expected in Q2 CY24, from Actinogen’s Phase IIa XanaCIDD study in patients with CI and major depressive disorder (MDD). A positive XanaCIDD readout may lead to a share price re rating, and thereby may potentially accelerate the expansion of XanaMIA to US and global clinical study sites.


Basilea Pharmaceutica – Refilling the pipeline for growth

By Edison Investment Research

Basilea recently expanded its antifungal and antibacterial product pipeline with three new assets, including the latest addition, fosmanogepix. As a broad-spectrum antifungal (including multidrug-resistant fungi), fosmanogepix has a novel mechanism of action, a key differentiator in the rise of antifungal drug resistance. Two Phase III trials are expected to commence in mid- and late-2024 (in candidemia/invasive candidiasis and invasive mould infections, respectively) and a successful launch has the potential to refill the pipeline as the company’s lead asset Cresemba matures. We update our estimates and valuation to reflect the revised FY23 guidance and incorporate the potential contribution from fosmanogepix. Our overall valuation increases to CHF910.4m or CHF76.0/share (from CHF797.8m or CHF66.6/share previously). In the more immediate term, we view the US New Drug Application (NDA) decision on Zevtera (PDUFA date of 3 April 2024) as the next big catalyst for the company.


AFT Pharmaceuticals – R&D pipeline strengthens with new candidate

By Edison Investment Research

AFT Pharmaceuticals has bolstered its R&D pipeline with the addition of a new product candidate, HY-090, a locally acting novel molecule, targeting Burning Mouth Syndrome (BMS), a condition with no curative treatments. AFT will be developing the asset in collaboration with Hyloris Pharmaceuticals (existing development partner for Maxigesic IV). While Hyloris will be responsible for product formulation, manufacturing and commercialisation in Europe, AFT will take care of clinical trials and related modalities, as well as commercialisation ex-Europe. The US activities will be co-managed by the two partners. HY-090 is one of two R&D assets that was already in active consideration by AFT and diligence work is ongoing for another three. A robust R&D program has always been a focus area for AFT and we believe an active pipeline will be instrumental in driving growth and increasing the company’s international footprint.


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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Alibaba’s Eddie Wu and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Alibaba’s Eddie Wu, Strategic Leader or Ma’s Partner?
  • Plover Bay (1523 HK): Interesting Net Cash /8% Dividend Yield Play/ With ROEs Above 50%
  • Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) – Rationalising the Lawson Buildout
  • Intel’s AI Everywhere In New York
  • Edelweiss: Hitting All the Right Notes to Scale Up Businesses and Unlock Value
  • COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK): Time for Another Look
  • AOT Vs MAHB: Part Deux
  • 2Q Follow-Up – Japan System Techniques (4323 JP)
  • Carnival Corp’s Per Passenger Revenue
  • MillerKnoll, Inc. – 2QFY24 Results Deliver Strong Margins; Orders Challenged


Alibaba’s Eddie Wu, Strategic Leader or Ma’s Partner?

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • In the latest wave of management changes, Eddie Wu, Jack Ma’s trusted associate has staged a comeback, securing pivotal roles.
  • We believe this is not a mere coincidence. Jack Ma seems to be orchestrating moves from behind the scenes, with Eddie Wu strategically positioned to represent his influence.
  • The Chinese government’s reaction to Jack Ma’s increased involvement may impact Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)‘s price performance in the short term.

Plover Bay (1523 HK): Interesting Net Cash /8% Dividend Yield Play/ With ROEs Above 50%

By Sameer Taneja

  • Plover Bay Technologies (1523 HK) is another exciting play from the stable of net cash (12% of market cap) and high dividend yield (8% FY22) companies.  
  • The company develops networking technologies that enable supercharged connectivity. Users can build always-on networks anywhere by combining fixed, mobile, and satellite connectivity. Its major brands are Peplink and Pepwave.
  • Plover Bay is a high net margin (25%) and high ROE (>50%) business that has 9-10% CAGR revenue growth (trading at 11x PE) with catalysts up ahead. 

Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) – Rationalising the Lawson Buildout

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Sumber Alfaria Trijaya has decided to pare back the velocity of the expansion of Lawson convenience stores as it consolidates its leading position and maximises efficiencies.
  • 4Q2023 saw slower growth in November but December should be stronger, whilst its store expansion for 2023 reached 1,700 new stores, with plans for around 1,300 new stores in 2024.
  • Sumber Alfaria Trijaya remains the best way to play the minimarket space in Indonesia. 4Q 2023 numbers should provide a positive catalyst given it is the seasonally high quarter. 

Intel’s AI Everywhere In New York

By William Keating

  • Intel’s “AI Everywhere” event turned out to be little more than last minute launches client and server products promised for 2023
  • While these products have little new in the way of ground-breaking AI hardware, the entire event was infused with AI marketing to the highest degree
  • Ostensibly Intel’s great hope in AI hardware acceleration, Gaudi, featured solely as a last minute gimmick announcing that Gaudi3 was “out of the fab and into the lab”. Yawn!

Edelweiss: Hitting All the Right Notes to Scale Up Businesses and Unlock Value

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • Edelweiss reported a decent Q2FY24 with ex-Insurance PAT of INR 153cr vs INR 133cr YoY. All the businesses – ARC, Asset Management and Credit – performed well.
  • Edelweiss is making decent progress in the Credit business aided by the co-lending business model. 80% of disbursals in NBFC and 30% in Housing Finance in Q2FY24 were through co-lending.
  • Edelweiss is in process of selling a minority stake in its Alternative Asset Management business for value unlocking. It plans to sell 10-20% equity stake for INR 1500-2000cr.

COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK): Time for Another Look

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • The 20% retreat in the share price of Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation (1138 HK) from the peak has well reflected the plunge in 3Q23 VLCC rates and 10% earnings downgrade.
  • 4Q23 VLCC rates have rebounded 78.4% QoQ. Re-routing due to recent Houthi attacks on commercial ships at the Red Sea has reduced effective supply and is positive to rates.
  • Heightened energy security needs will drive demand. The medium-term supply pressure is mild as the VLCC orderbook equals just 2% of the existing fleet, fueling ROE for FY23-25F. 

AOT Vs MAHB: Part Deux

By Henry Soediarko

  • Airports of Thailand (AOT TB) 6m24 revenue growth rates are healthy, supported by the growth in departure passenger service charges and the coming back of concession revenues.
  • AOT labor expenses have expanded at an unprecedented level, even higher than pre-COVID levels, while Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB MK) kept them under control.
  • Book profit on half of the exposure and wait for the next quarter to see if AOT labor expenses will stay high.

2Q Follow-Up – Japan System Techniques (4323 JP)

By Sessa Investment Research

  • Fully independent DX provider: Japan System Techniques (JAST) is an independent system integrator that develops and sells software and systems, which celebrated its 50th anniversary.
  • The company develops systems for customers in a variety of industries and sectors, including finance, manufacturing, distribution, services, public services, telecommunications, transportation, and science and technology.
  • Furthermore, as a developer, the company has three main JAST-branded software offerings for its customers, namely GAKUEN for the education industry, BankNeo for the financial industry, and JMICS (JAST Medical Insurance Checking System) for the medical industry and the profitability of these own-brand businesses is very high.

Carnival Corp’s Per Passenger Revenue

By Calcbench

  • Lots of financial analysts and other Calcbench users might be wishing they could sail away on a tropical cruise as we enter the holiday slow season, so perhaps it’s a good time to visit Carnival Corp. ($CCL) and the company’s latest financial performance. 
  • Carnival filed its latest quarterly (and fiscal year-end) earnings release on Thursday, and top-line numbers looked pretty good for a company still recovering from the pandemic’s apocalyptic effects four years ago.
  • Quarterly revenue jumped 40.6 percent from the year-ago period, to $5.4 billion; annual revenue soared 77.5 percent to $21.6 billion. 

MillerKnoll, Inc. – 2QFY24 Results Deliver Strong Margins; Orders Challenged

By Water Tower Research

  • After market close on December 20, MillerKnoll reported 2QFY24 adjusted EPS of $0.59, ahead of our estimate of $0.55 and the consensus mean of $0.54.
  • Margins were better than expected, while revenue of $949.5 million came in at the low end of guidance.
  • Sales in the Americas segment disappointed relative to our expectations.

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