This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma.
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1. Is SK Hynix (000660 KS) About to Restart Its Rally? (Tactical Outlook)
- After losing 58% of its value from its peak at the end of June, SK Hynix (000660 KS) started a recovery and it may close this week up.
- If confirmed on Friday, this would be the stock first weekly positive close since June 19th, roughly 2 months ago.
- This insight leverages our model to assess whether SK Hynix‘s current trend pattern indicates the start of a new rally or merely a dead cat bounce.
2. SK Hynix (000660 KS): 130% Volatility and 2x Leveraged ETF Rebalancing
- Since 2x leveraged ETFs linked to SK hynix (000660 KS) launched in late May, volatility in the underlying stock has increased significantly.
- Although daily rebalancing can amplify price moves, the data do not indicate that it does so systematically.
- Overnight and intraday returns are largely uncorrelated across the sample, although they tend to reinforce each other on days with extreme moves.
3. Tencent (700 HK) Tactical Outlook Ahead of Earnings: Possible Sell-Off, Buy the Dip
- Tencent (700 HK) will report earnings on August 12th. This tactical view updates the Tencent’s analysis presented on July 17th with new support and targets calculated ahead of the earnings.
- The Market expectation is framed as solid core operational delivery under margin pressure. Any minimal disappointment could lead to a (continuation of the) sell-off.
- At the end of last week our model flagged the stock as overbought. Although a continuation of the rally is possible for a third week or more, it appears unlikely.
4. Alibaba (9988 HK / BABA US): Earnings Date Announced; Options Set to Reprice
- Alibaba (9988 HK, BABA US) will report its June Quarter 2026 results on 20 August and hold its conference call at 7:30 p.m. Hong Kong time.
- Implied volatility comparisons show U.S.-listed options are already repricing for the event, while HK-listed prices have yet to reflect the expected event-related volatility.
- The new HK weekly contract expiring on 21 August, together with later weekly and monthly expiries, should drive active Hong Kong trading, with potential spillover into the next U.S. session.
5. WEEKLY Tactical Recap: SK Hynix, CATL, Samsung Electronics, Nikkei 225, GLD, TSLA, Etc.
- We present a WEEKLY tactical global macro recap/analysis for several markets and stocks we track, grouped by sector.
- We apply our quantitative models to each instrument’s trend, to determine which stocks/markets are just starting a trend, are in the middle of it, or are about to end it.
- Amazon, GLD and ASX 200 are quite overbought. Samsung Electronics , Bank of China (3988 HK) and United States Oil Fund LP (USO US) are oversold.
6. NIFTY50 Tactical Outlook Post Index Rebalance
- The NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) on August 10th announced the removal of Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN) and added Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE IN).
- The flow and impact is estimated to be big according to Brian Freitas. We applied our model research to the NIFTY to analyze the current trend and potential upcoming reversals.
- The NIFTY Index is mildly overbought at the moment, this week may give way to a reversal.
7. Samsung Elec (005930 KS): August Gains Fail to Stem 2x Leveraged ETF Outflows
- Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) stabilised in the first half of August, gaining 4.6%, while the 2x Leveraged Index rose 6.8%.
- Despite the rebound, leveraged ETFs recorded KRW 372bn of net outflows, reducing combined AUM by 2% in August MTD.
- Investor flows—not performance alone—are driving AUM. Their effect on demand for Samsung shares may be amplified or offset by the ETFs’ daily leverage rebalancing.
8. Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly Aug 03–07: Day-Of-Week Pattern Emerges as Volumes and Vol Fall
- Hong Kong equities paused after a strong run, with market breadth weakening despite a continued upside skew in individual stock returns.
- Single stock option activity fell sharply, with weaker Call trading accounting for much of the decline.
- HSI implied volatility remains subdued relative to its recent history, while single stock implied vols remain comparatively elevated.
