Health Care Archives | Page 69 of 137 | Smartkarma

• With a few weeks to go in the review period, CGN Power (1816 HK) and Yankuang Energy Group (1171 HK) could be added to the ETF in March.
• China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK) and Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK) are potential deletions while there is another stock close to deletion zone.
• There are a lot of shorts on Yankuang Energy in terms of days of ADV and as a percentage of float while short interest on the other stocks is lower.

• Riding on multiple export contracts, Caregen Co Ltd (214370 KS) was confident of achieving KRW60–100B revenue from ProGsterol in 2023. However, during 9M23, ProGsterol clocked revenue of KRW8.5B.
• ProGsterol should rebound in this year, with the resumption of registration process in each country. Direct entry in the U.S. should be the strong catalyst for ProGsterol revenue this year.
• Caregen is developing an eye drop for wet macular degeneration. This is in phase 1 trial. The compay is preparing for phase 2 trial for COVID-19 nasal spray in Israel.

• Innovent has launched head-to-head phase III clinical trial of Mazdutide and Semaglutide. If the challenge is successful, it will have milestone significance. Domestic sales of Mazdutide will look very promising.
• Innovent received negative news on CEACAM5 ADC/KRAS G12C.When independent R&D cannot be relied upon, Innovent has to seek new sources of growth to make up for the remaining sales gap.
• There’s nothing wrong with Innovent’s development strategy by balancing both success rate and efficiency, although Innovent is hard to become a leader in cutting-edge R&D. We remain optimistic on Innovent.

• WuXi XDC remains our top pick in China healthcare. We’re optimistic about its share price performance. Cansino is stronger than imagined, and we recommend investors to be patient with it.
• The future competitive landscape of GLP-1s would present very different situation from traditional drugs. Innovent’s Mazdutide could be a “dark horse” if the head-to-head trial against Semaglutide is successful.
• For GLP-1s, it will be difficult to shake the first-mover position of the first two giants (Semaglutide and Tirzepatide) unless latecomers are able to show higher marginal benefits.

• Stay long in HS Holdings (8699 JP).But beware. It is possible that there is a slightly uncomfortable outcome. 
• Celltrion Pharm (068760 KS) is up 37% since the Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)/Celltrion Healthcare (091990 KS) merger completed; and Inc is up 22%. That’s A LOT of expectation baked in. 
• NEW NISA details are cute, but governance and corporate buybacks matter more. If better education induces a swing from cash/deposits to risky assets, much of that will happen outside NISA.

• A double dose of stubs this week as Hanmi Science (008930 KS) comes up “cheap” on my monitor.
• Preceding my comments on Hanmi are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
• These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Newron has announced positive 12-month data from its Phase II extension trial (study 015) assessing evenamide in 161 patients with treatment-resistant schizophrenia (TRS). The results demonstrate desirable safety and tolerability, as well as durable efficacy of evenamide, showing statistically significant improvements (p-value <0.001) in all key efficacy measures (PANSS, CGI-S and LOF) versus baseline. We believe the results are favourable for Newron’s TRS programme and bolster the company’s plans to launch a potentially pivotal Phase III trial, which management expects to commence in Q224. We note that the company is also gearing up to share results from the Phase III trial (study 008A) for patients with poorly managed schizophrenia in March 2024, which could represent another significant catalyst for investor attention.

• Cloudbreak Pharma, a China-based clinical-stage biotechnology company, plans to raise up to US$200m via a Hong Kong listing.
• In this note, we examine the company’s core products, namely CBT-001 and CBT-009, for pterygium and juvenile myopia respectively.
• We are seeing a lack of convincing sustainable innovation from the company. Pre-IPO investors and management are mediocre.

• Alteogen Inc (196170 KS)‘s first proprietary recombinant human hyaluronidase liquid product, Tergase (ALT-BB4) is currently under approval process in Korea and is expected to receive approval in early 2024.  
• Tergase is a stand-alone hyaluronidase product that can be used for the treatment of various medical conditions, such as pain relief, edema treatment, and hyaluronic acid filler removal.
• Compared to commercially available animal-derived hyaluronidase products in the market, Tergase is a highly purified product of high-quality with very few impurities and an excellent side effect profile.

• After biopharmaceuticals developer and producer Celltrion Inc (068270 KS) recently completed its merger with Celltrion Healthcare (091990 KS), Celltrion Pharm (068760 KS) came (more) into focus.
• Pharma is now up ~37% since Inc and Healthcare merged.
• That’s quite a lot of expectation baked in.  Probably too much.

• First of all, happy new year to all my readers! May 2024 bring market beating returns for everyone.
• Again I managed to underperform my blog stock picks by concentrating in the wrong stocks.
• Although I still ended up over 20% for the year, it was disappointing considering I was getting close to 30% in July.

• The essential difference between QuantumPharm and InSilico in terms of business models is that InSilico is an end-to-end generative AI-driven biotech but QuantumPharm is more of a platform-based service provider.
• It’s difficult for QuantumPharm to achieve significant increase in revenue scale in short time,because the service fee amount is usually not large, and it takes time to accumulate order volume.
• If there is no substantial performance contribution, these good stories would not bring about a sustained leap in valuation. QuantumPharm’s valuation in last funding round before IPO is too expensive. 

• As the saying goes, “sector rotation is the lifeblood of a bull market.” That appears to be exactly what is going on as we kick off 2024.
• Leadership areas that have significantly outperformed since the October 2023 lows are starting to pull back rather hard — and on above average volume (XLK, SMH, IGV, ARKK, IPO, BITQ)
• Other Sectors are picking up the slack, namely Health Care (XLV), Staples (XLP), Utilities (XLU), Energy (XLE), Financials (XLF), and Real Estate (XLRE). Shift exposure toward value and defensives

• Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma (1558 HK) is set to benefit from the recent upsurge in respiratory illness in China. The company commands ~90% share of anti-flu drug market in China.
• In 1H23, HEC Pharma’s revenue jumped 148% YoY to RMB3.2B, mainly due to spiking flu cases in China. A strong flu season in 4Q23, should boost H2 performance.
• Despite a 43% rally in HEC Pharma share price over the last six months, the shares are trading at forward P/E of just 4.8x.

• We see 30 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 28 potential deletes (on market cap and liquidity) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March.
• We expect 26 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 25 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only.
• There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.

• WuXi XDC looks like “an outlier” among domestic CXOs – Its share price has performed well so far. As a niche player, WuXi XDC’s short-term performance growth is relatively guaranteed.
• We analyzed the valuation of WuXi XDC Cayman (2268 HK) under different scenarios. How much upside WuXi XDC’s valuation would have depends on the future real market size of ADCs.
• We’re conservative about whether we could have a US$50 billion ADC market. The “lucky” part for WuXi XDC is the current ADC market brings “a safe window period” for investors.

• Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP) shares corrected more than 60% from highs over the disappointment from Alzheimer’s disease drug Leqembi. During H1FY24, Leqembi reported revenue of just ¥400M ($3M).
• With approximately 40% revenue contribution, anti-cancer drug Lenvima is the top selling drug of Eisai. In the U.S., Lenvima patent protection will start to expire in US in October 2025.
• In December, Eisai has submitted a marketing authorization application in Japan for tasurgratinib for biliary tract cancer. If approved, tasurgratinob will be a late entrant in a crowded market.

• Pyridam Farma (PYFA IJ) is acquiring Probiotec Ltd (PBP AU), a leading contract manufacturer and packer of prescription and OTC pharmaceuticals, complementary medicines, consumer health products, and FMCG.  
• Under the terms of the scheme, Probiotec shareholders will receive cash consideration of A$3.00 per share. This implies an equity value of ~A$251M for Probiotec and enterprise value of ~A$326M.
• The acquisition will add an attractive high-margin revenue stream to Pyridam. Through the acquisition of Probiotec, Pyridam will be capable to reach a wider market, thereby increasing its market share.

• Ministry of Finance and National Health Commission issued new policy strictly prohibiting public hospitals from borrowing to purchase medical equipment, which will change the investment logic of medical device sector.
• “PD-1+ADC” is expected to replace “PD-1+chemotherapy” as the first-line standard therapy. This will be a huge market. So, good story of ADC CDMO (such as WuXi XDC) would continue.
• The inspiration that AstraZeneca’s acquisition of Gracell brings to investors is IPO isn’t the only way for exit.Being acquired is also good, which will become more important in the future.

• Cardinal Health delivered a solid result and managed an all-around beat in the last quarter, exceeding expectations and achieving significant milestones.
• Consolidated enterprise results showcased a 10% increase in total revenue to $54.8 billion, primarily fueled by the Pharma segment.
• Despite flat revenue of $3.8 billion in the Medical segment, the company exceeded expectations in Q1.

• The Cigna Group surpassed Wall Street’s revenue and earnings expectations, maintaining the momentum for a sustained year in 2023.
• The company’s health services and benefits platforms continue to demonstrate strength, aligning with its mission to grow and serve effectively.
• They reported a total revenue of $49 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $6.77.

• Eli Lilly and Company delivered a positive result and managed an all-around beat in the last quarter.
• The company reported a notable 37% increase in revenue compared to the same period in 2022.
• Research and development expenses saw a 34% increase, primarily due to higher development expenses for late-stage assets and increased investments in early-stage research.

• Gilead Sciences, Inc. delivered an all-around beat in the previous quarter, showcasing a 5% increase in the base business compared to the same period in 2022.
• Biktarvy achieved a remarkable 12% growth from the corresponding quarter in 2022.
• The increasing adoption of Trodelvy, a TROP-2-directed ADC, and cutting-edge cell therapies further fueled this upward trajectory.

• Illumina delivered mixed results for the previous quarter, with revenues below the analyst consensus.
• Despite lower revenue, non-GAAP net income surpassed expectations at $52 million or $0.33 per diluted share.
• While Core Illumina sequencing consumables revenue dropped 4% year-over-year, clinical sequencing consumables experienced a 10% growth, mitigating the decline.

• Insulet Corporation managed to exceed analyst expectations in terms of revenue as well as earnings.
• During the quarter, their revenue surpassed expectations, driven by the exceptional success of Omnipod 5, the revolutionary automated insulin delivery system.
• Omnipod 5’s impact was evident in accelerated new customer starts, with a remarkable 45% year-over-year revenue growth in the UK.

• Medtronic plc delivered an all-around beat in the previous quarter, delivering mid-single-digit revenue growth across diverse business segments and global regions.
• Cardiovascular, Neuroscience, and Medical Surgical sectors all contributed to this growth, with Diabetes witnessing an acceleration to high single-digit growth.
• Synergistic businesses, encompassing Aortic, Coronary, Cardiac Surgery, and Endoscopy, achieved mid-single-digit growth, with standout performances in various segments.

• Mettler-Toledo International delivered a mixed set of results in its most recent result, with revenues falling short of Wall Street expectations but above-par earnings.
• In the third quarter, they reported sales of $942.5 million, indicating a 5% decline in local currency, while US dollar-based sales dropped by 4%, with currency effects contributing a 1% increase.
• In the Industrial business, sales declined 6% in the quarter due to weak core industrial product sales, particularly in China and the Americas.

• Novo Nordisk A/S delivered a strong result and managed an all-around beat in the last quarter, boasting over 30% organic growth in both the top and bottom lines.
• The quarter witnessed an impressive milestone, with the company reaching 40 million people affected by diabetes.
• Financially, the company achieved a remarkable 33% sales growth and a 37% increase in operating profit at constant exchange rates.

• Prodia (PRDA IJ) remains Indonesia’s relatively undiscovered diagnostics leader, with a strong market position, long-term relationships with the medical community, and an increasingly digital edge through its MyProdia app. 
• The compamy continues to experience a high-base effect from COVID but has seen a dramatic increase in tests per visit as patients become increasingly helath conscious. 
• Prodia (PRDA IJ) is significantly cheaper than its Indian comparables, trading on half the valuation, despite being a high-quality player tapping into a large increasingly health-conscious population.

• Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ) continued to experience a high post-COVID base effect in 3Q2023, with consumer habits shifting to leisure versus health plus there was a softening of consumer demand.
• The company also experienced higher raw material prices and higher operating expenses which depressed margins but expectations are for a recovery in margins in 4Q2023 and FY2024. 
• Kalbe Farma stands out as Indonesia’s largest pharmaceutical company with strong exposure to consumer health and nutritional products with rising health consciousness amongst Indonesians. Valuations do not reflect impending recovery.

• On December 26, Nihon Kohden (6849 JP) shares jumped ~15% as the company was a beneficiary of the ban on Apple (AAPL US)’s latest smartwatch models.
• Nihon Kohden reported better-than-expected result in H1FY24. The company raised FY24 revenue forecast to ¥221.5B (+7% YoY) from ¥215.0B. The company has also raised FY24 operating and net profit guidance.
• Currently consensus expects 2% YoY revenue growth for the company in FY25. With strong demand for existing products and new launches, the expectation seems to be conservative.