Weekly Top Ten Equity Derivatives – Aug 3, 2025

1. Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of July 28 – August 1

By Nico Rosti, MRM Research

• A quick synoptic look at the tactical models for the key indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week July 28 – August 1.
• OVERSOLD: China Mobile (941 HK) , Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU) are just mildly oversold, NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) is oversold.
• OVERBOUGHT: Amazon (AMZN US) , Alphabet (GOOG US) , NVIDIA (NVDA US) , Toyota Motor (7203 JP) , Softbank Group (9984 JP) , Hang Seng Index , Nikkei 225 INDEX 

2. Rio Tinto (RIO AU) 1H25 Results on 30 July: Earning Yield from Volatility Premium

By Gaudenz Schneider

• Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) / (RIO LN) / (RIO US) is scheduled to report its 2025 half year results on Wednesday, 30 July 2025 at 16:15 AEST.
• Actionable Option Strategy: Options imply a move noticeably larger than the historical average, opening up a potential short-term yield opportunity. Trade setup discussed in detail.
• Why Read: The Insight outlines yield-focused short-vol strategies, the expected volatility crush, and a forecast for Rio’s interim dividend based on payout policy and timing.

3. AAPL Q3 Earnings: Misses Are Rare, But Performance a Red Flag

By John Ley, Clifton Derivatives

• AAPL has been an underperformer since its last earnings report which stands out against the backdrop of a stock that rarely misses earnings expectations.
• We take a closer look at implied volatility and the earnings-day move priced by the options market.   
• Volatility metrics and historical earnings reactions are analyzed to help frame expectations.  

4. META Profit Target UPDATED (Pre-Earnings July 30th)

By Nico Rosti, MRM Research

• Meta (META US) will report its earnings today July 30th, after the Close.
• If the earnings are positive, we predict a rally that could last up to 3 weeks and bring Meta (META US) at 758, above its recent all time high peaks.
• The rally could last up to 3 weeks – this is a short-term tactical forecast, it doesn’t offer a view of where the stock could be several weeks from now.

5. Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (July 28–Aug 01): Reversal Hits, Breadth Collapses, Vol Steady

By John Ley, Clifton Derivatives

• HSI reversed course with four straight down days to close the week sharply lower.
• Breadth collapsed, with only a small fraction of names finishing higher; option volumes rose into the decline with Puts taking more than their usual share of activity.
• Implied vols fell on the week, erasing last week’s gains and not showing signs of stress at this point.

6. MSFT Q4 Earnings: Exceedingly Calm Trading Drags Implied Vol Lower

By John Ley, Clifton Derivatives

• MSFT is set to report Q4 earnings after the market close on Wednesday, July 30.
• We examine the implied volatility and projected earnings-day move following a near 30% rally since the last report.
• Volatility metrics and historical earnings reactions are analyzed to help frame expectations.

7. Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Tactical Outlook After Disappointing Earnings

By Nico Rosti, MRM Research

• Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) 2Q earnings have been somehow disappointing for investors.
• We don’t dissect the earnings details, as market reactions—regardless of headlines—almost always fall within the behavioral range defined by our model.
• What we see right now is FEAR: Samsung Electronics was rallying hard, reached the tails area in our model, then retreated back sharply after the earnings.

8. S&P/ASX 200 Tactical Outlook Ahead of Australia’s Earnings Season Kickoff

By Nico Rosti, MRM Research

• The Australian Earnings Season will begin in early August. The S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) suffered a minor setback last week, closed the week down but it’s already rallying higher.
• Our profit target for this rally is 8824 (Q2 resistance target). It could go a bit higher than that but we think it will not reach Q3 resistance at 8996.
• If for some reason the index returns below last week’s Close, the next support level to watch is 8605 (Q2).